Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[hurricaneman]

I think Gabrielle in 2001 but could be completely wrong

[Amped]

The dreaded 1 hurricane season has been averted, but it still sucks.

[phil882]

LOL, yeah I thought the same thing.  I am guessing it won't happen exactly like that.  :-)

 

 

I think Gabrielle in 2001 but could be completely wrong

 

Josephine (1996) is a close analog, which was a hybrid TC that was becoming extratropical as it made landfall in FL. This might be a similar event.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Using the overall circulation signal off the MJO concepts a lull in the activity over the next week is favored.  Perhaps we are seeing some of that take form now, in that some of the immediate starts and frets of activity seems to have gotten red-headed-step-child.  

 

Still, there are local spatial-scaled regions that could pop up as interesting during that time, where smaller than hemispheric influences parlay into smaller favorable regions within the overall regime. One such region may be near the Bahamas.  I have noticed that every global-based operational model type there is have dents and/or weakly closed circulation centers amid a localized conducive layout from Florida throughout the Puerto Rico archipelago.  What happens there by D4 or 5 is that the heights tend to rise in a band along 35-ish north, albeit narrowly..  But in the hours/days leading, there is a tendency for frontalysis waves to end up there, and fester.  It's a recipe for a book-ender.  I think Bob was a book-end spin up (but don't quote me).  So if we have some on-going convection dappled about that area, and then rather abruptly insert an anticyclonic tendency over top (lowering shear), then typical CMC bias may not be so biased.   

 

If the modeling and obs et al are majority correct through D10, that's about all there is to look for from where I am sitting.   time will tell. 

[bluewave]

The dreaded 1 hurricane season has been averted, but it still sucks.

 

At least we were able to bump the ACE above 20 the last day or so. But we joined the no majors by September 15th club

without either a developing El Nino and or -AMO like the other years since 1960.

 

Hurricane season ACE with no majors by 9-15:

 

2013....21 so far

2002....67................El Nino.....

1994....32................El Nino....-AMO

1987....34................El Nino....

1986....36................El Nino....-AMO

1982....32................El Nino...-AMO

1973....48..............................-AMO

1972....36................El Nino...-AMO

1968....45........weak El Nino ..-AMO

1962....36..............................-AMO

[thewxmann]

At least we were able to bump the ACE above 20 the last day or so. But we joined the no majors by September 15th club

without either a developing El Nino and or -AMO like the other years since 1960.

 

Hurricane season ACE with no majors by 9-15:

 

2013....21 so far

2002....67................El Nino.....

1994....32................El Nino....-AMO

1987....34................El Nino....

1986....36................El Nino....-AMO

1982....32................El Nino...-AMO

1973....48..............................-AMO

1972....36................El Nino...-AMO

1968....45........weak El Nino ..-AMO

1962....36..............................-AMO

 

Pathetic. 

[Ed Lizard]

Maybe the model suggested BoC slop action that could develop post Ingrid and possibly interact with a front won't be as pathetic as modeling currently suggests.

[bluewave]

Pathetic. 

 

 9-21-02 is the record for latest first major since the recent +AMO era began in 1995. 

[jconsor]

One funny thing about the no major before sep 15 list is that 2012 almost joined that list. The only major before sep 15, michael, only barely made it to major status- it was only at its peak intensity of 100 kt for 6 hours.

[billgwx]

Maybe the model suggested BoC slop action that could develop post Ingrid and possibly interact with a front won't be as pathetic as modeling currently suggests.

 

Digging negatively tilted Great Lakes/Ohio Valley trough, blocking New England/Canadian Maritimes high at T+240hr...when have we seen something like *that* before?

[Amped]

 

Something to watch definitely.  Even a 980mb storm would produce powerful winds in that setup.

[wxtrackercody]

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[wxtrackercody]

Waiting for a long-lived, nice-looking hurricane. 

 

Can the fact that we've been without an El Niño be contributing to all these crap storms lately? 

[Derecho!]

Waiting for a long-lived, nice-looking hurricane. 

 

Can the fact that we've been without an El Niño be contributing to all these crap storms lately? 

 

No.  There's "crap" storms and then there's CRAP El Nino non-storms.

[Srain]

The operational and ensemble guidance suggests the monsoonal gyre will not relax over the NW Caribbean and Western Gulf during the next 5-7 days. There are indications that yet another broad area of low pressure will develop in the Bay of Campeche later this week and a frontal boundary will slide S and stall near or just N of the NW and Central Gulf Coast.

 

[tmagan]

Has there ever been a year without a Category 2 hurricane?

[bluewave]

Has there ever been a year without a Category 2 hurricane?

 

It looks like the only year without one since the satellite era began was 1968. The most recent

year with the latest first Cat 2 was 11-7-94.

[Ed Lizard]

Still Euro suggestion of a sub-tropical slop storm maybe menacing the Northeast.  Which, even if it is a 50 knot STS, will cause immense wailing of teeth.

 

Looks at least somewhat frontal in nature, even when it forms near Florida it looks less than purely tropical, may have trouble escaping.  Euro verbatim does have 40 knot plus 850 mb winds with tight gradient between high over New England and low.  New NHC rules, I assume official NHC watches would be possible even for a low that is obviously becoming post-tropical, if Euro verifies.

 

Not completely w/o GEFS support, and it won't be popular in main forum because of likely hybrid nature.  Euro is trying to develop a post Ingrid BoC cyclone, and hard to tell from free Euro 'seed' of Euro East Coast hybrid, but that could be a third TC/sub-TC in the Atlantic related to the Central American slop gyre.  Hope I'm using that term correctly.  Hoping NWS NFL met lets me know if I'm using it right.

 

[Guest Imperator]

I dont see the logic in creating a forecast from any model in the D10 range, especially with drastic run to run changes. That being said, the pattern the Euro is showing is quite different D10 than yesterday's 12Z, where people were hyping a Sandy-esque pattern. Your slop storm is seemingly headed NE away from the East Coast, beyond that maybe a real met can chime in.

Still Euro suggestion of a sub-tropical slop storm maybe menacing the Northeast.  Which, even if it is a 50 knot STS, will cause immense wailing of teeth.

 

Looks at least somewhat frontal in nature, even when it forms near Florida it looks less than purely tropical, may have trouble escaping.  Euro verbatim does have 40 knot plus 850 mb winds with tight gradient between high over New England and low.  New NHC rules, I assume official NHC watches would be possible even for a low that is obviously becoming post-tropical, if Euro verifies.

 

Not completely w/o GEFS support, and it won't be popular in main forum because of likely hybrid nature.  Euro is trying to develop a post Ingrid BoC cyclone, and hard to tell from free Euro 'seed' of Euro East Coast hybrid, but that could be a third TC/sub-TC in the Atlantic related to the Central American slop gyre.  Hope I'm using that term correctly.  Hoping NWS NFL met lets me know if I'm using it right.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

I dont see the logic in creating a forecast from any model in the D10 range, especially with drastic run to run changes. That being said, the pattern the Euro is showing is quite different D10 than yesterday's 12Z, where people were hyping a Sandy-esque pattern. Your slop storm is seemingly headed NE away from the East Coast, beyond that maybe a real met can chime in.

 

Details change, trend staying the same, and there is a ridge, surface and mid level, over North of that slop storm, so I'm not sure why you think this run suggests it is scooting out to sea automatically.

 

And you must think I'm a moron if you think I think a Day 10 model run would verify verbatim.  Ok, you think I'm a moron.  Didn't sound like a forecast to me, rather a discussion of the possible.  Mentioning some ensemble support from another model.  And, BTW, the word 'verbatim' is short hand for saying one doesn't really think a 240 hour model forecast will verify 'verbatim'.

 

Edit 'over' because I have to choose my words carefully.

[Srain]

[Ryneone]

The NHC now gives the area of disturbed weather near the Yucatán peninsula a 30% chance of development.

[wxsmwhrms]

The NHC now gives the area of disturbed weather near the Yucatán peninsula a 30% chance of development.

 

I could tell that was a Stewart TWO by the wording, LOL.

 

Sub 1005 mb MSLP in the SW Gulf, above normal PW values, and relatively favorable looking upper level flow pattern - certainly wouldn't be surprising for something to come out of there later this week.

[HurricaneJosh]

Not sure I can go through this* again-- at least not so soon. Healing is a process.

(* "This" = slow-brewing BoC c*cktease.)

[Ed Lizard]

95L should be slow brewing, it is in a bad position relative to the outflow from TD Ingrid, CIMSS analysis suggesting both 20 knots plus of shear without benefit of upper divergence shear sometimes causes.

 

Shear does get much better in 2 days of the BAMM track.  GFS knows it is there initially, weakens it dramatically after a couple of days.  Which is too bad, there could be a brief window 3-4 days where a coherent system could be drawn towards South Texas looking at 500 mb and 700 mb heights.

[Floydbuster]

SHIPS model puts Hurricane Jerry just northeast of where Ingrid was in the Southwest Gulf without any shear in 48-72 hrs.

[Srain]

I could tell that was a Stewart TWO by the wording, LOL. Sub 1005 mb MSLP in the SW Gulf, above normal PW values, and relatively favorable looking upper level flow pattern - certainly wouldn't be surprising for something to come out of there later this week.

Not so sure that shear will abate enough to develop much beyond a broad surface low in the monsoonal gyre, but with the lack of a competing EPAC storm this time and a rather complex upper air pattern of a Plains trough and frontal boundary stalling along or just inland of the NW/Central Gulf Coast may allow a surface feature to fester offshore of Tampico to La Pesca focusing heavy rains once again to Mexico/Coastal Texas/Louisiana and on E into Florida. This looks like a rainer more than anything.

[ineedsnow]

up to 30/50

SHIPS model puts Hurricane Jerry just northeast of where Ingrid was in the Southwest Gulf without any shear in 48-72 hrs.

[Ed Lizard]

SHIPS model puts Hurricane Jerry just northeast of where Ingrid was in the Southwest Gulf without any shear in 48-72 hrs.

 

That is the no land SHIPS.  Decay SHIPS is 10 knots weaker before more land interaction, LGE mod would be a minimal hurricane before more land interaction.

 

Sadly, most guidance is generally Westward, I could see how a coherent system could move NW towards Texas before being deflected East as a front/trough approaches.  A Northeast US type TC throwing moisture at a front IMBY could be a potentially interesting thing.  A less reliable global that does develop 95L moves it Northward in the general direction of Texas before a turn East and landfall near Pensacola in 5 days.

 

GFS and Euro keep pressures kind of low in the BoC, and I see signs in Euro op and GFS ensembles at 240 hours that anything coming out of the BoC (of course, something has to come out of the BoC) could comes as far West as extreme Eastern Texas, well beyond the usual end of Texas TC season.

[Floydbuster]

Any pro-mets want to chime in on why everything in the Atlantic has been so gyre, messy sloppy the last few hurricane seasons? I mean, we keep getting these odd storms. Like Isaac for example....that have Category 2 pressures but barely qualify as hurricanes. Oh they found 965 mb and max flight level winds of 61 kt type bullcrap. Any ideas why so much of that strangeness lately?