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September weather discussion


Ginx snewx

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pretty chilly air coming late this week. so much for the euro always being too cold in the extended. NAM 850s are now down to ~0C at 850 at ORH 12z friday. 2-m temps are mid 60s for most of SNE...and even has what i think is the first 32F contour i've seen (over NYS) thursday night. 

 

GFS has a nice sub 32F temps interior of NY and NNE too.

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GFS has a nice sub 32F temps interior of NY and NNE too.

yeah i think it had it yesterday too. pretty neat. it's funny that an area like that could get a solid frost if not a solid freeze...and yet BOS/Cape/hills etc in SNE most likely wait another 45+ days...it's not like it's *that* far away 

 

It's like going to NH whites for Columbus Day and having snow on the ground (last year). 

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yeah i think it had it yesterday too. pretty neat. it's funny that an area like that could get a solid frost if not a solid freeze...and yet BOS/Cape/hills etc in SNE most likely wait another 45+ days...it's not like it's *that* far away 

 

It's like going to NH whites for Columbus Day and having snow on the ground (last year). 

 

Now we can add Memorial Day to the snowy list, lol.

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Pretty well modeled for 10+ days out when I just outlined the chance of much cooler air finally trying to come into the nrn tier.

 

Let me know 10+ days out when I can start measuring snow on the picnic tables at 4kft ;)

 

I love this time of year so much... the peaks start to get dusted in the next 6 weeks well before any of us can think of snow in our backyards.

 

Last year's first snow came on October 8th, and it was awesome sitting there with a bunch of co-workers and having a big cheer go up as soon as the first Gondola cabins started dropping out of the fog with snow on them.  You couldn't really tell if it snowed due to the low clouds but sure enough, out of the mist, white coated cabins started coming down the line and the high-fives started flying. 

 

IMG_8001_edited-1.jpg

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Let me know 10+ days out when I can start measuring snow on the picnic tables at 4kft ;)

 

I love this time of year so much... the peaks start to get dusted in the next 6 weeks well before any of us can think of snow in our backyards.

 

Last year's first snow came on October 8th, and it was awesome sitting there with a bunch of co-workers and having a big cheer go up as soon as the first Gondola cabins started dropping out of the fog with snow on them.  You couldn't really tell if it snowed due to the low clouds but sure enough, out of the mist, white coated cabins started coming down the line and the high-fives started flying. 

 

IMG_8001_edited-1.jpg

What an awesome picture

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There's pretty good agreement with the GFS ensembles that this will happen.

 

 

Yeah... and, the GGEM, which is notoriously obtuse to see any ridging in eastern N/A is over-coming it's own beady-eyed neurotic trough/cold heights bias by raising heights and bringing a two day period of heat after D7, and the NAVGEM is threatening 21C, 850mb air... and now the Euro is raising heights; although it has another phantom trough depth fighting it D9..  Again, perhaps correct that something will be there but it is deepening the trough inexplicably between D7 and 10.  It takes an innocuous "dent" of a S/W from upper Manatoba, and spontaneously cores out about a -5SD trough in eastern Canada out of the thing.   

 

Do folks remember that sub 0C, 850mb air mass and hints of upslope snow when tomorrow as D8 in the Euro earlier last week ?     It's so utterly obvious that the Euro does this.  

 

Point is, there is enough signal out there to hint that it may not be cooler than normal through mid month.    But that's about all I'll say for now.  

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Yeah... and, the GGEM, which is notoriously obtuse to see any ridging in eastern N/A is over-coming it's own beady-eyed neurotic trough/cold heights bias by raising heights and bringing a two day period of heat after D7, and the NAVGEM is threatening 21C, 850mb air... and now the Euro is raising heights; although it has another phantom trough depth fighting it D9.. Again, perhaps correct that something will be there but it is deepening the trough inexplicably between D7 and 10. It takes an innocuous "dent" of a S/W from upper Manatoba, and spontaneously cores out about a -5SD trough in eastern Canada out of the thing.

Do folks remember that sub 0C, 850mb air mass and hints of upslope snow when tomorrow as D8 in the Euro earlier last week ? It's so utterly obvious that the Euro does this.

Point is, there is enough signal out there to hint that it may not be cooler than normal through mid month. But that's about all I'll say for now.

Tip I am not being a wad here but the Euro has been stellar. You poo pooed again this week's trough coming up. You poo pooed the last one and the pattern change. Locally not globally the Euro and especially the Ens have been spot on inho
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well actually you were speaking of your byard as a lot of CT is about or above for the month, SWCT being an exception

yeah, we've missed out here for sure.  Had a 2am burst of rain last night, but the weekend was mostly dry.   Looks like its dry for all next 7-8 days outside of a scattered shower here or there.

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Tip I am not being a wad here but the Euro has been stellar. You poo pooed again this week's trough coming up. You poo pooed the last one and the pattern change. Locally not globally the Euro and especially the Ens have been spot on inho

 

What?!   

 

you don't remember it's large plume of 0C, 850mb air it had for tomorrow, last week, then ?   

 

You haven't been reading very clearly, and I think also your memory is selective here.    

 

Firstly, I have maintained all along that it's been correct with the trough timing;  it has been way too amp in the extended.   Secondly, last week into this week correcting that cold look to something more seasonal is yet another that exemplifies that, which has been going on for some time.   

 

It's not even debatable. 

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What?!   

 

you don't remember it's large plume of 0C, 850mb air it had for tomorrow, last week, then ?   

 

You haven't been reading very clearly, and I think also your memory is selective here.    

 

Firstly, I have maintained all along that it's been correct with the trough timing;  it has been way too amp in the extended.   Secondly, last week into this week correcting that cold look to something more seasonal is yet another that exemplifies that, which has been going on for some time.   

 

It's not even debatable. 

it didn't have upslope snow. we were just joking about that.

 

no it had one run where it dropped the 0C 850 line to Worcester for thursday / friday. it now has those areas around 4C...with 2C air into S VT and NH but...interestingly enough...here's today's ukmet and nam:

 

in my opinion, it will end up more right than wrong overall. it doesn't have a systemic bias for this issue.

 

post-218-0-41995400-1378237711_thumb.png

 

post-218-0-32773900-1378237731_thumb.png

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it didn't have upslope snow. we were just joking about that.

no it had one run where it dropped the 0C 850 line to Worcester for thursday / friday. it now has those areas around 4C...with 2C air into S VT and NH but...interestingly enough...here's today's ukmet and nam:

in my opinion, it will end up more right than wrong overall. it doesn't have a systemic bias for this issue.

nam.png

ukmet.png

no its my selective reading really
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