Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[Amped]

18z GFS has the gulf storm down into the mid 990s before landfall. Also an impressive closed H7 low with it. Would probably be a CAT1 prior to landfall if that verified.

[HurricaneJosh]

That's a big azz storm..

 

Yeah, wtf??  That is crazy.

 

I like how the models are at least sniffing some Gulf action.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[wxmx]

The BOC has had plenty of moisture this summer.

 

P.gif

I think the area around Tampico has been super wet for the past few years.

[bluewave]

I think the area around Tampico has been super wet for the past few years.

 

It has been quite a run there. Almost looks like a local dipole pattern between the 

EPAC/BOC and Caribbean.

 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

40% in 48 hours, 50% in 120 hours for 92L. NHC, "ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN

THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH."

 

BOC/Caribbean system up to 40% in 5 days.

[phil882]

40% in 48 hours, 50% in 120 hours for 92L. NHC, "ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN

THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE

FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE

THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH."

 

BOC/Caribbean system up to 40% in 5 days.

 

This is a TD/TS right now given the current satellite presentation. If the convection hangs on for another 3-6 hours it will likely be re-classified. 

[HurricaneJosh]

Kinda havin' slight tingles Re: the BoC.  Scott makes me feel ashamed about it, though.

[Ed Lizard]

Kinda havin' slight tingles Re: the BoC.  Scott makes me feel ashamed about it, though.

12Z High res T1148 enKF GFS says very weak and rather far South.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/control/2013090912/mslp_gfsenkf_ATL_2013090912.html

[HurricaneJosh]

12Z High res T1148 enKF GFS says very weak and rather far South.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/control/2013090912/mslp_gfsenkf_ATL_2013090912.html

 

Why are you harassing me with negative buzzkills via multiple channels?  Punishin' me for somethin'??

[Ed Lizard]

Why are you harassing me with negative buzzkills via multiple channels?  Punishin' me for somethin'??

 

No, I came here first.  I was hoping for a CRP storm and, well, you know what I want with a CRP storm.  Besides video and forum excitement.  And all the models are a buzzkill.

 

Very High res GFS control with enKF initialization, pretty high res for an ensemble GFS enKF ensembles, the 18 GEFS, the 12Z and 18Z FIMS.  Just isn't there.  12Z GEFS were the last optimistic sign from model land.

 

Any positive sign, I weenie on it.  I posted an early NHC forecast on a 90 knot Bret land-falling South of the border six hours ago as a sign of hope.  Maybe the 0Z runs will come in better. 

[Ed Lizard]

I'm guessing Gabrielle has an LLC, and it may not be all that far West of the MLC, and the MLC looks healthy.  SSD page only had a T1 number, but I think it is probably a depression again,

[HurricaneJosh]

In Tropical Dude News...

 

Since Humberto did not become a hurricane on 09 Sep, this season has beat out 2001 for third place on the list of seasons with the latest first 'cane. Let's see if 2013 can get to second place by beating out 1984.  Diana became a 'cane at 12Z on 10 Sep 1984, which is 8 am EDT, so I think 2013 will beat out 1984:

 

1 – 11 Sep (GUSTAV 2002)

2 – 10 Sep (DIANA 1984)

****2013 is here so far.*****

3 – 09 Sep (ERIN 2001)

4 – 03 Sep (ARLENE 1967)

5 – 02 Sep (DEBBY 1988)

[Minnesota Meso]

I have a question for the Hurricane experts here, I have seen some winter forecast that like the analog years of 62-63, and 2008-2009, but haven't  taken into account the slow start to the hurricane season this year, how does this year compare to 62-63, and 2008-2009?

[GaWx]

I have a question for the Hurricane experts here, I have seen some winter forecast that like the analog years of 62-63, and 2008-2009, but haven't  taken into account the slow start to the hurricane season this year, how does this year compare to 62-63, and 2008-2009?

 

 1962-3 had actually seen far fewer storms as of 9/10. However, 2008-9 was far more active, especially in terms of intense storms, as of 9/10.

[Minnesota Meso]

 1962-3 had actually seen far fewer storms as of 9/10. However, 2008-9 was far more active, especially in terms of intense storms, as of 9/10.

 

Thank you!.....not sure if it helps me or not, I may not get a chance to look at things closely as work is taking much more time than I thought, I just think a winter forecast that doesn't include the H season is some what foolish.

[free_man]

I'm guessing Gabrielle has an LLC, and it may not be all that far West of the MLC, and the MLC looks healthy.  SSD page only had a T1 number, but I think it is probably a depression again,

Looks pretty good this AM.  

[Superstorm93]

That escalated quickly...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. IN ADDITION... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED ON THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT OVER OR VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE... 80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE THURSDAY WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Floydbuster]

Two cherries and Humberto.

 

If the soon-to-be Caribbean invest could stay moving slowly and gain some latitude, we could have a significant tropical cyclone threat for the Western Gulf Coast. Of course, it's still in the formative stages. Like said before, eventually one has to strengthen and move north rather than straight into Mexico.

[dan88]

Back to Gabrielle

 

invest_RENUMBER_al922013_al072013.ren

[ineedsnow]

...GABRIELLE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 65.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[phil882]

I hope in the TCR they peg regenesis back to around 18z yesterday... this has been a TC for a while, but the NHC tends to be slow when they bust horribly on TCG probabilities. 

 

I'm also gonna go out on a limb and say this is stronger than 35 knots:

 

[HurricaneJosh]

In Tropical Dude News...

 

Since Humberto did not become a hurricane on 09 Sep, this season has beat out 2001 for third place on the list of seasons with the latest first 'cane. Let's see if 2013 can get to second place by beating out 1984.  Diana became a 'cane at 12Z on 10 Sep 1984, which is 8 am EDT, so I think 2013 will beat out 1984:

 

1 – 11 Sep (GUSTAV 2002)

2 – 10 Sep (DIANA 1984)

****2013 is here so far.*****

3 – 09 Sep (ERIN 2001)

4 – 03 Sep (ARLENE 1967)

5 – 02 Sep (DEBBY 1988)

It looks inevitable that Humberto will become a hurricane today. Blah. The latest NHC forecast brings it to 65 kt around 18Z, which would put 2013 in second place, beating out 1984.

[jconsor]

Latest ECMWF weeklies and monthlies are hinting at an active October in the w. Atlantic/w. Caribbean/Gulf, with the upper pattern suggesting a potential threat for the eastern Gulf Coast and up the East Coast.

 

This blog has ECMWF weekly 500 mb anomalies through first week of October (scroll toward bottom of post):

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2013/09/09/an-early-fall-heat-wave/

 

Here's the general picture of ECMWF's October forecast, courtesy Brett Anderson, meteorologist at AccuWeather.  See his blog for full details:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-computer-model-forecast-through-february-2014/17586203

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-update-into-early-october/17488275

 

 

 

 

[EasternUSWX]

More Gulf/Caribbean formation on GFS late in the run. 

 

[phlwx]

0z GFS looks to bring the NW Carib feature within 100-150 miles of Brownsville (landfall south of it) by Sunday.

[Mike.Ventrice]

Guys,

I'm starting to see signs of a developing system over the western Caribbean in 120-150 hour time that could track towards the northwest over the Gulf of Mexico... This is being advertised in over half of the GFS enKF ensemble members in this mornings 00Z forecast and poses an immediate threat to the Gulf States. With the cold air surge (or edge wave) propagating down the lee of the Andes in South America, the southern Caribbean will likely become pretty unstable over the next few days... 

 

 

Looks like this may be manifesting eh? Models did a relatively poor job with this disturbance with exception of the GFS-enKF ensembles.

[Ed Lizard]

T1148 GFS not impressed.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/control/2013091000/mslp_gfsenkf_ATL_2013091000.html

 

Most of the T574 GFS enKF ensembles- not impressed.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/ens/2013091000/mslp_gfsenkf_ATL_2013091000.html

 

 

 

0Z 15 km FIM is again a 40 to 45 knot storm near/South of Tampico.

[Srain]

Some local Texas thoughts from Pro Met Jeff L (Harris County Flood Control District) regarding the Bay of Campeche potential:

 

Tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico and likely develop into a tropical cyclone late this week or this weekend.

 

Focus for the next several days will be on the current tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea and its potential for development and impacts along the TX coast. Current satellite images show a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea in association with what appears to be the southern end of the tropical wave that spawned TS Gabrielle last week. This wave is moving toward the WNW and should progress into the Yucatan before being able to develop.

 

Global forecast models suggest this wave will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico late this week in the Thursday-Friday time period and all show development of surface low pressure. The Bay of Campeche has been a favored area for development this year and tropical systems in this region under favorable upper level conditions have a tendency to spin up quickly. While most of the global models want to track the system into MX much like several other tropical storms have done this year in the southern Gulf, there are some trends that suggest a westward track is not a 100% done deal.

 

Upper level steering high pressure currently anchored over the central plains will be drifting southward over the next few days and by late this week be located over TX into the SE US. This pattern would block any potential northward turn of a Bay of Campeche tropical system and send the system on a W to WNW into MX. However over the weekend into early next week, this high begins to break down and shift into the SE US under the approach of a W US trough. This trough erodes the western edge of the ridge protection over TX and does open a path for a tropical system to turn NW or NNW toward the NW Gulf coast. At the moment this is the least likely of the two options…but it is a possibility and while it was only supported by a few model ensemble members yesterday, the 06Z GFS run is concerning for coastal TX…with a system tracking NNW toward the CRP area.

 

Upper air conditions look overly favorable for development and there appears to be a good shot at this system becoming a hurricane depending on how long it remains over the water.

The National Hurricane Center indicates a 60% chance…a high chance….of development of a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days and a 10% chance over the next 48 hours.

 

Impacts:

 

A long fetch ESE to E will be building seas across the Gulf over the next several days. This fetch will result in the formation of long period swells and tidal pile-up along the TX coast. This process is already underway with current coastal tidal sites averaging .5 to 1.0 ft above normal predicted levels. Using the ET-surge modeling with wind grids from the GFS model shows a developing coastal storm surge of around .5 of a foot toward the end of the week and total coastal water levels rising to around 1.0-2.5 ft. These levels would not cause any significant coastal flooding issues, but large swells will be breaking well up the beach and possibly at the base of dunes resulting in some potential for beach erosion and strong rip currents.

Tides and seas would require additional increases if any southern Gulf tropical cyclone moved further northward or the pressure gradient increased between the tropical system and high pressure to our NE.

 

Stay tuned!

[NJwinter23]

Looks like this may be manifesting eh? Models did a relatively poor job with this disturbance with exception of the GFS-enKF ensembles.

 

Have they done a poor job though in that they've painted the threat? I know dating back a few days I recall the models showing a broad area of low pressure gathering in the Bay of Campeche for late this week, and the threat was inherently discussed by Phil and others (you as well with the post you quoted) as this CA gyre scenario. We'll see what ultimately comes of this later in the week.