icebreaker5221 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'd be surprised if anything made it as far north as the central TX coastline as a few members advertise. Climo tracks for BOC disturbances, especially as the year goes on, are for them to come north. They can't all slice off the tangent of the bottom of the BOC forever. I never said that this one would slice west / be a repeat of TD8 or Fernand. Certainly the ridge to the north is weaker this time around, and the northern coast of eastern MX (possibly S TX?) is not out of the question. I was simply doubting anything reaching as far north as P003 and P004 advertise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 Climo tracks for BOC disturbances, especially as the year goes on, are for them to come north. They can't all slice off the tangent of the bottom of the BOC forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Not looking that bad...some arc clouds, but overall is decent for something that's not even an INVEST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 That does look kinda good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 Maybe they'll Lemonize it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 12z euro has it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 12z euro has it as well. Yep, a Tampico hit, it looks better than Fernand as well. The binary interaction with the EPAC disturbance in the Euro consists mostly of the stronger disturbance (BoC) mopping the floor with the EPAC disturbance...in the GFS there's less disparity in forces, which slows down the BoC disturbance and allows for heights in the N GoM to weaken enough to slow down and drift the cyclone a bit further north the Tamaulipas coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Yep, a Tampico hit, it looks better than Fernand as well. The binary interaction with the EPAC disturbance in the Euro consists mostly of the stronger disturbance (BoC) mopping the floor with the EPAC disturbance...in the GFS there's less disparity in forces, which slows down the BoC disturbance and allows for heights in the N GoM to weaken enough to slow down and drift the cyclone a bit further north the Tamaulipas coast. Eternally glass one eighth full the future tropical storm (sub 1004 mb on Euro) would be a tad further East or North, it could feel the weakness to its North and reach near BRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Yep, a Tampico hit, it looks better than Fernand as well. The binary interaction with the EPAC disturbance in the Euro consists mostly of the stronger disturbance (BoC) mopping the floor with the EPAC disturbance...in the GFS there's less disparity in forces, which slows down the BoC disturbance and allows for heights in the N GoM to weaken enough to slow down and drift the cyclone a bit further north the Tamaulipas coast. As best I can tell with the crappy maps on meteocetre + the text output, the UKMET has the opposite result (EPAC stronger than BOC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Not looking that bad...some arc clouds, but overall is decent for something that's not even an INVEST o_0 ...and with that trough and front coming in on the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 As best I can tell with the crappy maps on meteocetre + the text output, the UKMET has the opposite result (EPAC stronger than BOC). Can't tell with those maps...at 120h they have one closed isobar each, but are far apart enough to not interact. A stronger EPac would make the BoC disturbance take a dive SW with little development if close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 FWIW, 12Z 15 km res FIM-9 (per FIM page, showed near equal skill to Euro last season), a 40 to 45 knot storm for Tampico in a week, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 FWIW, 12Z 15 km res FIM-9 (per FIM page, showed near equal skill to Euro last season), a 40 to 45 knot storm for Tampico in a week, CMC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Whatever happened to the AmWx forum mesoscale model ( some version of the WRF, I don't remember much else) that could be run for particular systems? Or am I remembering that right? Mention of the CMC made me think of that, for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 perhaps this is one of those times when globals sniffing out development will translate into a short-lived but formidable system a la Karl in '10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Ok, so who wants to start the Humberto thread? Yes... it is a fish... but it will most likely become the first hurricane of the year and also has the potential to last quite for a while if it is missed by that trough on the 16/17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Ok, so who wants to start the Humberto thread? Yes... it is a fish... but it will most likely become the first hurricane of the year and also has the potential to last quite for a while if it is missed by that trough on the 16/17th. Not it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 perhaps this is one of those times when globals sniffing out development will translate into a short-lived but formidable system a la Karl in '10. Sometimes systems come farher North and intensity far more than expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 20/2100Z 21.3N 94.4W 55 KTS 12HR VT 21/0600Z 22.0N 94.4W 65 KTS 24HR VT 21/1800Z 22.7N 94.8W 75 KTS 36HR VT 22/0600Z 23.3N 95.5W 85 KTS 48HR VT 22/1800Z 24.0N 96.5W 90 KTS 72HR VT 23/1800Z 24.5N 98.0W 75 KTS...INLAND Get South of RKP, and oceanic heat content is decent. Glass 1/16th optimistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I was just thinking to myself who would be the first to bring up Bret... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 This video kind of summarizes the season so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Gabrielle is looking a little more impressive too... Bermuda might want to keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Is it just me or did Humberto just take a SW jog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 The 12z ECMWF did continue the trend of bring more low-level vorticity over the BOC... definitely a moderate to strong TC with very favorable upper level winds. The large size of the initial vortex might make it difficult to rapidly intensify but it now looks to have a good 48-72 hours over open waters from genesis, which is certainly an improvement from the previous 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 To quote Srain (Steve): The 12z ECMWF ensemble certainly "raises an eyebrow": Does anyone have access to the individual ensemble member outputs? If so, please share your thoughts. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm not sure how accurate the FIM-7 is, but it takes a 75 knot hurricane into Louisiana from the same disturbance the models are developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm not sure how accurate the FIM-7 is, but it takes a 75 knot hurricane into Louisiana from the same disturbance the models are developing. That's a big azz storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm not sure how accurate the FIM-7 is, but it takes a 75 knot hurricane into Louisiana from the same disturbance the models are developing. I don't know, the 30 km resolution FIM 8 isn't out, but the 15km FIM 9, the one the FIM page says does comparably to the Euro, was Tampico. FIM7 is 60 km resolution. Waiting for the T1184 GFS with the ens-KF initialization for 12Z http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/control/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Is it time to welcome back Gabrielle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 The BOC has had plenty of moisture this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 This video kind of summarizes the season so far: Hilarious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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