Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[wxsmwhrms]

Not so sure that shear will abate enough to develop much beyond a broad surface low in the monsoonal gyre, but with the lack of a competing EPAC storm this time and a rather complex upper air pattern of a Plains trough and frontal boundary stalling along or just inland of the NW/Central Gulf Coast may allow a surface feature to fester offshore of Tampico to La Pesca focusing heavy rains once again to Mexico/Coastal Texas/Louisiana and on E into Florida. This looks like a rainer more than anything.

 

Where 95L is currently located right now east of Belize, shear is not a problem as the upper level flow is easterly.  We'll see if it actually happens, but the models suggest shear will become much less of a factor over the southern Gulf within 48-72 hours.

[DopplerWx]

i am so desperate for a legit cyclone it is insane.  at this point i don't care if ti is a fish i just want SOMETHING that actually resembles a hurricane.

[Ed Lizard]

Looking at imagery of 95L, and there is something about driving into the Yucatan that makes waves look healthier.  Noticed it with Fernand and the Tampico TD.

 

 

[Cheeznado]

The CMC (for a few runs in a row now) and now the UKMET have some sort of low (more or less some combo of the southern Gulf low and a trough digging in from the westerlies) in the northern GOM then into the southern US in about 5-6 days. I will be interested to see if the Euro at least trends in this direction. I hope so, we really need some rain here.

[thewxmann]

i am so desperate for a legit cyclone it is insane.  at this point i don't care if ti is a fish i just want SOMETHING that actually resembles a hurricane.

 

WPAC.

 

Now, if you mean legit *Atlantic* cyclone, you might have to wait at least a year (and possibly more, if we remain on our decadal slump).

[wxsmwhrms]

Looking at imagery of 95L, and there is something about driving into the Yucatan that makes waves look healthier.  Noticed it with Fernand and the Tampico TD.

 

No joke, not looking half bad.  MSLP down in the 1008-1009 mb range along the Belize coast.

 

Recon scheduled next couple of days. 

 

NOUS42 KNHC 171456

REPRPD

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT TUE 17 SEPTEMBER 2013

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013

         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-108

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

    1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)

       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71

       A. 18/2000Z                    A. 19/1200Z

       B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE

       C. 18/1700Z                    C. 19/0830Z

       D. 20.0N 91.5W                 D. 20.5N 94.0W

       E. 18/1630Z TO 18/2100Z        E. 19/1130Z TO 19/1530Z

       F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT        F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  CONTINUE 12 HOURLIES WHILE SYSTEM

       REMAINS A THREAT.

    3. REMARKS:

       A. RESEARCH:  GLOBAL HAWK NA872 TO FLY HUMBERTO WEDNESDAY WITH

          A TAKEOFF OF 19/1100Z. 66 DROPS PLANNED.

 

[wxmx]

And especifically Belize ... all 3 organized systems (Fernand, TD8 and Ingrid) had a "direct landfall" from the low level vorticity that triggered the cyclones in that country. Then they all went the same way and splashed very close to Laguna de Términos with indications of a closed low.

[MarkSC]

I'm surprised there isn't more activity here.  The setup for 95L is complicated and interesting. Maybe people are assuming this will just go into Mexico, but that seems unlikely with the trough coming this weekend. 

[GaWx]

Up to 40%/60% TC development chances now per 2 PM TWO.

[Ryneone]

I'm surprised there isn't more activity here.  The setup for 95L is complicated and interesting. Maybe people are assuming this will just go into Mexico, but that seems unlikely with the trough coming this weekend. 

 

I like the scenario of what ever 95L turns into moving up the Texas coast at the time the frontal boundary is dropping into Texas!

[Akeem the African Dream]

I'm surprised there isn't more activity here.  The setup for 95L is complicated and interesting. Maybe people are assuming this will just go into Mexico, but that seems unlikely with the trough coming this weekend. 

 

 

It will be sloppy and sheared if it moves Northeast through the gulf.  It won;t be that exciting.

[wxsmwhrms]

It will be sloppy and sheared if it moves Northeast through the gulf.  It won;t be that exciting.

 

That is certainly one possible scenario.  However, I will say that I think another possible scenario, particularly given the decent amount of organization 95L is already showing, is a system becoming more robust than the models currently indicate in the light shear environment of the SW Gulf over the next several days, and then being picked up by the trough.  While the upper level flow would be increasing in this scenario, the system speed would likely also be increasing and there could be some baroclinic enhancement as well as currently implied by the UK and GGEM. 

 

I am NOT saying that will happen or that it is even anywhere near a likely solution - more agreeing with what MarkSC says that it's a complex setup.  But the fact that the models are showing a pretty favorable environment in the southern Gulf for several days (with the assumption of this current northerly shear relaxing) would indicate to me it's not a setup where I would totally write off a higher end solution.

[icebreaker5221]

I'm surprised there isn't more activity here.  The setup for 95L is complicated and interesting. Maybe people are assuming this will just go into Mexico, but that seems unlikely with the trough coming this weekend. 

 

It doesn't look bad right now, but it (1) is about to spend 24+ h over land, (2) is moving into some drier air, and (3) will feel the effects of stronger NWerly shear if it gains much more latitude.  If 95L can emerge into the BoC / southern GOM looking healthy, then I assure you the discussion will begin to intensify.  For the moment, people are still recovering from the roller coaster ride known as Ingrid. 

[Cheeznado]

12Z GFDL:

 

[wxmx]

12z Euro is a near landfall in TAM of what it looks like a strong TS or weak cane...before it get's caught in weak steering currents meandering east towards the central Gulf

[wxsmwhrms]

Looks to me like the EC moves a relatively weak system WNW from its current position to somewhere just east of the Mexico coast, then stalls it out and has it get sheared as it moves NE.  With the EC solution that would probably be reasonable as it doesn't look quite deep enough with the trough to fully pick it up/baroclinically enhance the system in contrast to the more robust UK/GGEM solutions.  I do note, though, that the EC trended a bit deeper and more elongated to the SW with the trough in contrast to the 00Z run.

 

If nothing else, these HWRF and GFDL solutions will get people along the Gulf Coast talking...

 

Edit:  As far as the EC, I only am looking at low res data, so I am sure Jorge is right as far as the intensity of the system as it moves toward MX.  But after it stalls would probably do generally what I describe based on the angle the upper trough is coming in at. 

[wxmx]

Looks to me like the EC moves a relatively weak system WNW from its current position to somewhere just east of the Mexico coast, then stalls it out and has it get sheared as it moves NE.  With the EC solution that would probably be reasonable as it doesn't look quite deep enough with the trough to fully pick it up/baroclinically enhance the system in contrast to the more robust UK/GGEM solutions.  I do note, though, that the EC trended a bit deeper and more elongated to the SW with the trough in contrast to the 00Z run.

 

If nothing else, these HWRF and GFDL solutions will get people along the Gulf Coast talking...

 

Edit:  As far as the EC, I only am looking at low res data, so I am sure Jorge is right as far as the intensity of the system as it moves toward MX.  But after it stalls would probably do generally what I describe based on the angle the upper trough is coming in at. 

I agree...looking at the vorticity maps, it looks very well organized and tight, with strong vorticity, at least strong enough to support a strong TS

[wxsmwhrms]

12Z GFDL:

 

slp21.png

Isn't that the HWRF?

[wxmx]

As wxsmwhrms said, shear associated with the trough weakens the system...but it's left behind, and strongish ridging builds in TX toward the Gulf states (day 7), and appears to be reorganizing. Wouldn't be surprised that it ends moving back west in this run

[wxmx]

About the GFS/HWRF ... These models focus in the energy on the northern part of the wave...getting in the Gulf NW of the Yucatan peninsula, very similar to what the GFS showed with Ingrid at some point. Not saying it won't happen, just what strikes me as a strong difference with the Euro in the short term.

[wxmx]

Ridging is temporal...headed for the N Gulf at the end of the run.

[Ian]

i'm in

 

[Ed Lizard]

Ridging is temporal...headed for the N Gulf at the end of the run.

Plausible forecast, post December 2009 Winter miracle, a tropical storm with Texas on the dry and breezy side, ala TS Lee 2011 and the Bastrop fires, just because it would be bad for SETX.

 

NavGEM would be great except 1) NavGEM hasn't been better than any model since implementation and 2) a 996 to 1000 mb system, as broad as the NavGem depicts it, would not be a hurricane.

 

NavGEM is due, even the Astros win almost a third of their games.

 

Shorter term, well defined low level vorticity and less than 10 knots shear, with 2.5 inch GFS forecast PW with it, it probably maintains very well crossing the Yucatan.  Mentioned above, I think Fernand looked better leaving the Yucatan than when it arrived.

 

[thewxmann]

NavGEM is due, even the Astros win almost a third of their games.

 

Not true. Models are bad because of bad physics and/or bad math. If your computations are systematically wrong, you're not "due" to be right, ever. Wrong physics and wrong math is wrong 100% of the time.

 

(Sorry, don't mean to diss you or anything; just wanted to get that point across.)

[phil882]

Lol the GFDL and HWRF solutions are unless again due to their unrealistic initial conditions. They are nice eye candy, but just like how poorly they preformed with Gabrielle, they won't handle the evolution of 95L correctly until the system is a robust TC. 

 

With that said, its clear the trend in the modeling EC and GFS is for a stronger initial TC in the BOC. SSTs are reduced from Ingrid, but not substantially so (SSTs are still in the 27-28C range even in the upwelled region). I also think the global models are a little slow to the punch again with BOC genesis (if you remember it took them a few days before they latched on to the Ingrid solution vs. the inland weak low pressure solution). 95L has also been moving slower than the model guidance has suggested, to the point that the incipient disturbance doesn't quite go inland on the 12z ECMWF and ejects back out eastward into the GOM. I think that's looking far more likely given how quickly the mid-level ridge should be weakening in the 48-72 hour period.

 

95L won't have the problem of competing upper-level influences either, which is a positive for its future development. If 95L can become a strong TS or HU before 72 hours, the next 3-5 day forecast gets very interesting. Keep in mind Sandy was forecast by the EC to be a very broad gyre like disturbance in this time range before its genesis. I took think the EC and GFS are underselling the potential here with 95L. 

[wxmx]

Even though cloud tops are warming, it's clear that 95L has a vigorous LLC, which is just inland very near the MX/BZ border. This is suggested by vis imagery and ground observations.

[wxsmwhrms]

Even though cloud tops are warming, it's clear that 95L has a vigorous LLC, which is just inland very near the MX/BZ border. This is suggested by vis imagery and ground observations.

 

Jorge, finally saw the high res EC and what you were saying about the tight vorticity max.  Also noting what Phil says about the slower solution, and one would think the slower/farther east the system ends up the more likely it is to interact with the trough - versus getting left behind as the current EC shows.

[GaWx]

 It isn't saying much due to the extreme pussycatness of the season to date for the CONUS, but 95-L appears to be at least as much CONUS threat as any system to date though it could easily amount to nothing. Looking back, Andrea never threatened to be anything much more than a pussycat. Chantal and Dorian were never more than modest 5 day+ east coast threats, they generally weren't forecasted to get all that strong, and they never had a chance to hit due to dissipation pretty far from the lower 48. Interestingly, the biggest CONUS threat prior to 95-L may actually have been an earlier invest 92-L. On 8/14, when it was in the NW Caribbean, two GFS runs had it hit E LA as a TS. After that, the runs had no more than a strung out mess in the NE GOM. This 92-L never even became a TD and pretty much dissipated.

 

 So, for the CONUS, will 95-L just be another 92-L and do nothing? Does anyone recall the setup for that August 92-L? If so, what 's different about 95-L other than it being later in the year?

 

Edit: Back when Ingrid was just 93-L, a couple of runs on/around 9/10 did get it to the TX/MX border. So, that arguably could also have been the biggest CONUS threat to date though it was very shortlived and never came that close to verifying.

 

 Based on my memory (and notes), I can recall only one solid GFS modeled hurricane hit this season to date: a south FL hit from an entity that was either in the far eastern Atlantic or still in Africa. For that same system one later GFS run barely hit E ME as a TS. So, kudos to the GFS to mainly reflecting reality in this way.

[GaWx]

Wow, fwiw the 18Z gfs bombards much of the southern halves of MS/AL/GA and E SC with very heavy rain and a flooding threat for some 9/21-23 due to Invest 95. It gives part of SC AL 8-10" within 24 hours! The lowest SLP is 999 mb.

[Amped]

Euro develops some sort of Subtropical mess north of Bermuda at 144hrs. It becomes extratropical and very intense before hitting Newfoundland at 192.