Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[NJwinter23]

http://db.hellohelp.net/hurdat_storms/storm_search.php

 

I still need to update last year's cyclones.

 

Thanks! So by picking a set of dates , the storms that show up will have to have formed on those dates, and not just existed on those dates (and formed before you highlighted)

[wxmeddler]

C-130J in route to 93L.

[Ed Lizard]

Super secret NHC track has landfall between 84 and 96 hours, at 84 hours SHIPS is a 62 knot storm on the cusp...

 

 

Edit

 

The 12Z FIM-9 does a small loop, then takes a high end TS just North of Tampico in 3 1/2 days.  The important part, however:

[wxmeddler]

About to go in..

[wxmeddler]

1005.3mb W winds found.. TD upgrade imminent.

[dan88]

Wind shift about 19.75N 92.75W, pressure around 1005MB

194930 2003N 09244W 9874 00155 0055 +218 +218 160023 024 039 015 00
195000 2002N 09244W 9880 00150 0053 +218 +218 154025 025 045 011 00
195030 2001N 09245W 9876 00154 0054 +219 +219 148022 024 047 013 03
195100 1959N 09246W 9879 00152 0053 +226 +222 152022 024 032 012 00
195130 1958N 09246W 9877 00155 0055 +224 +224 153019 023 038 012 00
195200 1957N 09247W 9875 00157 0056 +222 +222 139014 018 048 032 03
195230 1955N 09248W 9880 00153 0057 +225 +225 106012 013 047 031 03
195300 1954N 09248W 9878 00155 0056 +225 +225 093011 014 /// /// 03
195330 1952N 09249W 9880 00150 0053 +227 +227 091016 018 /// /// 03
195400 1951N 09250W 9875 00154 0053 +227 //// 066008 016 /// /// 05
195430 1949N 09250W 9879 00153 0054 +227 //// 305006 009 /// /// 05
195500 1948N 09251W 9877 00152 0051 +231 +228 238009 010 /// /// 05
195530 1947N 09252W 9873 00155 0049 +230 +226 230010 012 /// /// 03
195600 1945N 09252W 9879 00149 0049 +226 //// 237015 016 /// /// 05
195630 1944N 09253W 9876 00148 0048 +226 //// 237014 017 /// /// 09
195700 1943N 09254W 9875 00149 0048 +222 +222 244019 020 /// /// 03
195730 1942N 09254W 9877 00146 0047 +219 //// 246016 019 /// /// 05
195800 1940N 09255W 9882 00143 0047 +223 //// 243015 017 /// /// 05
195830 1939N 09256W 9881 00144 0048 +217 //// 238015 016 /// /// 05
195900 1938N 09256W 9880 00145 0047 +224 +221 236016 017 023 011 00

[Superstorm93]

Recon finding lower pressures to the west of the first "fix" 

 

Center appears to be ill-defined 

[dan88]

Recon has gone through a few wind shifts now, this looks closest to a true center they have found, SW of the first one they found and a lower pressure.

203800 1941N 09336W 9629 00361 0033 +232 +219 063007 008 007 007 00
203830 1940N 09338W 9627 00364 0034 +228 //// 076003 009 017 012 01
203900 1939N 09339W 9624 00363 0031 +233 +231 290002 003 011 008 00

[wxmx]

Thanks! So by picking a set of dates , the storms that show up will have to have formed on those dates, and not just existed on those dates (and formed before you highlighted)

Yes, the date is for cyclogenesis date...well, at least the first known coordinate.

[NJwinter23]

Yes, the date is for cyclogenesis date...well, at least the first known coordinate.

 

Very nice database, appreciate you sharing. 

[phil882]

The circulation of TD10 is still pretty broad and elongated looking at the recon obs... this will take some time to get consolidated, so time over water will be a necessity. 

[Ed Lizard]

000
WTNT25 KNHC 122059
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  93.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  93.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  93.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.7N  94.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.5N  95.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.3N  95.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.3N  95.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.7N  95.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.0N  97.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N  93.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




 

Checked TCWEB site 5 minutes ago...

 

Updated

 

AL, 10, 2013091218,   , BEST,   0, 197N,  937W,  30, 1005, LO,

[Superstorm93]

The circulation of 93L is still pretty broad looking at the recon obs... this will take some time to get consolidated, so time over water will be a necessity. 

 

AL, 10, 2013091218, , BEST, 0, 197N, 937W, 30, 1005, TD

 

[GaWx]

There were more very interesting runs today for late month, including the 18z GFS, which has a very slow moving (due to being trapped by a high to the north) significant cyclone just offshore the SE 9/24-28

[WxFreak11]

There were more very interesting runs today for late month, including the 18z GFS, which has a very slow moving (due to being trapped by a high to the north) significant cyclone just offshore the SE 9/24-28

Do you have a link?

[GaWx]

Do you have a link?

Sorry, I don't as I'm on my Iphone and it is hard to link it. But, suffice it to say, it would quite interesting to most Charlestonians

[metalicwx366]

Do you have a link?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl.html

[WxFreak11]

Sorry, I don't as I'm on my Iphone and it is hard to link it. But, suffice it to say, it would quite interesting to most Charlestonians

[WxFreak11]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl.html

Thanks for the link!

[uncle W]

We are on track for only the 10th year since 1960 without a major hurricane in the Atlantic Basin

by 9-15. ACE is currently at 16.7 in the Atlantic. 

 

Hurricane season ACE with no majors by 9-15:

 

2013...16.7 so far

2002....67

1994....32

1987....34

1986....36

1982....32

1973....48

1972....36

1968....45

1962....36

only 1962 and 1973 had negative enso...the others were on their way to el nino's...

[GaWx]

There were more very interesting runs today for late month, including the 18z GFS, which has a very slow moving (due to being trapped by a high to the north) significant cyclone just offshore the SE 9/24-28

 

 Early month GFS runs were suggesting NE US ridging locking in and dominating 9/15-22. Since then, there has been plenty of delay and now they're hedging on NE ridging taking over even during late month. As a result, the 0z-12Z GFS runs of today dropped the late Sep. SE US cyclone threat. Let's see if the modeled threat returns.

[Ed Lizard]

Ingrid looks like fail on the Euro, but the BoC looks to stay unsettled based on free Penn State E-Wall SLP/850 mb vorticity product.

[Ed Lizard]

Euro still keeps BoC unsettled after Ingrid landfalls, and while it is a weak system, and perhaps proximity to the rather deep trough (which I assume extends to the upper levels) could be shearing it, it has a low moving East across the Gulf days 8 through 10, maybe heading for Gulf Coast Florida.  Complicated, a decent front is into the SE USA then per Euro.

 

But it has potential.  And yeah, I'm a bit US-centric, a couple of chasers in Mexico Monday will produce awesome video, but imagine all the video, and television news footage, that would come from Florida.

[phil882]

Euro still keeps BoC unsettled after Ingrid landfalls, and while it is a weak system, and perhaps proximity to the rather deep trough (which I assume extends to the upper levels) could be shearing it, it has a low moving East across the Gulf days 8 through 10, maybe heading for Gulf Coast Florida.  Complicated, a decent front is into the SE USA then per Euro.

 

But it has potential.  And yeah, I'm a bit US-centric, a couple of chasers in Mexico Monday will produce awesome video, but imagine all the video, and television news footage, that would come from Florida.

 

Here is the crazy thing... the same gyre that is producing Manual and Ingrid right now is actually forecast to continue to persist, and thats the feature you are witnessing that will interact with the mid-latitudes in the long range. Its also the same feature that the GFS has been hinting off and on for the last few model cycles. Its a very complicated setup, but one that suggests we may not be done with tropical action in the BOC after Ingrid moves inland.  

[wxsmwhrms]

Here is the crazy thing... the same gyre that is producing Manual and Ingrid right now is actually forecast to continue to persist, and thats the feature you are witnessing that will interact with the mid-latitudes in the long range. Its also the same feature that the GFS has been hinting off and on for the last few model cycles. Its a very complicated setup, but one that suggests we may not be done with tropical action in the BOC after Ingrid moves inland.  

Yeah, have noted the models have been showing persistent below normal pressures and above normal PWs in the southern Gulf and western Caribbean after Ingrid departs.  Seems like another system would be likely to come out of that as ops and ensemble runs are often suggesting, but obviously the details of where and if it's something really significant still up in the air.

[wxsmwhrms]

12Z Euro has gotten more bullish on taking a deepening system east-northeast from the BOC across the Gulf into FL days 6-10.

[DopplerWx]

12Z Euro has gotten more bullish on taking a deepening system east-northeast from the BOC across the Gulf into FL days 6-10.

is that what it is showing off the east coast of fl at day 10 or is that a different system?

[Snow_Miser]

is that what it is showing off the east coast of fl at day 10 or is that a different system?

 

It's the same system.

[tmagan]

12Z Euro has gotten more bullish on taking a deepening system east-northeast from the BOC across the Gulf into FL days 6-10.

I'm trying to remember the last September BOC system that moved ENE across the entire Gulf.

[wxsmwhrms]

I'm trying to remember the last September BOC system that moved ENE across the entire Gulf.

 

LOL, yeah I thought the same thing.  I am guessing it won't happen exactly like that.  :-)