Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[DopplerWx]

And, meanwhile-- while we're all distracted by this CV garbage-- the GFS show nada in the rest of the basin for the foreseeable future.  Lolz.

too bad this crap cv storm loks destined to kill our record, or else we may have a shot at 0 canes for the year.

[phil882]

And, meanwhile-- while we're all distracted by this CV garbage-- the GFS show nada in the rest of the basin for the foreseeable future.  Lolz.

 

I'd still keep an eye on what happens with the disturbance developing over Central America (CA)... right now both the GFS and ECMWF show most of the energy remaining over land, but it doesn't take much of a weakness over North America to change that in a hurry. The 18z GFS in particular was quite provocative in the long range, and GFS ensembles have been suggestive of a W Caribbean threat. This is a day 5+ threat, so there is a lot of uncertainty.

[free_man]

And, meanwhile-- while we're all distracted by this CV garbage-- the GFS show nada in the rest of the basin for the foreseeable future.  Lolz.

the zzz-range gfs has a weenie carib system that develops.  

[Amped]

too bad this crap cv storm loks destined to kill our record, or else we may have a shot at 0 canes for the year.

 

 

Yeah, but the late October Caribbean storm is also a hard one to miss. The last year without one was 2006. 

 

Obviously the worse number of hurricanes we could have is one. It's kind of like pitching a one hitter or having a one loss season.

[HurricaneJosh]

I'd still keep an eye on what happens with the disturbance developing over Central America (CA)... right now both the GFS and ECMWF show most of the energy remaining over land, but it doesn't take much of a weakness over North America to change that in a hurry. The 18z GFS in particular was quite provocative in the long range, and GFS ensembles have been suggestive of a W Caribbean threat. This is a day 5+ threat, so there is a lot of uncertainty.

 

Yeah, I just looked at the 18Z.  That is pretty provocative.  But then the 00Z-- poof!

[BrianLaverty]

Wilma was a beast. You could argue that Cancun still hasn't recovered from it... I still have the pictures on my computer of the damage.. Ridiculous

[HurricaneJosh]

Yeah, but the late October Caribbean storm is also a hard one to miss. The last year without one was 2006. 

 

Obviously the worse number of hurricanes we could have is one. It's kind of like pitching a one hitter or having a one loss season.

 

Yeah, the NW Caribbean has produced so much Oct magic in the last 20 years-- with so many major landfalls.  What's interesting is that there was a long drought of Oct majors forming in the W Caribbean from Hattie 1961 to Roxanne 1995.  Roxanne broke the dry spell and there have since been a bunch.

[phil882]

Yeah, I just looked at the 18Z.  That is pretty provocative.  But then the 00Z-- poof!

 

Hence the uncertainty... the potential is there, and I think its likely there will be a gyre-like circulation developing over CA (we are approaching the climatologically favored time period of CA gyres). In order to get the necessary transition from a gyre to a TC like structure, you need to have the gyre to spend a substantial period of time over open water, which neither the operational GFS and ECMWF currently do. 

 

Roxanne (1995) actually developed out of a CA gyre which moved far enough into the W Caribbean to induce TCG (the interaction with an upper-level trough in the C Caribbean didn't hurt either).

 

 

 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

Hence the uncertainty... the potential is there, and I think its likely there will be a gyre-like circulation developing over CA (we are approaching the climatologically favored time period of CA gyres). In order to get the necessary transition from a gyre to a TC like structure, you need to have the gyre to spend a substantial period of time over open water, which neither the operational GFS and ECMWF currently do. 

 

Roxanne (1995) actually developed out of a CA gyre which moved far enough into the W Caribbean to induce TCG (the interaction with an upper-level trough in the C Caribbean didn't hurt either).

 

OK, gotcha.  Roxanne was cool.  I'd take another one of those.  The core was a bit wide for my tastes-- probably owing to its gyre-ish origins-- but it came ashore with solid 100-kt winds.

[phil882]

OK, gotcha.  Roxanne was cool.  I'd take another one of those.  The core was a bit wide for my tastes-- probably owing to its gyre-ish origins-- but it came ashore with solid 100-kt winds.

 

Yea it was a pretty solid landfall! From a research perspective, Roxanne is probably best known as the storm that got stuck in the Bay of Campeche, where it spent the next week meandering and making a large loop after emerging from the Yucatan Peninsula. In fact, Roxanne would dissipate before making landfall again. 

 

[jconsor]

Soon-to-be Humberto is likely to join a select group of TCs in the satellite era that became a hurricane E of 30W and S of 20N. 

 

Here's the list, along with the longitude they became a hurricane at:

 

Debby (1961): 25.4W (caused a plane crash in Cape Verde Islands)

Frances (1980) 25.6W

Jeanne (1998): 25.2W

Danielle (2004): 29.2W

Julia (2010): 28.8W

 

2 other such storms formed in the 1940s - the infamous 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane, and hurricane #6 in 1948.

 

For what it's worth (probably not much), all seven seasons had above normal ACE.  Two had particularly late starts - 1948 and 1961.

 

[HurricaneJosh]

Soon-to-be Humberto is likely to join a select group of TCs in the satellite era that became a hurricane E of 30W and S of 20N. 

 

Here's the list, along with the longitude they became a hurricane at:

 

Debby (1961): 25.4W (caused a plane crash in Cape Verde Islands)

Frances (1980) 25.6W

Jeanne (1998): 25.2W

Danielle (2004): 29.2W

Julia (2010): 28.8W

 

2 other such storms formed in the 1940s - the infamous 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane, and hurricane #6 in 1948.

 

For what it's worth (probably not much), all seven seasons had above normal ACE.  Two had particularly late starts - 1948 and 1961.

 

 

Cool trivia, Justin.

 

What are your thoughts Re: the BoC this week?  I notice the NHC gives it a 30% chance of development in the TWO.

 

(Phil?  You, too.)

[phil882]

Cool trivia, Justin.

 

What are your thoughts Re: the BoC this week?  I notice the NHC gives it a 30% chance of development in the TWO.

 

(Phil?  You, too.)

 

The 00z ECMWF has shifted gyre centroid a little further northwest, allowing for a weak TC to develop in the BOC. It still forms close to land though, so it doesn't have much time to organize before the entire circulation moves inland. However, its a baby step in the right direction, where the 12z ECMWF yesterday was too close to land for TCG. 

[phil882]

In other news... meet Humberto!

 

AL, 09, 2013090906, , BEST, 0, 133N, 223W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ,

 

[HurricaneJosh]

The official forecast now has Humberto becoming a 'cane at 06Z 11 Sep, which would be earlier than 2002 by 6 hr-- although they'd be tied in terms of the date.

 

Either way, assuming it doesn't become a 'cane today (09 Sep), it will move into third place, beating out 2001.

[bluewave]

Our most active development of recent years has occurred during or right after MJO

Phase 2. Nice Euro forecast.

 

 

[EasternUSWX]

Best looking thing in the Atlantic i've seen in a while.

 

[Ed Lizard]

The GEFS keep insisting the Caribbean/Gulf/Florida will get active at the end of the run, but each day the action starts about at the same tau as the previous day.  Or the ensembles keep seeing something at the end of the run, but delay it by about a day for each day that passes.

 

Annoying.

 

I'm reminded of the late July posts that the MJO was coming around right after mid-August and the last one to two weeks of August would rock.  Delay, delay, delay.

[Srain]

The 00Z Ensembles continue to advertise that the NW Caribbean and the Western Gulf will be the main area to monitor for TC genesis in the near term. The Euro ensemble mean also suggests that lower pressures will continue across that Region in the longer range with the potential of multiple areas of low pressure developing and meandering across the Western Gulf. While a strong system is not expected at this time, it is becoming a bit more certain that torrential rainfall with flooding issues may be ahead for areas across portions Central America on N to the Mexico Gulf Coast and possibly extending N into Texas.

[Ed Lizard]

The 00Z Ensembles continue to advertise that the NW Caribbean and the Western Gulf will be the main area to monitor for TC genesis in the near term. The Euro ensemble mean also suggests that lower pressures will continue across that Region in the longer range with the potential of multiple areas of low pressure developing and meandering across the Western Gulf. While a strong system is not expected at this time, it is becoming a bit more certain that torrential rainfall with flooding issues may be ahead for areas across portions Central America on N to the Mexico Gulf Coast and possibly extending N into Texas.

 

 

Gensis probs look high, a bunch of the 6Z ensemble shave 1008 mb lows, mostly stuck deep into the bottom of the BoC, about 6 have TS strength storms, most of the those at the Northern end of the envelope 4-6 days from now.  Makes sense, further North, less land, less competition from Pacific, better developed.  None of the ensembles seem to have anything approaching red meat, or even tofu substitute meat storms.

 

Ensemble means show this, lowest mean pressure deep in the BoC, most spread (with the fewer but deeper perturbation solutions farther North) North of the lowest mean pressure.  Obviously, we all want a poorly organized TS with a large rain field spread out over Texas landfalling somewhere down BRO or CRP way, or a stronger TS with a more concentrated rain shield between CRP and PSX or even GLS.

 

Sadly, the means don't support desperrately needed rain around IAH/DWH

[Tropopause_Fold]

fwiw - 12z GFS has a system developing just west of the yucatan mid-week, moving over the BOC and heading NW toward the northern MX coast this coming weekend.

[Ed Lizard]

The potential Humberto failed recurve, going from East of due North back to almost due West (and getting almost to 60W as a trackable wave), that'd be interesting.

[Wannabehippie]

What is going in this season to cause it to be such a dud after it was expected to be a busy season?  I posted this in a different tread, was told to search in the tropical thread for the answer, but I cannot find it.

[wxsmwhrms]

What is going in this season to cause it to be such a dud after it was expected to be a busy season?  I posted this in a different tread, was told to search in the tropical thread for the answer, but I cannot find it.

 

There has been some great discussion about this earlier in the thread - but recognize at this point we're talking educated speculation.  If it was that easy to have an answer to that question, well, the person who had the answer probably wouldn't be messing around with postulating it on here...

[Srain]

Heh...

[wxmx]

The feature that models have been developing in the SW GoM is already showing signs of organization in the NW Caribbean...this is encouraging. There's evident mid level turning and a developing anticyclone. The CIMSS site show 20+ kts shear, with the anticyclone south of the disturbance, but I think this ULAC has translated north some. ASCAT shows little on the surface (recent pass 15:01Z), so this is mostly mid level for now. 12z GFS is back to being a bit more bullish, with the main hindrance being the complexity involved with the EPAC energy interaction of the gyre.

[thewxmann]

Go P003/P005!

[icebreaker5221]

Heh...

 

Seems to be a lot of spread as far as time and location of genesis, as well as significant spread as far as where and when said storm will make landfall, but near 100% agreement that something will form (a lot of them already made landfall before the 180 h image you posted).  I'd be surprised if anything made it as far north as the central TX coastline as a few members advertise.  In any event, looks like a very persistent moist easterly fetch off the Gulf into S TX, so flooding rains could be a big concern regardless of development. 

 

I'm also impressed by just how low the ambient pressures are.  It's not very often you see <1008 mb for the entire southern GOM and western Caribbean - see 00Z Sat. 

[Ed Lizard]

^^  12Z Op GFS, while still South of the Border, brings one week rainfalls near or in excess of 2 inches of rain to the HOU area.

 

My water oak, I don't know if I'm not watering enough, if it has some kind of fungus making inroads because of stress from the drought since 2008, or the almost always fatal fungally caused 'oak wilt' which is devasating red oaks and live oaks in Texas.  Waiting to make an appointment with a tree expert.

 

But even if it is oak wilt, I'll always wonder if the 5 year dry spell made it susceptible.

 

BTW, quick look at GFS, CMC and NAvGem, the system isn't a complete slam dunk (as Steve's ensembles suggest) to miss South Texas per heights over North America..  The trend is happy, anyway.

 

[Derecho!]

Seems to be a lot of spread as far as time and location of genesis, as well as significant spread as far as where and when said storm will make landfall, but near 100% agreement that something will form (a lot of them already made landfall before the 180 h image you posted).  I'd be surprised if anything made it as far north as the central TX coastline as a few members advertise.  In any event, looks like a very persistent moist easterly fetch off the Gulf into S TX, so flooding rains could be a big concern regardless of development. 

 

I'm also impressed by just how low the ambient pressures are.  It's not very often you see <1008 mb for the entire southern GOM and western Caribbean - see 00Z Sat. 

 

 

Climo tracks for BOC disturbances, especially as the year goes on, are for them to come north.  They can't all slice off the tangent of the bottom of the BOC forever.