Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[Floydbuster]

Last three runs of the long range GFS show a system coming from the Southwest Caribbean towards the Yucatan Channel in the longer term. Maybe something. Who knows.

 

[Ed Lizard]

It is one thing mentioning 2 week GFS systems in July, waiting on a 2 week GFS system less than a week from the climatological peak of the season, that is a little bit sad.

 

I'm just glad we may only be 5 or 6 days away from a strong wave in the BoC.  Euro sort of sees it, but not all that excited, and is a bit too far South with the moisture for my liking. 

[bluewave]

So do we get stuck at strong TS next week or can we go minimal hurricane before it heads

toward cooler waters? 

 

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Sigh... they totally should have made 08L Humberto.  Oh well.

[AutoPenalti]

Sigh, a TD that won't last 1 day.

[Amped]

So do we get stuck at strong TS next week or can we go minimal hurricane before it heads

toward cooler waters? 

 

f120.gif

1004mb verbatim isn't going to be a hurricane. GFS gets it down to about 998mb which is pretty close. Still to close to call IMO. We'll probably have to wait until the 11th and see.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Luckily, this wasn't the Quicksilver Pro year. Did you see the guy that went out during Sandy?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiPNAeo-174

 

 

Nice I Know that guy. Its the Skudin bros of legand in LB. You can actually get into and out of some insane surf on a jetski so its not a crazy as it looks.

 

The wave about to come off Africa even if it fishes should send at least some swell to East Coast wave starved surfers.

[thewxmann]

Nice I Know that guy. Its the Skudin bros of legand in LB. You can actually get into and out of some insane surf on a jetski so its not a crazy as it looks.

 

The wave about to come off Africa even if it fishes should send at least some swell to East Coast wave starved surfers.

 

Not anymore... looks like it will recurve early and henceforth run into a wall of shear.

[bluewave]

Nice I Know that guy. Its the Skudin bros of legand in LB. You can actually get into and out of some insane surf on a jetski so its not a crazy as it looks.

 

The wave about to come off Africa even if it fishes should send at least some swell to East Coast wave starved surfers.

 

One of the most impressive sights that I saw coming back into Long Beach after Sandy was the huge boulder that

was pushed off the Roosevelt Jetty.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Attack of The Lemons (and a mandarin and cherry in the 5 day period)

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED INLAND WEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THIS
SYSTEM EARLIER TODAY AND DID NOT FIND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...
AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ANY
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
UNLIKELY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

[Amped]

Missing the good old days where there were too many storms to follow.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtNmJuZ1Iss

[HurricaneJosh]

If that Cape Verde crap becomes a 'cane before next Thu, I'm gonna be mega-pissed!   Just sayin'.

 

Re: the record... Gustav 2002 became a hurricane at 12Z on 11 Sep-- so we need to get to 8 am EDT Wed with no 'cane and 2013 is the new hawtness-- oops, I meant lameness.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If that Cape Verde crap becomes a 'cane before next Thu, I'm gonna be mega-pissed!   Just sayin'.

 

Re: the record... Gustav 2002 became a hurricane at 12Z on 11 Sep-- so we need to get to 8 am EDT Wed with no 'cane and 2013 is the new hawtness-- oops, I meant lameness.

You're not going to like this, but I'm hoping the wave reaches 65 knot in a special advisory at 7:50 am EDT on September 11. Just to make everybody so upset. 

[Ed Lizard]

The Canadian, but beggars can't be choosers.

[EasternUSWX]

4. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC. 

[bluewave]

The Tropical Atlantic is looking better than it has for most of the season. This CV

development may very well be the strongest of the season so far before it

moves into cooler waters. I am thinking at least we'll get 55-60 kt

and around 995 mb. It will be a race to see if it can make minimal

hurricane before reaching cooler SST's. 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

The Tropical Atlantic is looking better than it has for most of the season. This CV

development may very well be the strongest of the season so far before it

moves into cooler waters. I am thinking at least we'll get 55-60 kt

and around 995 mb. It will be a race to see if it can make minimal

hurricane before reaching cooler SST's. 

 

Kill it!

[WxFreak11]

Kill it!

 

Yeah Josh...at this point we should go for the record. All of us hurricane weenies need to feel like something was accomplished this miserable season. After September 11 I am all for some big time home brew

[Jonger]

We might as well set the latest hurricane record, then bring em on after that. We have come this far already, why not.

[Srain]

While there remains some day to day difference in the operational and ensemble guidance, the general pattern suggests lower pressures and generally disturbed weather will remain across the Western Caribbean Sea and the Western Gulf of Mexico. The upper ridge will build further E into the Tennessee Valley as an Eastern trough develops over the Great Lakes Region. A parade of tropical disturbances along the Mexico Pacific Coast supply ample deep tropical moisture into the Desert SW for the foreseeable future. One interesting note is the American and European ensembles remain steadfast in bringing easterly waves NW from the Western Caribbean and then into the Western Gulf. Convection continues to abound across both these areas and the ensembles continue to advertise that trend will continue during the next 10 to 15 days. The longer range ensembles are also suggesting a rather strong tropical disturbance will be near the Yucatan Peninsula during the mid September time frame. While it is too soon to know with any certainty where these disturbances will travel or develop, the general trend suggests a stormy pattern in the Tropical Western Atlantic Basin may well unfold before we enter the late September period.

[Ed Lizard]

This isn't quite as weenie as posting an op 384 GFS run.  But if about half the ensembles are about to hit Florida with a hurricane, well, I'm uploading an image.

 

Nothing personal about Florida.  And I'm glad they have tough building codes.  Interesting trivia, since 2003, TWIA (the insurance pool and policy writer of last resort, mandated by the state of Texas that all insurers in the state must participate in for the coastal counties, since Celia, when insurers started cancelling policies for homeowners in vital regions for America like Corpus Christi, Pasadena and Port Arthur) requires all shoreline homes (usually defined as on the Gulf side of the Intracoasta)l to be built to withstand a 3 second 130 mph gust, inland of that (coastal side of US77 in South Texas through Corpus Christi) 120 mph 3 second gust, and inland of that in TWIA insured counties, 110 mph 3 second gust.  TWIA doesn't do surge damage, which a lot of homeowners found out the hard way in 2008

 

 

But that is only since 2003, many Texans live in older homes, (mine was built in 1998, although we are inland of the TWIA zone) again, Florida is better.  Plus this GEFS forecast is after the Equinox, and exluding the freak October Freeport hurricane, after the Equinox all thoughts turn to football and the twice a decade Houston snow miracles.

 

 

But, anyway, hour 360 also looked good, its reduced resolution models and all, but look at the number of hurricanes forecast by the perturbations...

[David Reimer]

Eh, now you hurricane weenies know how storm chasers felt most of the season... that is until mid-May. (Still, 2013 is still at the record low for tornadoes thus far.)

[Ed Lizard]

Eh, now you hurricane weenies know how storm chasers felt most of the season... that is until mid-May. (Still, 2013 is still at the record low for tornadoes thus far.)

Op 12Z GFS, which, in its own way, is like an ensemble the farther past the truncation one gets, especially since even the best initialization isn't perfect, supports the 0Z GEFS.  Verbatim a near miss on South Florida, but a Caribbean to Florida threat just after the Equinox.  That could be the equivalent of the mid May active period.

 

 

Interesting discussion for another time, compare and contrast a 161 mph wind gust from a tropical cyclone and its damage potential (measured by NWS CRP at the airport w/ Celia, official) with an EF-3 tornado.  Hurricane gusts would tend to be more dimensional, tornado gusts not only shifting direction but even having an upward component, but much longer period of sustained hurricane force winds from a hurricane.

 

Note to mods, if there was something not 2 weeks away, I wouldn't be posting these hypothetical discussion starters.  Please consider before deletion...

 

Not sure I see an interior load wall in that hardware store.  Might not pass building codes now required for windstorms in Corpus Christi.

 

[Ed Lizard]

Except the weak low level trough is so close to the coast, I'd wonder if TD 8L could breed a TD 9L, which would be completely insignificant except for the potential flooding in Tamualipas.

 

GFS, mainly with a mid weak/week wave, doesn't see to much inland rain in Tamps except for a decent area of 1.5 inch plus rains near the Texas frontier inland to even NL and Coahuila, without development of a weak forerunner wave from the residual activity still over water from 8L.  Not big ticket unless its your neighborhood flooding.  Mid week wave gets a narrow area of 5 inch rains along the coast near CRP, BTW.

 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 47 59 73 86 96 104 107 108
V (KT) LAND 20 25 28 32 38 50 62 76 88 98 107 109 110
V (KT) LGE mod 20 22 26 29 32 40 52 66 81 93 96 94 88
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 6 7 9 9 5 7 4 4 8 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -3 -5 0
SHEAR DIR 67 77 88 68 62 42 30 23 31 333 18 227 228
SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.1
POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 139 141 144 143 138 137 133 127 123 118 114
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 135 136 140 139 134 131 126 118 112 109 105
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6
700-500 MB RH 78 78 80 80 79 79 74 74 70 69 68 66 66
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 14 14 16 18 20 23 24 27
850 MB ENV VOR 59 69 77 77 74 88 112 127 132 134 137 141 121
200 MB DIV 8 9 24 23 30 47 55 55 59 65 81 99 123
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 3 8
LAND (KM) -86 10 107 181 247 453 687 913 1128 1279 1379 1415 1408
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.2 17.3 18.9
LONG(DEG W) 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.6 21.7 23.9 26.0 28.0 29.4 30.3 30.5 30.3
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 8 6 5 6 8
HEAT CONTENT 10 2 10 12 10 10 11 14 8 5 3 2 1

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL ASSOCIATED

WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING

SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A

MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE

ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER

THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC.

 

[Srain]

Except the weak low level trough is so close to the coast, I'd wonder if TD 8L could breed a TD 9L, which would be completely insignificant except for the potential flooding in Tamualipas.

 

GFS, mainly with a mid weak/week wave, doesn't see to much inland rain in Tamps except for a decent area of 1.5 inch plus rains near the Texas frontier inland to even NL and Coahuila, without development of a weak forerunner wave from the residual activity still over water from 8L.  Not big ticket unless its your neighborhood flooding.  Mid week wave gets a narrow area of 5 inch rains along the coast near CRP, BTW.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN

GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS.  SOME DEVELOPMENT

OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW

CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

 

[jconsor]

I agree that the NW Carib/sw Gulf should be watched carefully.  The GFS EnKF are rather bullish on the potential for Bay of Campeche development second half of next week with about half of the 20 members developing a tropical cyclone.

 

 

Also, a Kelvin wave is forecast to pass across the same area in the Sep 17-22 which would favor additional development.

 

 

While there remains some day to day difference in the operational and ensemble guidance, the general pattern suggests lower pressures and generally disturbed weather will remain across the Western Caribbean Sea and the Western Gulf of Mexico. The upper ridge will build further E into the Tennessee Valley as an Eastern trough develops over the Great Lakes Region. A parade of tropical disturbances along the Mexico Pacific Coast supply ample deep tropical moisture into the Desert SW for the foreseeable future. One interesting note is the American and European ensembles remain steadfast in bringing easterly waves NW from the Western Caribbean and then into the Western Gulf. Convection continues to abound across both these areas and the ensembles continue to advertise that trend will continue during the next 10 to 15 days. The longer range ensembles are also suggesting a rather strong tropical disturbance will be near the Yucatan Peninsula during the mid September time frame. While it is too soon to know with any certainty where these disturbances will travel or develop, the general trend suggests a stormy pattern in the Tropical Western Atlantic Basin may well unfold before we enter the late September period.

[Ed Lizard]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 47 59 73 86 96 104 107 108
V (KT) LAND 20 25 28 32 38 50 62 76 88 98 107 109 110
V (KT) LGE mod 20 22 26 29 32 40 52 66 81 93 96 94 88
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 6 7 9 9 5 7 4 4 8 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -3 -5 0
SHEAR DIR 67 77 88 68 62 42 30 23 31 333 18 227 228
SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.1
POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 139 141 144 143 138 137 133 127 123 118 114
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 135 136 140 139 134 131 126 118 112 109 105
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6
700-500 MB RH 78 78 80 80 79 79 74 74 70 69 68 66 66
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 14 14 16 18 20 23 24 27
850 MB ENV VOR 59 69 77 77 74 88 112 127 132 134 137 141 121
200 MB DIV 8 9 24 23 30 47 55 55 59 65 81 99 123
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 3 8
LAND (KM) -86 10 107 181 247 453 687 913 1128 1279 1379 1415 1408
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.2 17.3 18.9
LONG(DEG W) 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.6 21.7 23.9 26.0 28.0 29.4 30.3 30.5 30.3
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 8 6 5 6 8
HEAT CONTENT 10 2 10 12 10 10 11 14 8 5 3 2 1

 

You're just trying to drive Josh over the edge, aren't you?

 

Back to above mentioned post-Equinox excitement, the 12Z GEFS again incredibly sanguine about Carla Cradle action, and other than the mid/late week BoC action, which the ensembles show as a fairly weak system, the GEFS are not development happy until almost 2 weeks in the Western Caribbean.  Amazing, actually, that perturbed low resolution ensembles could be in such agreement so far out. About half of the members have a TS (1004 mb) at 15 days, and many are 1000mb or stronger.  One with a major (I'd say an sub 984 mb storm on a coarse resolution ensemble is a major) in the Caribbean in 15 days landfalling in SW Florida, ala Charley, day 16.

 

BTW, the normal models aren't super-enthusiastic with the mid week BoC system, but I like the cut of the fairly high resolution ensembles JConsor posted.  Members 3, 6, 13 and 14 would do wonders for the lawn. 11 a bit to far South for the lawn, but would make iCyclone happy.

 

Oh, a little late, but Happy Jewish New Year.

[Ed Lizard]

28storms.com

 

Another record just broke today: This is now the latest we've gone without a major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere since reliable records for the East Pacific began in 1971.

 

Double posted in EastPac thread...

[HurricaneJosh]

Y'all can joke all you want, but you better not hope that CV thing becomes a 'cane-- cuz if it does, heads are gonna roll in this thread.

 

Just sayin'.