September weather discussion

[snowman21]

Here are the streaks of highs in the teens (or less) of a week or longer:

 

ID     STATION        DAYS DATE
-------------------------------------------
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW    15  01/20/1961-02/03
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW    10  02/10/1979-02/19
STRC3  STORRS          10  02/10/1979-02/19
NWPC3  SHEPAUG DAM     10  02/10/1979-02/19
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW     9  01/18/2005-01/26
DANC3  DANBURY          9  02/10/1979-02/18
FVLC3  FALLS VILLAGE    9  02/10/1979-02/18
STRC3  STORRS           8  01/20/1961-01/27
STRC3  STORRS           8  01/11/1893-01/18
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW     7  12/19/1989-12/25
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW     7  01/09/1981-01/15
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW     7  01/31/1980-02/06
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW     7  12/17/1945-12/23
MLTC3  MIDDLETOWN 4 W   7  12/30/1917-01/05
BDL    BDL              7  12/29/1917-01/04
FVLC3  FALLS VILLAGE    7  12/29/1917-01/04
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW     7  01/07/1886-01/13

[CoastalWx]

Those storms that developed blocks far enough north like Feb '78 (although really not that cold at all with many days above 32 at BOS) and Jan 2005 do help. However some years you can have the block retro and flood Canada with warmth, or allow warmer +PNA air to flood in. After the Blizzard this year, the pattern went back to lower heights near AK despite some ridging to our northeast.

 

We actually warmed significantly following the Feb 2003 storm only to cool off late month as the EPO reloaded.

[forkyfork]

it didn't break freezing until 6 days after the 05 blizzard in boston

[powderfreak]

Those storms that developed blocks far enough north like Feb '78 (although really not that cold at all with many days above 32 at BOS) and Jan 2005 do help. However some years you can have the block retro and flood Canada with warmth, or allow warmer +PNA air to flood in. After the Blizzard this year, the pattern went back to lower heights near AK despite some ridging to our northeast.

 

We actually warmed significantly following the Feb 2003 storm only to cool off late month as the EPO reloaded.

 

Following January 12, 2011 was cold and wintery for a solid period (pretty much the rest of the month).  That was a powdery snow that stayed powder for a long time.  But it probably helped that it was a month prior to what we are comparing for the Feb 8, 2013 storm.

 

I'm sure if Will wasn't getting married he might chime in.  That's today right?

[snowman21]

Those storms that developed blocks far enough north like Feb '78 (although really not that cold at all with many days above 32 at BOS) and Jan 2005 do help. However some years you can have the block retro and flood Canada with warmth, or allow warmer +PNA air to flood in. After the Blizzard this year, the pattern went back to lower heights near AK despite some ridging to our northeast.

 

We actually warmed significantly following the Feb 2003 storm only to cool off late month as the EPO reloaded.

PDII was about as bad as I've seen a melt off. We had 22 inches in that storm and it was gone three days later.

[CoastalWx]

Following January 12, 2011 was cold and wintery for a solid period (pretty much the rest of the month).  That was a powdery snow that stayed powder for a long time.  But it probably helped that it was a month prior to what we are comparing for the Feb 8, 2013 storm.

 

I'm sure if Will wasn't getting married he might chime in.  That's today right?

 

The Jan 2011 pattern was a much more favorable month than Feb 2013. We've had plenty of cold February's and in fact, my area is probably going to do best with no marine taint in Feb. You can see that there is a reason why BOS and PVD were below normal for February, but look near AK. Huge difference here.

 

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Sunny day going cloudy

[powderfreak]

Man that January 2011 was just an awesome winter month...in fact that whole winter from like Dec 20-early March was awesome.

[Ginx snewx]

78 was a bore after the blizzard, weeks of HP, last year after Feb blizz was warmer but really active culminating in retro bomb. Looking back geek wise being active was more fun, outside winter activities 78 was best.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Sunny day going cloudy

Started foggy here but now Bluebird day. Perfect fall day!

[nzucker]

The Jan 2011 pattern was a much more favorable month than Feb 2013. We've had plenty of cold February's and in fact, my area is probably going to do best with no marine taint in Feb. You can see that there is a reason why BOS and PVD were below normal for February, but look near AK. Huge difference here.

compday.Jan2011.gif

The NAO block was more west based in 2011 too which helped keep the torches away.

compday.Feb2013.gif

[nzucker]

PDII was about as bad as I've seen a melt off. We had 22 inches in that storm and it was gone three days later.

February 2006 was horrible too. That fluff vaporized as the +PNA dissolved.

[powderfreak]

78 was a bore after the blizzard, weeks of HP, last year after Feb blizz was warmer but really active culminating in retro bomb. Looking back geek wise being active was more fun, outside winter activities 78 was best.

 

I agree with you... as I usually say, I'll take a warmer but active pattern even if it leads to a lot of marginal events with mixed p-types, over weeks of dry, cold, HP.  My love of doing outdoor winter activites does not over-rule my love for active weather during the winter...even if they are just small 1-2" events followed by a crust or sloppy stuff.  I like watching the radar and nuances of each event.

[ORH_wxman]

March '93 had epic cold right behind it...though the longevity was compromised by the fact that it was mid-March already. But that was impressive behind that bomb.

 

 

'78 didn't have big cold behind it, but it didn't torch either. It stayed seasonable...wasn't warm enough to melt a lot of the snowpack.

[Damage In Tolland]

2011-12 was the best..Just feet and feet of deep snow OTG for weeks and weeks..months and months

[ORH_wxman]

2011-12 was the best..Just feet and feet of deep snow OTG for weeks and weeks..months and months

 

 

Lol...that winter was horrific. October 2011 snowbomb and then garbage.

 

 

You're thinking of 2010-2011

[Ginx snewx]

2011-12 was the best..Just feet and feet of deep snow OTG for weeks and weeks..months and months

it was real and it was spectacular.

[powderfreak]

February 2006 was horrible too. That fluff vaporized as the +PNA dissolved.

 

That one was probably the worst... I didn't experience it, but seeing the pics afterwards that storm essentially looked like mid-January lake effect or upslope snow.  Warm temps will take care of that snow in a blink of an eye... heck even not warm temps will make that snow disappear.  Just need sunshine.

[powderfreak]

it was real and it was spectacular.

 

lol... 2010-2011, not 2011-2012.

[CoastalWx]

2011-12 was the best..Just feet and feet of deep snow OTG for weeks and weeks..months and months

 

 

    

[Typhoon Tip]

Well get ready for a real meh couple of weeks to start October. Yeah there will be a cool shot, but the overall 1st half of the month seems to want to avg a little above. I'm so sick and tired of the hype brought about by the media including OCMs. It's been out of control over the last 5 years or so. It's refreshing not to hear about some hyped up event blamed on man. The disappointment really manifests itself by some OCMs tweeting absurd model solutions.

 

You probably wouldn't like the recently released report by the U.N.'s International Panel on Climate Change.   An international team of some 30 or 50 scientists co-spear-headed what they call the most sophisticated, and detailed study on the issue of GW, to date.

 

For the general reader:  

 

The gist of their findings is that they are 95% (how this number is derived, I have no idea, but they probably (pun intended) have some statistical formulae) certain that Human activities are MORE than 50% responsible for the acceleration of global warming that has taken place over the last 100 years (essentially, since the Industrial revolution is what I am inferring).  

 

Personally ... I do not have a problem acquiescing to the notion that human consumption of natural resources known to exhausted green-house gases is at least in part culpable for that acceleration.  I tend to look at the issue of AGW from behind the lens of a simple question.   It took the Earth's biota three billion years to create all these fossilized fuel sources. We (meaning Human kind) come along and threaten to re-convert all that trillions upon trillions upon trillions of tonnage back into gaseous form in such a brief period of time ... far exceeding nature's capacity to re-absorb:  

 

Does that seem like it can happen without consequence ? 

 

Those that answer yes, and then spin out mealy-mouthed reasoning (which sorry, it comes across that way in the debate) are clearly operating with an agenda, and a dangerous one at that.    

 

The problem is, yeah ... we do not know all the answers.  Or at least, that is the only thing the naysayers have that is true:  We are, as a body of wisdom/science on the matter, less than certain how a rapidly warming planet will absolutely be a detriment to our's, and other specie's, survival.   Intuitively,  ... it is very easy to assume it would be very bad, to put it mildly.  

 

Meanwhile, on the other side of the scientific aisle. the Biologist et al are claiming that we are, in fact, currently living through a mass-extinction event.  It is important to note that mass-extinctions across geological epochs, do not occur overnight.  They take place over hundreds, even thousands of years.  Such that when peering back across an eon or two, they seem by comparison to have taken place instantaneously.   A few thousand years -vs a billion ?   Yes, that makes sense.  Point being, perhaps we are already seeing a connection between climate change and the health of Earth's overall biota ?  

 

It certainly is a paramount question to ask.  We are, despite our enormous separation from other species on this planet (as far as our ability to manipulate our environments and so forth), still inextricably linked and dependent upon the survival and health of all members of the Earth's biota.  Out of sight, out of mind, but that intangible yet immutable truth is often taken for granted as we toil through our days in our various conceits.  Take out the forests and the oceanic algae, and the Earth's atmospheric oxygen plummets.  Particularly, this is true for the oceans.  The phytoplankton produces ~ 70 % of all atmospheric oxygen.  If for some reason a rapidly warming ocean kills off sensitive species, removing humans from the future equation becomes academically known as adios muchachos!  

 

It is also well within the realm of various nightmarish possibilities that there are thresholds unknown.  Such as, just suppose a 2 C more warning triggers a die-off of acutely necessary species in that equation, as perhaps simply unknown to current science.  The next thing you know, we have contributed to asphyxiating the planet for all mammalian species; akin to a silent holocaust.  Not a big fiery object from the sky.  Not a giant super volcano.  No super pandemic.  No alien invasion.  None of those terrors depicted by Hollywood.  People world over just go to sleep and never wake up.  One could argue that small enclaves of peoples might survive such a horror, because they may have access to oxygen stows.  But even they would eventually succumb and represent the last footprint of man, because obviously reproduction becomes non-sustainable.     

 

There may come a time ...a time, perhaps before the end of our own lives, when as species we are burdened with a most unsavory realization:  Every person living under the Industrial canopy on this planet must face an imperative:    Change your life-style, profoundly, or die. 

 

 

      

[CoastalWx]

You probably wouldn't like the recently released report by the U.N.'s International Panel on Climate Change.   An international team of some 30 or 50 scientists co-spear-headed what they call the most sophisticated, and detailed study on the issue of GW, to date.

 

The gist of their findings is that they are 95% (how this number is derived, I have no idea, but they probably (pun intended) have some statistical formulae) that Human activities are MORE than 50% responsible for the acceleration of global warming that has taken place over the last 100 years (essentially, since the Industrial revolution is what I am inferring.  

 

I think you are misunderstanding what I'm saying. It's not an issue of us warming, it's the extreme hype brought on by the media...many of them who have no clue about the science.

[powderfreak]

For those of you that like to make fun of "fake snow" and high ratios, I think the BTV climate records for the first half of January 2010 will make you chuckle...

 

46.7" in 13 days, on 1.34" liquid... but note the snowpack data. 

 

The temp never goes above freezing (heck, highs are mostly upper teens to mid-20s), and yet 46.7" of snowfall was recorded at the WFO with a snow depth of 26", falling to 13" by the end of the period.  So almost 4 feet of snowfall, no above freezing temperatures, and a snow depth just over a foot by the end. 

 

 

 

 

 

BTV's manual precipitation and snow can...

 

 

 

[powderfreak]

I think you are misunderstanding what I'm saying. It's not an issue of us warming, it's the extreme hype brought on by the media...many of them who have no clue about the science.

 

Agreed.  The hype and sensationalism is what drives me nuts.  Every single storm is now hyped to be man's own demise, lol.

[OceanStWx]

BTV's manual precipitation and snow can...

 

 

Such a pain to trudge out to those rain gauges on a midnight. Doesn't matter how hard you try, you always end up with snow in your boots.

[educate]

'78 was the year I was training for the Marathon. I remember looking out the window as the blizzard was winding down and thinking that the rest of my training schedule was going to be shot to #&%^$ because of the awful road conditions and any more snow on top of this would make it nearly impossible(I actually remember that they were calling for more snow 3 days after the blizzard ended but it never happened). As it turned out, each day I went out to run was clear and nicely cool and this went on for at least 3 weeks. Spectacular weather for distance running.

 

 

March '93 had epic cold right behind it...though the longevity was compromised by the fact that it was mid-March already. But that was impressive behind that bomb.

 

 

'78 didn't have big cold behind it, but it didn't torch either. It stayed seasonable...wasn't warm enough to melt a lot of the snowpack.

[OceanStWx]

I think you are misunderstanding what I'm saying. It's not an issue of us warming, it's the extreme hype brought on by the media...many of them who have no clue about the science.

 

It's also a handy go to excuse for disasters, rather than admit it was poor infrastructure or coastal development.

[weathafella]

Here are the streaks of highs in the teens (or less) of a week or longer: 

ID     STATION        DAYS DATE
-------------------------------------------
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW    15  01/20/1961-02/03
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW    10  02/10/1979-02/19
STRC3  STORRS          10  02/10/1979-02/19
NWPC3  SHEPAUG DAM     10  02/10/1979-02/19
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW     9  01/18/2005-01/26
DANC3  DANBURY          9  02/10/1979-02/18
FVLC3  FALLS VILLAGE    9  02/10/1979-02/18
STRC3  STORRS           8  01/20/1961-01/27
STRC3  STORRS           8  01/11/1893-01/18
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW     7  12/19/1989-12/25
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW     7  01/09/1981-01/15
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW     7  01/31/1980-02/06
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW     7  12/17/1945-12/23
MLTC3  MIDDLETOWN 4 W   7  12/30/1917-01/05
BDL    BDL              7  12/29/1917-01/04
FVLC3  FALLS VILLAGE    7  12/29/1917-01/04
NFKC3  NORFOLK 2 SW     7  01/07/1886-01/13

The year I cited is on top of the list. I'm fortunate to have gone through that as a 14 year old.

[Ginx snewx]

So all the heat was absorbed by the oceans, the earth takes care of itself it brushes us off like a mosquito.

[weathafella]

So all the heat was absorbed by the oceans, the earth takes care of itself it brushes us off like a mosquito.

OT but I'm convinced that we're taking this far too lightly. The cycle of temperatures in the last 50 years globally is alarming to me.

Gorgeous and pleasantly warm day today.