HurricaneFrances04 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Even the NWS in Miami is ready for September 11th. From there Facebook page last night: I can't wait for Hurricane Humberto on September 11th at 5 am, only to be downgraded back to a tropical storm at 11 am. You know it's gonna happen..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 We would really enter the twilight zone this year if we don't eventually get a hurricane without a -AMO and or El Nino pattern present. All the years without a hurricane until later than 2002 or none at all were El Nino and or -AMO. Most years were a combination of the two. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html There is a huge surf contest in Long Beach this weekend. Well I mean there is supposed to be. They have been hosting it during this time of the year for 13 consecutive years and the last 12 featured fantastic surf at least one day during the 7 day waiting period. This year.... Seriously unlucky 13!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Last cat 5 in the ATL basin was 07'. Dean & Felix. Last Cat 4 was Katia and Ophelia in 2011* 06' and 07' were the last consecutive years without a cat 4 in the ATL basin.86-87' before that 92-94' were 3 years without a cat 4. Just some random facts. Felix and Dean reached cat 4 before maxing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Now that we're not looking to the tropics for actual development and storms, time to think of the other purpose of the Atlantic Basin for late Spring through early Autumn, which is providing rain for my lawn when Winters and Spring are unusually dry. 2.51 inch PWs with weak tropical waves and 2 to 5 inches of rain across SETX the next week. Maybe the FIM gets too excited about moisture surges, but the GFS supports the happiness. This probably never closes off, won't mess up breaking the 2002 record, and sure, I was hoping a few days ago 97L/GabbyCorpse would hit Florida. Who didn't, Hebert Box and eveything. But when life gives you lemons... Yes, sugar, ice and water help. Speaking of, I could see this being a lemon next Thursday. Not likely to develp because its 2013, but this time of year, gifts to the temperate climates from the tropics are appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Felix and Dean reached cat 4 before maxing out Yeah, i'm an idiot. Disregard that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Since we have a La Nada or very weak La Nina, how many years have there been where it's waited early-mid September until the first hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 One good thing about this fail of a season to this point is getting to see rainstorm's excitement level increase lmao. Those antiweenie posts have always made me laugh because of the reactions to them. Ironically, Rainstorm got hit twice directly (Isabel and Irene). Isabel hit after a prediction that the east coast was protected lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Neat gravity wave signature from Thunderstorm to SE of Eastern tip of DR. Circulation developing to the north of the Mona passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 There is a huge surf contest in Long Beach this weekend. Well I mean there is supposed to be. They have been hosting it during this time of the year for 13 consecutive years and the last 12 featured fantastic surf at least one day during the 7 day waiting period. This year.... Seriously unlucky 13!!! Yikes. No hurricanes this year, hopefully you guys get enough swell to hold the contest. Here on the west coast we got the ASP Trestles contest in a little over a week. Surf has been flat here too for the most part, hopefully something shows up in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Well its relatively clear via microwave and satellite imagery that 99L is a tropical cyclone of some sort... but since recon won't get there in time, NHC has no choice but to let it slide until the system makes landfall despite having "gale force winds." Perhaps this will be a storm that gets added in the TCR later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Well its relatively clear via microwave and satellite imagery that 99L is a tropical cyclone of some sort... but since recon won't get there in time, NHC has no choice but to let it slide until the system makes landfall despite having "gale force winds." Perhaps this will be a storm that gets added in the TCR later on. Yep, we are just collecting different kinds of fail. Including that the Tampico radar chose a good time to malfunction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 There is a huge surf contest in Long Beach this weekend. Well I mean there is supposed to be. They have been hosting it during this time of the year for 13 consecutive years and the last 12 featured fantastic surf at least one day during the 7 day waiting period. This year.... Seriously unlucky 13!!! Luckily, this wasn't the Quicksilver Pro year. Did you see the guy that went out during Sandy? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiPNAeo-174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I think I'm just going to pretend that everything tropical shown on the CMC is what is actually happening. Maybe I'll make a Wikia page with the CMC tropical season on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 TS Lorena to the left, simple low to the right :S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 99L upped to near 100%. Advisories will be issued in the next couple hours per the TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I think I'm just going to pretend that everything tropical shown on the CMC is what is actually happening. Maybe I'll make a Wikia page with the CMC tropical season on it. Speaking of the CMC and ECUSA surfing- Cowabunga! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 99L upped to near 100%. Advisories will be issued in the next couple hours per the TWO. Even that is a fail ... but cool to see that. Tampico/Altamira sitll reporting N winds, so it's still offshore...Altamira station has rapid fire, has dropped 1.7mb in less than an hour. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ITAMAULI16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Ugh chalk up another one... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOWPRESSURE AREA NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOVEMENTDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED IT TO STAY OVER WATERAND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORYWILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGHCHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELYTO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTSOF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ ANDTAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS TO NEAR TROPICALSTORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN A FEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 And another...possibly. OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TOMOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR TWO...ANDDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THISSYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...60PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Tampico just had a wind shift...reporting SW winds...Altamira bottomed at 1008mb and pressure is now rising...It's inland already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Tampico just had a wind shift...reporting SW winds...Altamira bottomed at 1008mb and pressure is now rising...It's inland already. Just really poorly played by the NHC... first cancelling the 12z recon mission, next dropping the 99L probabilities to 20%. I guess they thought it was going inland earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Only a TD looks like, Humberto is still available... ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_RENUMBER_al992013_al082013.ren Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 000WTNT43 KNHC 061825TCDAT3TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082013130 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2013THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVED MORESLOWLY THAN ORIGINALLY PREDICTED...AND THIS ALLOWED MORE TIME FORTHE SYSTEM TO BECOME ORGANIZED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO.WITH THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING NOTED TODAY...THE SYSTEM ISNOW CLASSIFYABLE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NO ADDITONALSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER IS NOW MOVING INLAND NEARTAMPICO MEXICO. FROM THIS TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN ANDDECAY TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...ANDDISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 36 HR.THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 250/5. A LOW/MID-LEVELRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STEER IT GENERALLYWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINS OVER THE MEXICANSTATES OF VERACRUZ AND TMAMULIPAS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASHFLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 06/1830Z 22.3N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH12H 07/0000Z 22.1N 98.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND24H 07/1200Z 21.9N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 And another...possibly. OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS... A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR TWO...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. I wish they would be more specific than just saying the west coast of Africa, it is a fairly large continent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 The only favorable area for development this year is the BOC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 The only favorable area for development this year is the BOC. And the 12z GFS loves it, at least 3 more teases in it's forecast ... too bad we have had only weaklings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 The only favorable area for development this year is the BOC. Decent 12Z GEFS support for another Tampico depression or even a minimal storm, mid-late next week. Edit Bias adjusted product of 11 members of the 0Z GEFS is sort of happy with the BOC/Western Gulf for precip, giving more support to the idea of a weak disturbance. 6Z FIM shows a almost tropical depression landfalling near CRP swing 2.5 inch plus PWs into all of SETX. Just need to get these waves and weak depressions a little further North. 12Z FIM a bit farther South, keeps the 2.5 inch PW South of MBY, doesn't close off a circulation, but does have 20 to 25 knot winds on the NE side of the wave next Wednesday, which would probably mean small craft warnings from HGX and CRP if it verifies, and I'd say glass quarter full on a lemon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 The only favorable area for development this year is the BOC. Which may make early next week a bit more interesting as the NW Caribbean wave moves generally NW and enters the Western Gulf and tracks a bit longer over water allowing for a spin up prior to moving inland along the Southern/Middle Texas Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Those favorable conditions in the BOC will gradually spread eastward into the Caribbean Sea by Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Luckily, this wasn't the Quicksilver Pro year. Did you see the guy that went out during Sandy? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiPNAeo-174 Thank god they aren't holding the quik pro there this year. That'd be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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