Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[EasternUSWX]

Y'all can joke all you want, but you better not hope that CV thing becomes a 'cane-- cuz if it does, heads are gonna roll in this thread.

 

Just sayin'.

 

I'm scurrrreddd!! 

[Sunny and Warm]

Y'all can joke all you want, but you better not hope that CV thing becomes a 'cane-- cuz if it does, heads are gonna roll in this thread.

 

Just sayin'.

Umm....  Hurricane on the 10th at 11am.  Gonna be close ...

 

[GaWx]

Folks,

 Recent GFS and Euro runs have suggested that NE US ridging will prevail for the first time in a long time ~9/15-22. IF there's a TC underneath then, that would be a period to watch for a potential US hit. It being a neutral negative ENSO phase only enhances chances for a hit climowise. I don't know that it would occur then, but I am still going with a major H hit on the US this season.

[HurricaneJosh]

I'm scurrrreddd!! 

 

Keep it up.  

 

Umm....  Hurricane on the 10th at 11am.  Gonna be close ...

 

 

 

Ah, yes-- those same models that made Gabrielle into a decent 'cane.  Gotcha.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[SnoSki14]

Folks,

Recent GFS and Euro runs have suggested that NE US ridging will prevail for the first time in a long time ~9/15-22. IF there's a TC underneath then, that would be a period to watch for a potential US hit. It being a neutral negative ENSO phase only enhances chances for a hit climowise. I don't know that it would occur then, but I am still going with a major H hit on the US this season.

Caribbean and SW Atlantic activity could really pick up around that time so it'll be interesting to see what happens. The 18z gfs actually had something develop in the SW Atlantic that looked to brush the coast before a trough scooped it out, but that's some 288+ hrs out.

And storms like Sandy also developed in the Caribbean rather than as Cape Verde storms.

[Ed Lizard]

Keep it up.  

 

 

Ah, yes-- those same models that made Gabrielle into a decent 'cane.  Gotcha.

 

 

Its like the Astros. if they can maintain the .300 record of the last 10 games (they are .331 overall) for the rest of the season they will tie the 1962 Mets record 120 losses.  (Trivia, I wasn't born yet, my brother was, my parents lived in Jackson Heights in 1962 and us kids were born in a hospital in Flushing (we moved to the suburbs)) I'd be cheesed if they are 119 and win their last game.

 

Nobody remembers second most futile.

 

It'll be close...

 

Like the AAstros

[Amped]

Y'all can joke all you want, but you better not hope that CV thing becomes a 'cane-- cuz if it does, heads are gonna roll in this thread.

 

Just sayin'.

 

We've come so far to miss it by one day.. that would be futility without a record.   WPAC also appears to be having a near record ACE drought.

[AutoPenalti]

Umm.... Hurricane on the 10th at 11am. Gonna be close ...

Ugh, why must all CV 'canes fish?

[Sunny and Warm]

models are getting even more bullish on 91L.  Now have a hurricane in 48 hours.  This season is full of fail.

 

[Derecho!]

What's most interesting to me now is that they are still doing model runs on 98L yet not mentioning it in the TWO at all.

[AutoPenalti]

models are getting even more bullish on 91L. Now have a hurricane in 48 hours. This season is full of fail.

How? How is this even...

What.

[dan88]

UPDATED...DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY

HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE

SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR

CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE

NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH

CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS

COULD BE NEEDED. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE

CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY MONDAY REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE

FORMATION.

[SnoSki14]

Could actually be a TS as it goes through the Cape Verde islands, which is quite unusual and it's already ramping up.

It might be a hurricane by the 10th if models are correct, which is just close enough to screw with those going for the record.

[yoda]

At least it will be nice to see a fish hurricane... maybe?

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/376531215810973696/photo/1

[HurricaneJosh]

Pathetic season-- one that can't even win at failing.  Basically this season is winning on one metric only:  being as boring as possible.

[David Reimer]

Pathetic season-- one that can't even win at failing.  Basically this season is winning on one metric only:  being as boring as possible.

 

Some might consider that a good thing

Besides, papers will be written on this inactive year. 

[HurricaneJosh]

Some might consider that a good thing

Besides, papers will be written on this inactive year. 

 

I think you might have missed my point-- which is that the season is so lame, it would be awesome for it to break the lameness record (no hurricane forming before 11 Sep).  It looks like it might fall just short of that record-- meaning this season's lameness won't be immortalized like it should be.  So, the season even fails at failing.

 

Re: some folks considering a lame season to be a good thing... Yeah, of course-- but let's not beat that tired horse to death.  We're stormchasers, aren't we?

[EasternUSWX]

Meh, this stupid system is probably going to screw us over.

 

[HailMan06]

The best part of the 2013 season will be Josh's epic rant once (if?) this thing become a sloppicane.

[Derecho!]

Boy, looking at the sat, wonder if 98L can make it to name-waster status....

[HurricaneJosh]

The best part of the 2013 season will be Josh's epic rant once (if?) this thing become a sloppicane.

 

 

Just cuz you said that, I'm gonna stay quiet if that happens-- just to deny you this pleasure.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not quite there at 12z Sept 11:

 

 

GFS thinks this is 988mb:
 

[wxmeddler]

Not quite there at 12z Sept 11:

 

I want to break the record then get a Cat 4 out there so the Global Hawk and the HS3 crew can do some science.

[Ed Lizard]

I think you might have missed my point-- which is that the season is so lame, it would be awesome for it to break the lameness record (no hurricane forming before 11 Sep).  It looks like it might fall just short of that record-- meaning this season's lameness won't be immortalized like it should be.  So, the season even fails at failing.

 

Re: some folks considering a lame season to be a good thing... Yeah, of course-- but let's not beat that tired horse to death.  We're stormchasers, aren't we?

 

That is an interesting thing, for a tornado chaser to wish an especially dead season, but not quite record breaking dead, on a tropical cyclone chaser.

 

I'd like to think it'll be based on whether an eye is visible on conventional IR.  Make 2002 earn keeping the record.

 

 But who knows who'll be working the shifts in 3 days at NHC, and whether they are eager to write the first hurricane advisory of 2013 based on split 3 to 4 Dvoraks and a microwave mid level eye feature?

 

Oh,

DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM

  08/0000 UTC   13.2N     17.7W       T1.0/1.0         91L -- Atlantic 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

That is an interesting thing, for a tornado chaser to wish an especially dead season, but not quite record breaking dead, on a tropical cyclone chaser.

Yeah, I'm sure he doesn't need to be reminded that some people would like a slow tornado season. I think as stormchasers we all understand that our desires are unconventional.

 

I'd like to think it'll be based on whether an eye is visible on conventional IR.  Make 2002 earn keeping the record.

 

 But who knows who'll be working the shifts in 3 days at NHC, and whether they are eager to write the first hurricane advisory of 2013 based on split 3 to 4 Dvoraks and a microwave mid level eye feature?

 

Oh,

DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM

  08/0000 UTC   13.2N     17.7W       T1.0/1.0         91L -- Atlantic

 

Yeah, it'll be really funny-- and slightly maddening-- if this comes to some meg-close call, and the blended value of different satellite indicators at 12Z on 11 Sep yields 62.5 kt or something like that.

[HurricaneJosh]

The 00Z GFS continues with the same crap.  It's amazing that going two weeks out, we're hard-pressed to just find a closed isobar in the tropics (besides that CV junk). Just one big wtf.

 

P.S.  The BoC continues to show general low pressure and disturbed weather-- week after week-- but nothing interesting and coherent ever comes from it.

[GaWx]

The 00Z GFS continues with the same crap.  It's amazing that going two weeks out, we're hard-pressed to just find a closed isobar in the tropics (besides that CV junk). Just one big wtf.

 

P.S.  The BoC continues to show general low pressure and disturbed weather-- week after week-- but nothing interesting and coherent ever comes from it.

 

 Once relatively high surface pressures become more prevalent in the NE US, there is some tendency for more organized low pressure to form below it per climo. This will be something to watch for the last half of the month. Also, there is less chance for recurvature east of the US.

[HurricaneJosh]

 Once relatively high surface pressures become more prevalent in the NE US, there is some tendency for more organized low pressure to form below it per climo. This will be something to watch for the last half of the month. Also, there is less chance for recurvature east of the US.

 

Hope you're right.  

[thewxmann]

I want to break the record then get a Cat 4 out there so the Global Hawk and the HS3 crew can do some science.

 

I'm starting to think the atmosphere knows when we're trying to investigate it so it shuts down. VORTEX2, this Global Hawk thing, the most recent (08-10?) WPAC recon years being somewhat dead...