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September weather discussion


Ginx snewx

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tell the Japanese that, using animals to predict earthquakes, known fact seagulls head inland ahead of super deep storms, no wild animals died in the Tsunamis. FROM Science How stuff works

It's highly unlikely animals can predict weather in an ESP-sort of way, but they very well may be able to sense environmental signals that humans miss. Reaction is another key component: A human might sense a drop in barometric pressure, for example, but not feel compelled by that sensation to seek shelter before a storm hits,

Yup exactly Ginx. Thanks for posting that...it's a Reaction to something. It isn't just that they *know* something is coming...they are reacting to something. A lot of people seem to have this romantic idea that a higher power is telling the animals to leave like ESP. No, they have just evolved to know when the pressure drops sharply, get the heck away. Same with the colors on a woolly caterpillar or whatever they are...those things obviously have no idea what winter will be like, but they are probably reacting to some condition back in the spring.
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BTW, Chris...have you guys ever seen and incorporated the euro ensembles into the forecast? I thought I remember Ekster saying they can only really see it from a private source, but I could be wrong. It also might come out too late anyways for the 4-5am and pm AFDs.  Sucks Allan's site doesn't have them for free, but I understand he needs to make money.

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All we heard was they were mild but back and forth with frequent fropas. Not HHH wx with deep tropical flow. They busted

 

Well all models sort of busted. As soon as the coastal low went east on the models, the warmer air flooded in. Still, ensembles even on the 25th had SW flow with 564 thicknesses. That equals warmth.

 

Enjoy the warm air.

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There are some signs that post mid month might cool off, but I wouldn't lock that. The MJO wants to go near the circle of death, but also towards P7-8. Perhaps it's enough to poke ridging into the GOA? I'm not certain, but for now..the pattern is fairly mild with transient cool shots.

 

Please note this is not a bad thing or foreshadows winter. K thanks.

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There are some signs that post mid month might cool off, but I wouldn't lock that. The MJO wants to go near the circle of death, but also towards P7-8. Perhaps it's enough to poke ridging into the GOA? I'm not certain, but for now..the pattern is fairly mild with transient cool shots.

 

Please note this is not a bad thing or foreshadows winter. K thanks.

Is that directed at maple weenie?

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BTW, Chris...have you guys ever seen and incorporated the euro ensembles into the forecast? I thought I remember Ekster saying they can only really see it from a private source, but I could be wrong. It also might come out too late anyways for the 4-5am and pm AFDs.  Sucks Allan's site doesn't have them for free, but I understand he needs to make money.

 

Correct. For a time in Central Region we had a password protected site where we could view the ECMWF EPS, but I'm not sure if that's gone away now. At GYX we have access to a private site so individual forecasters can look at the EPS as well.

 

I'd have to double check, but I believe we are also ingesting EPS weighted ECMWF MOS directly into our forecast system. So at least we have that available. We do not have a way of seeing any other EPS forecasts in our system though. It would be awesome to play around with that in AWIPS, but that's a dream for another day.

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