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Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2


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Hope recon is flying the Gulf.  99L looks to be getting its act together pretty quickly...outflow expanding and depending on where the LLC is, could be an anticyclone aloft building over it based on high density sat winds...

ASCAT pass in 1-2 hours will nail most of the circulation, hopefully.

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Tiny swirl apparently at ~22.6N 95W...if that's the case, and it's the dominant LLC, then meh

Yeah, I see it.  That would not be a good place for it if development is desired, LOL.  Seems like some broader turning farther east, but obviously not sure what level that is focused...

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Yeah, I see it.  That would not be a good place for it if development is desired, LOL.  Seems like some broader turning farther east, but obviously not sure what level that is focused...

No way to know, but careful staring at vis and IR, I suspect there is a dominant LLC to the Northeast. Airplane, I think, is taking off anytime now.

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What other things affect the global tropics? I honestly can't think of any, which is why I keep coming back to the Hadley Cell argument.

Yep, I'm in that same boat lol. I don't think the subtropics explain everything but they are the only obvious thing which stick out right now. Also, I didn't put it in that post but the -PDO is likely largely responsible for the unfavorable SSTA configuration we currently have.

 

Negative PDO Correlated with SSTs since the satellite era:

 

pyDHmKW.png

For those familiar with PSD plotting, no you can't correlate the negative phase of an oscillation, however, you can invert the color bar and then slap on the normal color bar as I have done here. So positive correlation here means when PDO is negative, SSTs are positive and vice versa.

(sorry for all the images, btw)

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It's a head scratcher and I imagine it makes you want to pull your hair out...lol.  I agree about the Hadley cell and subsidence...I guess what I meant is that what factors are causing it (Hadley cell issue) and could this have been seen. 

 

See my post above. Likely -PDO forcing contributing to unfavorable SST anomalies in the subtropics.

 

I think that is part of it for sure, but haven't we had SST profiles like this before and still a half decent tropical season? Is the QBO having a say? What about all the rising air in the EPAC. I know it's not extreme, but could sinking air from that be just enough to throw it off? The rather stout AO and higher band of height anomalies circling the globe? Maybe a combo of several factors...

I've heard the QBO mentioned a few times but it's in the westerly phase which is the (slightly) more favorable phase. And you're right, rising air over the EPAC probably isn't helping (it's been above average despite their below average season). It's certainly a combo of multiple different factors. Issue is finding the most relevant ones. Makes for fun discussions though!

 

qbo.png

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The editorial puzzle with the iCyclone Facebook page this year has been:  "Which lame, boring system do we headline today?"

 

We have a dying TD Gaby and some BoC cluster in one basin-- and a lame TD heading for cool waters in the other.

Ray-o-hope for what its worth... the GEFS and the Euro continue to hint the "Carla Cradle" may offer something moving generally NW in about a week or so.

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Me too! I thought I was the only one hoping for record low hurricane activity. I hope we break the September 11th hurricane formation record too.

 

I'm not specifically rooting for record low ACE... I'd like to see *something*...but at this point it's just hilarious with Gabrielle lasting two seconds and the next possible system having less than a day over water...again.

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Me too! I thought I was the only one hoping for record low hurricane activity. I hope we break the September 11th hurricane formation record too.

 

Well, to be clear, I'm hoping for it just so we can break the 11 Sep record-- to commemorate our people's suffering.

 

After that, I want a string of Cat-4 landfalls in chaseable locations.  Thx.

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Well, to be clear, I'm hoping for it just so we can break the 11 Sep record-- to commemorate our people's suffering.

 

After that, I want a string of Cat-4 landfalls in chaseable locations.  Thx.

 

Just to make it more hilarious, this season should be all weak, uninteresting tropical storms...except one category 5 landfalling hurricane in late October.  16/1/1, I'd say.

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Just to make it more hilarious, this season should be all weak, uninteresting tropical storms...except one category 5 landfalling hurricane in late October.  16/1/1, I'd say.

Why so bland? Let's make it 2 Category 5 hurricane landfalls in December:thumbsup:

 

Not that makes too much meteorological sense, but hey, neither has this season.

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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
555 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO PROVIDE AN UPDATE ON SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GABRIELLE...LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

UPDATED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO AND DID NOT FIND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND
TAMAULIPAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SOME DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO DRY
AIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY
UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$
FORECASTER PASCH/BRENNAN

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