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Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2


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Gilbert

wilma

Gilbert yes, Wilma no per a recheck of the Wiki, which I assume has been checked by others, an unofficial peer review.

 

Dean as well...

 

Edit

 

Checking to see if 'Yucatan' meant Mexico or Belize...

 

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  33

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007

500 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR

THE CRUISE SHIP PORT OF COSTA MAYA AROUND 0830 UTC...AND THE EYE IS

NOW JUST INLAND.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER

PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE WAS INTENSIFYING RIGHT UP TO

LANDFALL.  A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST

NORTH OF THE EYE.  MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124

KT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED

WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT.  A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE

NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE

LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING.  BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT.

 

 

Wiki says Costa Maya is in Mexico...

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BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013

500 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE

ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.1N 20.7W

ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...

FOGO...AND BRAVA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND

BRAVA

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The suspense. 

 

INIT 08/2100Z 13.1N 20.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 13.2N 22.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 13.5N 24.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 13.9N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 14.5N 27.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 17.5N 29.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 21.0N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 32.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

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All of the official Cat-5 landfalls in Mexico are:

PACIFIC
Great Mexico Hurricane 1959 (140 kt)

ATLANTIC
Janet 1955 (150 kt)
Anita 1977 (150 kt)
Gilbert 1988 (140 kt)
Dean 2007 (150 kt)

 

Janet, Gilbert, and Dean were Yucatan hits.  Anita was in Tamaulipas, the state S of TX.
 

correct on Wilma.  It was 140mph at landfall.  Underwent an ERC just prior to landfall.


Wilma made landfall on Cozumel with winds of 130 kt (150 mph).

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TD 9 is born.... expected to become weak hurricane in 3 days and be a nice fish WAYYYYYY out there as it curves NE by Day 3

Forecast to be a hurricane late Tuesday, meaning we would miss the record for latest hurricane by less than 24 hours. Trollcane if I've ever seen one.

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ATLANTIC

Wilma made landfall on Cozumel with winds of 130 kt (150 mph).

where are you getting that from.  This link from NCDC says 140mph.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremeevents/specialreports/Hurricane-Wilma2005.pdf

 

 

During the next 24 hours, as Wilma tracked westward, an eyewall replacement cycle was observed, enlarging the eye and decreasing maximum windspeed so that the storm weakened to a strong category 4. However, as the storm weakened somewhat, it also increased in lateral size causing hurricane force winds to extend from only 15 miles from the eye (early on the 19th), to 85 miles during the hours before landfall in Mexico on the 21st. The strengthening phase of the eyewall replacement cycle did not materialize before the hurricane

began interacting with the land and despite a gradually tightening eye, the windspeeds did not regain category 5 status and Wilma made landfall over northeastern Cozumel, Mexico with maximum sustained winds of around 140 mph(120 kts).

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where are you getting that from. This link from NCDC says 140mph.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremeevents/specialreports/Hurricane-Wilma2005.pdf

During the next 24 hours, as Wilma tracked westward, an eyewall replacement cycle was observed, enlarging the eye and decreasing maximum windspeed so that the storm weakened to a strong category 4. However, as the storm weakened somewhat, it also increased in lateral size causing hurricane force winds to extend from only 15 miles from the eye (early on the 19th), to 85 miles during the hours before landfall in Mexico on the 21st. The strengthening phase of the eyewall replacement cycle did not materialize before the hurricane

began interacting with the land and despite a gradually tightening eye, the windspeeds did not regain category 5 status and Wilma made landfall over northeastern Cozumel, Mexico with maximum sustained winds of around 140 mph(120 kts).

You're citing some preliminary report from NOAA, written a week after the cyclone, using operational values.

Always cite the *official* NHC report, which reflects postanalysis: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL252005_Wilma.pdf

As per the official report, the landfall intensity in Cozumel was 130 kt.

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I think we have a chance to get the record still.  The waters are still more hostile than normal to TC's. 

 

Not currently where TD#8 is... its got a very large and deep moisture field surrounding it, low vertical wind shear for the next 48 hours, and warm SSTs for the next 48 hours. I'd be very surprised if this isn't a hurricane within the next 48 hours as it looks convectively healthy currently. Afterwards its going to battle lower SSTs + higher vertical wind shear, which should halt strengthening after then. Until then, I think a period of RI is certainly possible (haven't been able to say that for a while!) 

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WMBas124.png

 

Not as strong as it appears on IR, at least the eastern half isn't.

 

The ASCAT would suggest the center is just on the eastward edge of the convection. However, given the broad nature of the circulation, if that convective burst continues to remain robust, it could spin up a much more tightly wound wind core closer to the convection. Julia (2010) is a good example of this:

 

00z 13 Sep 2010 (you can see how the low-level clouds signify the circulation center is displaced east of the center)

 

2010AL12_4KMIRIMG_201009130000.GIF

 

48 hours later 00z 15 Sep 2010 (at this point the storm is undergoing RI and in the process of becoming a Category 4 hurricane... the strongest eastward major hurricane on record). While I don't necessarily expect that for TD #9 I think intensification to a low-mid end hurricane is possible in the same period of time. 

 

2010AL12_4KMIRIMG_201009150000.GIF

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