Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[HurricaneJosh]

Humberto did not become a hurricane by 12Z today, so 2013 beats out 1984 as the season with the second-latest formation of the first 'cane. 2013 probably won't quite make it to first place-- unless the shear can keep Humberto down today.

Humberto would have to make it to 8 am EDT tomorrow without being upgraded in order to put 2013 in first place.  (Gustav 2002 became a hurricane "just before 12Z" on 11 Sep.)
 
1 – 11 Sep (GUSTAV 2002)
****2013 is here so far.*****
2 – 10 Sep (DIANA 1984)
3 – 09 Sep (ERIN 2001)
4 – 03 Sep (ARLENE 1967)
5 – 02 Sep (DEBBY 1988)

[HurricaneJosh]

Slight reprieve-- all hope isn't lost yet.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING...
AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THAT THE
STORM HAD A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS
SINCE DISSOLVED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LARGER BUT BROKEN INNER
BAND OF CONVECTION. IN SOME SENSE...THIS SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT...EXCEPT THAT HUMBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

[eyewall]

Slight reprieve-- all hope isn't lost yet.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING...

AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THAT THE

STORM HAD A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS

SINCE DISSOLVED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LARGER BUT BROKEN INNER

BAND OF CONVECTION. IN SOME SENSE...THIS SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL

REPLACEMENT...EXCEPT THAT HUMBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF

SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

 

 

It will be close

[Eyewall2005]

Latest ECMWF weeklies and monthlies are hinting at an active October in the w. Atlantic/w. Caribbean/Gulf, with the upper pattern suggesting a potential threat for the eastern Gulf Coast and up the East Coast.

This blog has ECMWF weekly 500 mb anomalies through first week of October (scroll toward bottom of post):

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2013/09/09/an-early-fall-heat-wave/

Here's the general picture of ECMWF's October forecast, courtesy Brett Anderson, meteorologist at AccuWeather. See his blog for full details:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-computer-model-forecast-through-february-2014/17586203

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-update-into-early-october/17488275

Brett Anderson_ECMWF monthly.png

Most of the GFS ensembles long-range continue to show a system in NW Carib heading north affecting Florida.

[David Reimer]

Texas could sure use the rain, however we don't need a dryish system that will bring wind and fire danger (September 2011 anyone?). That's always a concern on my mind. 

[HurricaneJosh]

Texas could sure use the rain, however we don't need a dryish system that will bring wind and fire danger (September 2011 anyone?). That's always a concern on my mind. 

 

Well, hopefully it's a 140-kt whopper with 20-in rain totals, so you won't have to worry.

[Ed Lizard]

Texas could sure use the rain, however we don't need a dryish system that will bring wind and fire danger (September 2011 anyone?). That's always a concern on my mind. 

 

0Z GFS sucked, but 6Z GFS bringing remnant low Northward just inland would make the entire world celebrate.

 

[Srain]

[HurricaneJosh]

I'm on the edge of my seat Re: the path of this remnant low and where the moisture might go.  Omg.

[SunnyFL]

Hope TX gets some rain, but not this much!

 

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/081/mwr-081-07-0195.pdf

[AutoPenalti]

I want a Florida-cane, I'm desperate for one. I could careless if its a 70kt sheared up one.

[NJwinter23]

Yeaahhh thats a drought buster on the gfs

[Ed Lizard]

I'm on the edge of my seat Re: the path of this remnant low and where the moisture might go.  Omg.

You xeriscape or something?  The city of Austin would pay people to tear out their lawns and plant desert flora.

 

 

Anyway, 12Z GFS suggests a landfall better than Don and not too far South of the international border.  Best wind might be North of the border, might get sustained TS winds at Port Isabel.

 

 

 

 

Technically, the bluebonnet is the state flower, but...

 

 

[icebreaker5221]

You xeriscape or something?  The city of Austin would pay people to tear out their lawns and plant desert flora.

 

Anyway, 12Z GFS suggests a landfall better than Don and not too far South of the international border.  Best wind might be North of the border, might get sustained TS winds at Port Isabel.

 

Technically, the bluebonnet is the state flower, but...

 

 

 

12Z GFS looks like a mess to me.  On one hand upper levels look great - 200 mb anticyclone at e.g. 111 h encompasses an area of 20 deg Lat x 20 deg Lon easily.  Positive TPW anomalies also cover nearly as large an area.  Only problem is consolidating the low-level vorticity.  Maybe everything will tighten up right before landfall, but it's very difficult to focus the low-level convergence in the presence of such widespread convection and broad low pressure. 

[GaWx]

The last four runs of the gfs show home brew hybrid development not far off of the SE US coast 9/19-20 below rather strong surface high pressure and upper ridging, which sometimes creates a very slow moving if not trapping scenario looking back in history. Diana of 1984 was somewhat similar. If this scenario holds up for several more days of model runs, things could get pretty interesting for the east coast and perhaps the Gulf. Strong and persistent NE US surface high pressure tends to promote convergence underneath, which can easily promote the formation of organized surface low pressure. This tends to occur sometimes, especially between mid Sep. and mid Oct. once stronger surface highs become more prevalent and move into and tend to sit in or just offshore the NE US with the change of seasons and before SST's have had a chance to cool much.

[Srain]

Looks like a big rain maker for Mexico and Texas.

[Jonger]

8pm tonight is the cutoff? Or is that tomorrow?

 

For the record, that is.

[wxmx]

8am tomorrow

[Superstorm93]

Actually doesn't look half bad right now. Might be interesting to see how it does with the time it has in the BOC later in the week. 

 

Should at least put another depression on the board

 

[phil882]

 

 

12Z GFS looks like a mess to me.  On one hand upper levels look great - 200 mb anticyclone at e.g. 111 h encompasses an area of 20 deg Lat x 20 deg Lon easily.  Positive TPW anomalies also cover nearly as large an area.  Only problem is consolidating the low-level vorticity.  Maybe everything will tighten up right before landfall, but it's very difficult to focus the low-level convergence in the presence of such widespread convection and broad low pressure. 

 

Yep! The system the models are developing is a CA gyre like circulation, which is very broad and contains multiple mesovorticies competing for attention. This is not unlike other CA gyres that I have been researching that have occurred around this time (Frances 1998 being a pretty good case example). 

 

I mentioned this a few days ago, that while occasionally these systems turn into robust large TCs (Wilma 2005, Roxanne 1995, Opal 1995 being good examples) they need to spend a large time over open waters in allowing the vorticity to accumulate and organize. The problem with this gyre is that it looks to only spend a relatively short (<72 hours) period of time over open waters. 

 

As Ed, Jorge, and Steve have noted... the main threat with this system per the operational forecast is heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding wherever this system goes. 

[phil882]

I hope in the TCR they peg regenesis back to around 18z yesterday... this has been a TC for a while, but the NHC tends to be slow when they bust horribly on TCG probabilities. 

 

I'm also gonna go out on a limb and say this is stronger than 35 knots:

 

 

 

Shocker... 

 

..GABRIELLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...

 

1:30 PM AST Tue Sep 10

Location: 30.9°N 64.8°W

Moving: N at 12 mph

Min pressure: 1003 mb

Max sustained: 50 mph

[Superstorm93]

5 Knots away per ATCF

 

AL, 09, 2013091018, , BEST, 0, 147N, 279W, 60, 993, TS, 
 

[phil882]

5 Knots away per ATCF

 

AL, 09, 2013091018, , BEST, 0, 147N, 279W, 60, 993, TS, 

 

20130910.1745.goes13.x.vis2km.09LHUMBERTO.55kts-998mb-143N-274W.100pc.jpg

 

The inner core isn't quite well defined yet though... it looks like we have see a dry air intrusion take place during the diurnal minimum. The good news for Humberto, however, is that the vertical wind shear has substantially weakened, which once the inner core moisture moistens back up should lead to another period of intensification during the diurnal max tonight.

[icebreaker5221]

Gotta love upper lows brushing the coast of Venezuela, missing PR to the south. 

[Ed Lizard]

Euro tropical storm looks decent enough, but almost no rain IMBY.  Doesn't look like a hurricane.

[wxmx]

Actually doesn't look half bad right now. Might be interesting to see how it does with the time it has in the BOC later in the week. 

 

Should at least put another depression on the board

 

GOES18182013253oiK2zY.jpg

It looks good, though the mid and low level vortices are not colocated, so this might be a flash in the pan. On the bright side, energy from different levels are getting closer and shear has been diminishing, now being <15 kts.

 

As Phil has noted, this will probably have consolidation/competition issues...especially from the EPAC energy. As much organization as possible prior to the Yucatan will be a big plus. Some west moving big canes have consolidated on time, even though their limited time over water, but they already had "that look" when entering the BoC.

 

CMC, Euro, UKie and FIM (15km) have similar tracks aiming just south of Tampico. The GFS is a bit north, near the TX/MX border, maybe because it shows dominant low level energy exiting the Yucatan from it's north portion, and a weaker ridge north. Currently I lean towards the southern solutions, and a strong TS, low end cane.

[Ed Lizard]

It looks good, though the mid and low level vortices are not colocated, so this might be a flash in the pan. On the bright side, energy from different levels are getting closer and shear has been diminishing, now being <15 kts.

 

As Phil has noted, this will probably have consolidation/competition issues...especially from the EPAC energy. As much organization as possible prior to the Yucatan will be a big plus. Some west moving big canes have consolidated on time, even though their limited time over water, but they already had "that look" when entering the BoC.

 

CMC, Euro, UKie and FIM (15km) have similar tracks aiming just south of Tampico. The GFS is a bit north, near the TX/MX border, maybe because it shows dominant low level energy exiting the Yucatan from it's north portion, and a weaker ridge north. Currently I lean towards the southern solutions, and a strong TS, low end cane.

 

I don't know how FIMS are initialized, but 12Z FIM is almost a clone of the GFS, a sprawling, sloppy looking tropical storm in Northern Mexico.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Euro tropical storm looks decent enough, but almost no rain IMBY.  Doesn't look like a hurricane.

euro does actually get some decent rains into YBY eventually

[Ed Lizard]

euro does actually get some decent rains into YBY eventually

 

I can only see rain through Hour 168 until AccuWx PPV graphics update in another hour or two.

 

On the FIM-9 closely matching the GFS

BTW, since they are a different type of dynamic global model, how much common intial data does go in them?  I *think* the FIM uses a different initialization scheme, but the model description page seems to require a NOAA log-in.

 

But from the main page

 

22 Aug 2011 - Update:

Hurricane season: FIMY (EnKF init conds) is being used as experimental guidance at the Natl. Hurricane Center as part of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP).

 

[thewxmann]

This kinda looks like a weaker version of Stan from 2005.