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Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2


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I'd be surprised if anything made it as far north as the central TX coastline as a few members advertise. 

 

Climo tracks for BOC disturbances, especially as the year goes on, are for them to come north.  They can't all slice off the tangent of the bottom of the BOC forever.

 

I never said that this one would slice west / be a repeat of TD8 or Fernand.  Certainly the ridge to the north is weaker this time around, and the northern coast of eastern MX (possibly S TX?) is not out of the question.  I was simply doubting anything reaching as far north as P003 and P004 advertise.  

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12z euro has it as well. 

Yep, a Tampico hit, it looks better than Fernand as well.

 

The binary interaction with the EPAC disturbance in the Euro consists mostly of the stronger disturbance (BoC) mopping the floor with the EPAC disturbance...in the GFS there's less disparity in forces, which slows down the BoC disturbance and allows for heights in the N GoM to weaken enough to slow down and drift the cyclone a bit further north the Tamaulipas coast.

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Yep, a Tampico hit, it looks better than Fernand as well.

 

The binary interaction with the EPAC disturbance in the Euro consists mostly of the stronger disturbance (BoC) mopping the floor with the EPAC disturbance...in the GFS there's less disparity in forces, which slows down the BoC disturbance and allows for heights in the N GoM to weaken enough to slow down and drift the cyclone a bit further north the Tamaulipas coast.

 

 

Eternally glass one eighth full the future tropical storm (sub 1004 mb on Euro) would be a tad further East or North, it could feel the weakness to its North and reach near BRO

 

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%

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Yep, a Tampico hit, it looks better than Fernand as well.

 

The binary interaction with the EPAC disturbance in the Euro consists mostly of the stronger disturbance (BoC) mopping the floor with the EPAC disturbance...in the GFS there's less disparity in forces, which slows down the BoC disturbance and allows for heights in the N GoM to weaken enough to slow down and drift the cyclone a bit further north the Tamaulipas coast.

 

 

As best I can tell with the crappy maps on meteocetre + the text output, the UKMET has the opposite result (EPAC stronger than BOC).

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As best I can tell with the crappy maps on meteocetre + the text output, the UKMET has the opposite result (EPAC stronger than BOC).

Can't tell with those maps...at 120h they have one closed isobar each, but are far apart enough to not interact. A stronger EPac would make the BoC disturbance take a dive SW with little development if close enough.

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perhaps this is one of those times when globals sniffing out development will translate into a short-lived but formidable system a la Karl in '10. 

 

 

Sometimes systems come farher North and intensity far more than expected.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     20/2100Z 21.3N  94.4W    55 KTS

12HR VT     21/0600Z 22.0N  94.4W    65 KTS

24HR VT     21/1800Z 22.7N  94.8W    75 KTS

36HR VT     22/0600Z 23.3N  95.5W    85 KTS

48HR VT     22/1800Z 24.0N  96.5W    90 KTS

72HR VT     23/1800Z 24.5N  98.0W    75 KTS...INLAND

 

 

Get South of RKP, and oceanic heat content is decent.

 

2013251go.jpg

 

 

:weenie:  Glass 1/16th optimistic!  :weenie:

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The 12z ECMWF did continue the trend of bring more low-level vorticity over the BOC... definitely a moderate to strong TC with very favorable upper level winds. The large size of the initial vortex might make it difficult to rapidly intensify but it now looks to have a good 48-72 hours over open waters from genesis, which is certainly an improvement from the previous 2 runs. 

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I'm not sure how accurate the FIM-7 is, but it takes a 75 knot hurricane into Louisiana from the same disturbance the models are developing.

 

oKYH3od.png

 

 

I don't know, the 30 km resolution FIM 8 isn't out, but the 15km FIM 9, the one the FIM page says does comparably to the Euro, was Tampico.  FIM7 is 60 km resolution.  Waiting for the T1184 GFS with the ens-KF initialization for 12Z

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/control/

post-138-0-92547000-1378761035_thumb.png

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