Jonger Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 We are going to miss the record by 12 hours I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 We are going to miss the record by 12 hours I fear. Not looking like this it won't: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 Not looking like this it won't: Yeah, I agree it looks kinda crappy. I know the NHC says it's strengthening, but it really doesn't look that hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Dry air to the north ftw... we might make it after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 Dry air to the north ftw... we might make it after all. I just noticed that, too. It's like a stay of execution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I just noticed that, too. It's like a stay of execution. NHC will make you sweat all Autumn... NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center As a number of folks know, we are approaching a record for the latest formation of the season's first hurricane, at least in the satellite era. Since 1967, the latest formation of the season's first hurricane was 8 am ET September 11th (Gustav in 2002). As it happens, Humberto is approaching hurricane strength with 8 am on the 11th also just around the corner (to mix a space-time metaphor). So this might be a good time to remind folks that NHC always conducts a post-storm analysis of each tropical cyclone. We usually adjust the final positions and intensities a little bit in this analysis, and sometimes we make substantial adjustments, based on information that we might not have had in real time.The point being that regardless of when Humberto might become a hurricane in our advisories, the final final call on whether or not we actually set a record will not be determined until the post-storm analysis is complete, several weeks or perhaps even a couple months from now. Like · · Share · 531814 · about an hour ago · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 NHC will make you sweat all Autumn... Betta hush up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It's still too close to call on Humberto, all nighter anyone? I think I'll just sleep through the most exciting part of 2013 hurricane season. Edit: on a side note 18z GFS is interesting in the gulf. Makes 2 storms out of the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Convection has weakened in association with Humberto but the structure has done nothing but become better defined this afternoon. Ragged eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 Convection has weakened in association with Humberto but the structure has done nothing but become better defined this afternoon. Ragged eye. A completely exposed center can also have beautiful definition and an "eye". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 A completely exposed center can also have beautiful definition and an "eye". Luckily that's not the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 93L is better organized this afternoon. CIMSS site shows that low and mid level vorticity are better aligned and shear has dropped to about 10kt. Sat imagery shows nice mid level turning, but there are no indications that we have a closed low yet at the surface. 18z GFS is a hit right in the MX/TX border. It's stronger and slower than some previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 Luckily that's not the case here. Weakening convection is not going to help it reach 65 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 93L is better organized this afternoon. CIMSS site shows that low and mid level vorticity are better aligned and shear has dropped to about 10kt. Sat imagery shows nice mid level turning, but there are no indications that we have a closed low yet at the surface. 18z GFS is a hit right in the MX/TX border. It's stronger and slower than some previous runs. Si. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Crawls along the coast from Tampico to Corpus Christi:While your at it, break out the ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Good opportunity for a red-meat cyclone; almost enough to compensate for a late start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Convection has weakened in association with Humberto but the structure has done nothing but become better defined this afternoon. Ragged eye. Subjective topic but, to me, ragged implies an eye that has cleared out for the most part (i.e. >50C temp delta between eyewall and eye) but the ring of convection is not well-defined and circular. In other words, ragged describes the shape of the convective ring (eyewall), imo. In this satellite image above, I wouldn't call this ragged, the eye is circular, it just hasn't cleared out. The temp delta is ~ 20C. Anyway, technicalities are not important, latest satellite image says eye feature is improving (i.e. temp delta increasing). Cloud tops outside of eye are still warming for now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Yea thats not an eye: dry air has completely gutted the inner core today. You see the outer bands to the north are starting to re-fire and we should see a resurgence of convection during the diurnal maximum. However, the outer core convection firing first will almost certainly broaden the wind field, which should make it more difficult for the storm to intensify rapidly... moderate cat 1 max looks reasonable at this point as the NHC suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 93L has the potential to be a large wet cyclone once it makes the trek across the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Subjective topic but, to me, ragged implies an eye that has cleared out for the most part (i.e. >50C temp delta between eyewall and eye) but the ring of convection is not well-defined and circular. In other words, ragged describes the shape of the convective ring (eyewall), imo. In this satellite image above, I wouldn't call this ragged, the eye is circular, it just hasn't cleared out. The temp delta is ~ 20C. Anyway, technicalities are not important, latest satellite image says eye feature is improving (i.e. temp delta increasing). Cloud tops outside of eye are still warming for now though. The majority of TS's really don't have "eyes", better term is centers of circulation. And if a TS has an "eye" it generally is tilted, contaminated or "ragged". Also, a ring of convection that contains AT LEAST some towers that are as cool as areas just away from the COC, would certainly be a prerequisite for possible eye classification. I do agree, however that such a determination is quite subjective at the thresholds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Author Share Posted September 11, 2013 Humberto didn't make it to hurricane intensity today-- so even if 2013 doesn't technically beat 2002, we're going to have two years in which the first 'cane formed on 11 Sep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 When you get into full chase be careful and dont get drowndedead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 isn't the record (in the satellite era) for lowest canes in a season 2? we may challenge it if humberto never makes it to cane status and the boc gyre stays weak. hoping for a good late sept and oct though. just give me one major in the carribean and i'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Author Share Posted September 11, 2013 isn't the record (in the satellite era) for lowest canes in a season 2? we may challenge it if humberto never makes it to cane status and the boc gyre stays weak. hoping for a good late sept and oct though. just give me one major in the carribean and i'll be happy. Off the top of my head, I think the record is two-- which happened in 1982. That was the year I started tracking hurricanes lolz. I don't think we're going to break that record. While I'm not exactly brimming over with optimism, I expect the second half of the season to be closer to climo-- maybe with a whopper or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Author Share Posted September 11, 2013 When you get into full chase be careful and dont get drowndedead! I'm pretty good about taking precautions to avoid that. But thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Well, the 0z GFS seems to catch on to 93L's improved structure today. It doesn't show a broad low in the Gulf and instead keeps a consolidated area of vorticity that rapidly develops in a favorable environment. The result? 983mb hurricane in 102 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Author Share Posted September 11, 2013 Well, the 0z GFS seems to catch on to 93L's improved structure today. It doesn't show a broad low in the Gulf and instead keeps a consolidated area of vorticity that rapidly develops in a favorable environment. The result? 983mb hurricane in 102 hours. Yummyz!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Humberto didn't make it to hurricane intensity today-- so even if 2013 doesn't technically beat 2002, we're going to have two years in which the first 'cane formed on 11 Sep. Well Technically The 2002 Summer solstice was June 21st at 9:24am est and the 2013 Summer solstice was June 21st at 1:04 am. That means the record occurred 25 minutes ago! Time to start celebrating the lameness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The majority of TS's really don't have "eyes", better term is centers of circulation. And if a TS has an "eye" it generally is tilted, contaminated or "ragged". Also, a ring of convection that contains AT LEAST some towers that are as cool as areas just away from the COC, would certainly be a prerequisite for possible eye classification. I do agree, however that such a determination is quite subjective at the thresholds... I know what you mean but it is a circular region of warmer cloud tops, directly centered over the COC, and surrounded by a ring of cold convection...that is the definition of an eye. It was weak and definitely not cleared out, but it is technically an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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