Sunny and Warm Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 At least one. I know of this one only because Josh mentioned it on the Pacific thread... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1959_Mexico_Hurricane Gilbert wilma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Gilbert wilma Gilbert yes, Wilma no per a recheck of the Wiki, which I assume has been checked by others, an unofficial peer review. Dean as well... Edit Checking to see if 'Yucatan' meant Mexico or Belize... HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007 DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR THE CRUISE SHIP PORT OF COSTA MAYA AROUND 0830 UTC...AND THE EYE IS NOW JUST INLAND. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE WAS INTENSIFYING RIGHT UP TO LANDFALL. A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST NORTH OF THE EYE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124 KT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT. Wiki says Costa Maya is in Mexico... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 correct on Wilma. It was 140mph at landfall. Underwent an ERC just prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 TD 9 is born.... expected to become weak hurricane in 3 days and be a nice fish WAYYYYYY out there as it curves NE by Day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 20.7W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO... FOGO...AND BRAVA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2013/tropical-depression-Nine?map=5day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Well, GG, doesn't look like we'll make it to the latest first hurricane record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 The suspense. INIT 08/2100Z 13.1N 20.7W 25 KT 30 MPH12H 09/0600Z 13.2N 22.1W 30 KT 35 MPH24H 09/1800Z 13.5N 24.3W 35 KT 40 MPH36H 10/0600Z 13.9N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH48H 10/1800Z 14.5N 27.9W 55 KT 65 MPH72H 11/1800Z 17.5N 29.5W 70 KT 80 MPH96H 12/1800Z 21.0N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 32.5W 65 KT 75 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2013 Author Share Posted September 8, 2013 All of the official Cat-5 landfalls in Mexico are:PACIFICGreat Mexico Hurricane 1959 (140 kt)ATLANTICJanet 1955 (150 kt)Anita 1977 (150 kt)Gilbert 1988 (140 kt)Dean 2007 (150 kt) Janet, Gilbert, and Dean were Yucatan hits. Anita was in Tamaulipas, the state S of TX. correct on Wilma. It was 140mph at landfall. Underwent an ERC just prior to landfall. Wilma made landfall on Cozumel with winds of 130 kt (150 mph). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 TD 9 is born.... expected to become weak hurricane in 3 days and be a nice fish WAYYYYYY out there as it curves NE by Day 3 Forecast to be a hurricane late Tuesday, meaning we would miss the record for latest hurricane by less than 24 hours. Trollcane if I've ever seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2013 Author Share Posted September 8, 2013 Forecast to be a hurricane late Tuesday, meaning we would miss the record for latest hurricane by less than 24 hours. Trollcane if I've ever seen one. They show it becoming a hurricane at 18Z 11 Sep, which would actually break the record, which is 12Z 11 Sep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 ATLANTIC Wilma made landfall on Cozumel with winds of 130 kt (150 mph). where are you getting that from. This link from NCDC says 140mph. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremeevents/specialreports/Hurricane-Wilma2005.pdf During the next 24 hours, as Wilma tracked westward, an eyewall replacement cycle was observed, enlarging the eye and decreasing maximum windspeed so that the storm weakened to a strong category 4. However, as the storm weakened somewhat, it also increased in lateral size causing hurricane force winds to extend from only 15 miles from the eye (early on the 19th), to 85 miles during the hours before landfall in Mexico on the 21st. The strengthening phase of the eyewall replacement cycle did not materialize before the hurricane began interacting with the land and despite a gradually tightening eye, the windspeeds did not regain category 5 status and Wilma made landfall over northeastern Cozumel, Mexico with maximum sustained winds of around 140 mph(120 kts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 They show it becoming a hurricane at 18Z 11 Sep, which would actually break the record, which is 12Z 11 Sep. Isn't the record 15z 11 Sep. Sorry to seemingly disagree two posts in a row. Happens I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2013 Author Share Posted September 8, 2013 where are you getting that from. This link from NCDC says 140mph. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremeevents/specialreports/Hurricane-Wilma2005.pdf During the next 24 hours, as Wilma tracked westward, an eyewall replacement cycle was observed, enlarging the eye and decreasing maximum windspeed so that the storm weakened to a strong category 4. However, as the storm weakened somewhat, it also increased in lateral size causing hurricane force winds to extend from only 15 miles from the eye (early on the 19th), to 85 miles during the hours before landfall in Mexico on the 21st. The strengthening phase of the eyewall replacement cycle did not materialize before the hurricane began interacting with the land and despite a gradually tightening eye, the windspeeds did not regain category 5 status and Wilma made landfall over northeastern Cozumel, Mexico with maximum sustained winds of around 140 mph(120 kts). You're citing some preliminary report from NOAA, written a week after the cyclone, using operational values.Always cite the *official* NHC report, which reflects postanalysis: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL252005_Wilma.pdf As per the official report, the landfall intensity in Cozumel was 130 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2013 Author Share Posted September 8, 2013 Isn't the record 15z 11 Sep. Sorry to seemingly disagree two posts in a row. Happens I guess. "Just before 12Z," as per the official NHC report (and best-track data): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002gustav.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 "Just before 12Z," as per the official NHC report (and best-track data): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002gustav.shtml thanks on both posts Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Just a horribe season lord..TS 's recurving near the capeverdes is that all this season has to offer? :0( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Just a horribe season lord..TS 's recurving near the capeverdes is that all this season has to offer? :0( Watch we'll end up with 4 hurricanes to make it just moderately crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 thanks on both posts Josh You're welcome, Sunny & Warm. Always nice chatting with ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I think we have a chance to get the record still. The waters are still more hostile than normal to TC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 It does exist. Referring to -80C convection here. That thing we've not seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I think we have a chance to get the record still. The waters are still more hostile than normal to TC's. Not currently where TD#8 is... its got a very large and deep moisture field surrounding it, low vertical wind shear for the next 48 hours, and warm SSTs for the next 48 hours. I'd be very surprised if this isn't a hurricane within the next 48 hours as it looks convectively healthy currently. Afterwards its going to battle lower SSTs + higher vertical wind shear, which should halt strengthening after then. Until then, I think a period of RI is certainly possible (haven't been able to say that for a while!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Not as strong as it appears on IR, at least the eastern half isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Not as strong as it appears on IR, at least the eastern half isn't. The ASCAT would suggest the center is just on the eastward edge of the convection. However, given the broad nature of the circulation, if that convective burst continues to remain robust, it could spin up a much more tightly wound wind core closer to the convection. Julia (2010) is a good example of this: 00z 13 Sep 2010 (you can see how the low-level clouds signify the circulation center is displaced east of the center) 48 hours later 00z 15 Sep 2010 (at this point the storm is undergoing RI and in the process of becoming a Category 4 hurricane... the strongest eastward major hurricane on record). While I don't necessarily expect that for TD #9 I think intensification to a low-mid end hurricane is possible in the same period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 A ship at 14.2N 20.5W reported a sustained wind of 30 mph at 0z. ASCAT suggests the wind there should be 15-20 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Tension is killing me. 36H 10/1200Z 14.2N 27.6W 55 KT 65 MPH48H 11/0000Z 15.2N 28.6W 60 KT 70 MPH72H 12/0000Z 18.5N 30.0W 70 KT 80 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Nail biter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 0z GFS says the record will NOT be broken. Makes it a hurricane around 0z September 11 (that's 990mb): Peak of 973mb (~Cat 2) in 78 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 Looks like crap. Cape Verse recurver. Boringest system of the century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 And, meanwhile-- while we're all distracted by this CV garbage-- the GFS show nada in the rest of the basin for the foreseeable future. Lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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