Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[Amped]

Some models want to finally develop 98l around 240hrs south of Bermuda. 12z Euro has a 1012 MB low, 18z gfs is sub 1004mb.

[HurricaneJosh]

Well from a forecasting perspective these are the interesting ones because there is so little margin for error. Storms like Dean and Felix are very rare and the mid-2000s had an abnormal stretch of these types of systems. 

 

2001 Iris

2004 Ivan

2005 Dennis, Emily

2007 Dean, Felix

2008 Gustav

 

prior to this period there was no Caribbean cruser (defined as a Major Hurricane that undergoes genesis in the Eastern Caribbean or MDR then moves into the Caribbean) since 1988, so you can go a decade or more without seeing one of these particular types of storms.

 

In all seriousness (I was joking before when I told you to be quiet )... I'm not just talking about Caribbean Cruisers-- that genre of system is just one example.  It could be long-tracking Cape Verdes like Andrew and Hugo, it could be cyclones that traverse the Gulf... I just mean we haven't had a powerful cyclone with room to grow in a very long time.  Everything is crap that spins up right near the shore-- if that.  The marketing slogan for the post-2008 era should be "If it had six more hours, it woulda been hawt."

[Ed Lizard]

Doesn't help my lawn any.  Tree specialist was just here, says my water oak will probably die.  I probably should have looked up what kind of tree it was on the internet.  5 year long droughts suck.  18Z GFS total precip just over an inch in 16 days.  I watered enough to keep the grass green.

 

 

But while I preferred yesterday's 18Z GFS to todays, I'm not so selfish I want to deny people a genuine red meat hurricane.  The dry period really began in 2005, Rita had enough wind to knock over a few trees, even kill power, dropped only an inch at the airport.  8 years of dryness with one good year sandwiched in.  2008 was the happy year with Dolly and Edouard.  And a December snow miracle.

 

 

Anyway, ignoring the differences in rain for my yard, I'd like to see if 0Z GFS goes back to last night's 0Z GFS of a more Southerly system.  3 runs in a row seems a trend, and if is the 18Z showing one thing and the others showing something else, multiple runs, I'll trust the other runs.  One other thing, what is 'normalized standard deviation' as shown on free Euro ensembles.  Does it indicate spread, or difference in pressure/heights/temp from the seasonal mean.  And has anyone seen individual Euro ensemble members?

 

Thanks.

[GaWx]

The 18Z GFS is still another run suggesting mischief off of the SE US coast after 9/20. The exact solution isn't important, of course. However, seeing this general kind of thing on still another run with the similar western Atlantic/NE US ridging once again just tells that this kind of thing actually verifying wouldn't at all be surprising.

[thewxmann]

In all seriousness (I was joking before when I told you to be quiet )... I'm not just talking about Caribbean Cruisers-- that genre of system is just one example.  It could be long-tracking Cape Verdes like Andrew and Hugo, it could be cyclones that traverse the Gulf... I just mean we haven't had a powerful cyclone with room to grow in a very long time.  Everything is crap that spins up right near the shore-- if that.  The marketing slogan for the post-2008 era should be "If it had six more hours, it woulda been hawt."

 

Yeah, I was thinking of the same response. Even ignoring the Caribbean Cruisers the temporalspatial windows for sustaining high intensities have been limited to nonexistent since 2010. And in the western half of the basin, arguably since 2008. There's always something -- dry air intrusion, TUTTs, land... gone are the legitimate, steady Cat 3+ systems of yesteryear.

[wxsmwhrms]

One thing I recall is the lack of northward motion in this area since around 2005. Think of all the BOC straight into Mexico storms we've had since then.

 

Bret '05

Gert '05

Jose '05

Lorenzo '07

Marco '08

Hermine '10

Karl '10

Arlene '11

Nate '11

Helene '12

 

With the exceptions of Lorenzo, Karl and Nate none of them became hurricanes and only Hermine had a northwest component to it's track.

 

I do recall back as a kid in the 1990s many more fronts and thunderstorms which would equate to much more back and forth movement of the high pressure domes that protected the Gulf Coast. You had more Opal and Bret situations rather than what we've seen the last few years.

 

Yes, it's interesting if you look at CLIPER for these sorts of systems it shows it coming north out of the BOC.  When's the last time you actually saw that happen?

[thewxmann]

Yes, it's interesting if you look at CLIPER for these sorts of systems it shows it coming north out of the BOC.  When's the last time you actually saw that happen?

 

I actually don't understand that. I always thought it was climatologically more likely a storm near the Yucatan stays down in Mexico territory. From what I've observed it takes a pretty persistent and notable weakness to lift a storm outta there. 

[Derecho!]

Discuss.....

 

 

[wxmeddler]

Yeah, the GFS has hinted at this for at least the two days.

[wxmx]

Actually, hits in the BoC area of the Gulf are rare...or at least they were. From the period between 1956 and 2004 only 2 minimal TS hit below 20.5N...and they were moving SW.

 

[wxmx]

Compare with period from 2005-2011

[wxsmwhrms]

I actually don't understand that. I always thought it was climatologically more likely a storm near the Yucatan stays down in Mexico territory. From what I've observed it takes a pretty persistent and notable weakness to lift a storm outta there. 

 

I would tend to agree with you based on my experience as well, especially in the Aug/Sep timeframe .  Maybe the CLP model on the graphics (at least the ones I saw the last couple of days) were messed up.

[hurricaneman]

The 18Z GFS is still another run suggesting mischief off of the SE US coast after 9/20. The exact solution isn't important, of course. However, seeing this general kind of thing on still another run with the similar western Atlantic/NE US ridging once again just tells that this kind of thing actually verifying wouldn't at all be surprising.

Thats ex98L and it has a lot of convection with it but has a lot of shear which if this finds a favorable environment it could intensify and an example of this type of thing was Andrew in 1992 but am not expecting anything close to that but wouldn't be surprised if this became a tropical storm in the long run

[GaWx]

Thats ex98L and it has a lot of convection with it but has a lot of shear which if this finds a favorable environment it could intensify and an example of this type of thing was Andrew in 1992 but am not expecting anything close to that but wouldn't be surprised if this became a tropical storm in the long run

 

 The 0Z GFS is still another run with a mess near the SE US as of 9/23-7 (low gets down to 988 mb) after developing 9/21. The last two Euros have also developed a surface low off the SE coast ~9/20-21 (with at least some tropical component). Strong NW North American upper troughing inducing persistent far E US and far W Atlantic ridging would make for an interesting blocking pattern that would also be conducive for low level convergence underneath which could easily spawn a surface low.

 

 As these runs keep hinting at this, the odds are slowly increasing that there will actually be something slow moving and interesting to follow near the SE US through a good portion of the 9/20-28 timeframe.

[thewxmann]

 The 0Z GFS is still another run with a mess near the SE US as of 9/23-7 (low gets down to 988 mb) after developing 9/21. The last two Euros have also developed a surface low off the SE coast ~9/20-21 (with at least some tropical component). Strong NW North American upper troughing inducing persistent far E US and far W Atlantic ridging would make for an interesting blocking pattern that would also be conducive for low level convergence underneath which could easily spawn a surface low.

 

 As these runs keep hinting at this, the odds are slowly increasing that there will actually be something slow moving and interesting to follow near the SE US through a good portion of the 9/20-28 timeframe.

 

Not necessarily. There's a lot of shear being shown on the models... maybe something hybrid?

[wxtrackercody]

Buoy 42055 in the west-central Gulf of Mexico reported a minimum barometric pressure of 1008 millibars just about an hour ago. This buoy was roughly 292 nautical miles northwest of the 6z best track position, and 93L hasn't moved appreciably. Recon is scheduled to investigate this afternoon, I want to see just how close this is.

[Ed Lizard]

Euro text rain the next week not all that impressive here.  6Z GFS predicted rain, not so bad.

 

Verbatim, AccuWx PPV Euro sustained 10 meter winds 55-60 knots at landfall.

 

 

Speaking of AccuWeather, sort of, someone is bullish...

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 37m

Ingrid to be getting into southern gulf. Maybe cat 2 or 3 when hits Mexico Mon near or north of Tampico.

 

[NJwinter23]

Actually, hits in the BoC area of the Gulf are rare...or at least they were. From the period between 1956 and 2004 only 2 minimal TS hit below 20.5N...and they were moving SW.

 

MX_GOM_1956-2004.gif

 

Hey what site did you create these on? Looks fun

[wxmx]

Hey what site did you create these on? Looks fun

http://db.hellohelp.net/hurdat_storms/storm_search.php

 

I still need to update last year's cyclones.

[wxmx]

It's becoming clear that 93L will interact with the disturbance in the EPAC and then make a cyclonic loop in the very deep BoC before heading WNW to NW. Why it has to be so complicated?

[wxmx]

12z GFS back to too much interaction with land and EPAC disturbance...weaker and probably a bit south than 06z

[wxmeddler]

The EPAC system does a little fujiwhara around the BOC system and thus stretches out the energy/vorticity allowing it time to move inland without consolidating.

[Superstorm93]

If 93L can complete it's cyclonic loop in the southern BOC with enough distance from land, it could wind of becoming quite strong given the extremely moist atmosphere, light to moderate wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures. 

 

The system already appears to be organizing rather quickly according to visible satellite, with low level banding starting to take shape. Recon should be interesting later today. 

 

[wxsmwhrms]

Looking at surface obs and satellite, sure seems to me like we're going to have a tropical cyclone in the BOC sooner rather than later. 12Z UK takes a TC slowly WNW and then NW across Gulf to a landfall near Tampico late Saturday.

[wxmx]

Looking at surface obs and satellite, sure seems to me like we're going to have a tropical cyclone in the BOC sooner rather than later. 12Z UK takes a TC slowly WNW and then NW across Gulf to a landfall near Tampico late Saturday.

Yep, I agree about it becoming more organized in the low levels...observations show west winds in several locations, like Coatzacoalcos...S winds in Campeche, and NW winds in Veracruz...plus vis sat imagery shows what it looks like low level turning already. Also, the retrograding upper trough to it's NW is extending it's distance, allowing shear to lessen.

 

A more dominant/stronger low will be less affected by the EPAC disturbance...hence it would tend to dig less to the SW.

[wxmeddler]

The deeper (ie. stronger) 93L can get, the less influence the EPAC system will have on it. If it can get strong enough the EPAC system will merge into it without much stretching of the vorticity.

[Superstorm93]

I highly doubt 93L makes landfall as early as Saturday unless it gets too involved with the EPAC system to its south. FWIW, the consensus doesn't have this approaching landfall north of Tampico until 12z Monday. While it doesn't look like it will stick around that long, I could see a late Sunday landfall possible if a decently organized system can take shape. 

 

[klw]

Bit of a noobie question here, are there more upper level lows/ TUTTs roaming around this year? (or am I just looking a WV images more often)

[wxmx]

Recon is in the air.

 

Also, there's a closed low in there, albeit a weak one at that

 

[Superstorm93]

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DOES NOT FORM TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

 

I wouldn't call this too weak...