CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 yeah i think some rain is a fair call...gfs looks like 1-1.5" over the Cape - i don't know...i feel like that's a bit much. i suppose the tropical feed into this airmass plus the warm processes going on in that conveyor belt could yield higher amounts. Then there is the deck destroyer for MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Congrats on the TS conditions out east while inland the boredom rolls on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 nice looking field, is that field turf, or natural grass? field turf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Classic GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Classic GFS run. Nice snow storm for Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Nice snow storm for Minnesota. Big time. We'll see if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 field turf. nice. that stuff is great, it always looks good and easy to maintain. and you parents don't have to worry about the kids coming home filthy from a day on the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 GGEM is pretty close in / deep with monday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 the ggem blowing up just about every convective complex over the warmer oceans into a deep cyclone is pretty clearly a systematic bias in the model...they (environment canada) have to know that...i wonder if they'll fix it anytime soon. it's clearly not random error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 the ggem blowing up just about every convective complex over the warmer oceans into a deep cyclone is pretty clearly a systematic bias in the model...they (environment canada) have to know that...i wonder if they'll fix it anytime soon. it's clearly not random error Well took about 15 years for NCEP to correct the well known SE/cold bias of the GFS (I'm not sure they have totally eradicated it either in winter storms)...so I wouldn't expect a fast fix from GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 the ggem blowing up just about every convective complex over the warmer oceans into a deep cyclone is pretty clearly a systematic bias in the model...they (environment canada) have to know that...i wonder if they'll fix it anytime soon. it's clearly not random error Even if the track is fair, it gets skewed by the fact that its at least 20mb too deep. It has donw this for every storm this year up until the last minute. Gabrielle is the most recent example. It had her I think in the 980s when it never got below 1008mb when it re developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Calm down ranger....lots only roctober. Will your skin be damaged from wearing shorts? I'm throwing caution to the wind. I'm going all kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 The 12z GEFS ensemble mean touches Cape Cod with the 0.5"+ mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 12z ECMWF is pretty tucked into the coast. Hard to tell from these maps, almost looks like it forms a cut off low off NC which helps swing the sytem towards eastern MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Looks like there may be just enough ridging that develops ahead of this developing low to bring it in closer to the coast. Interesting scenario to watch unfold. Pretty stout -NAO block preventing this thing from escaping E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Harbinger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 The low on the 12z ECMWF is stalled out from hours 48-72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 It moves NE to Atlantic Canada after hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Does not look all that windy on the W side unless this thing can wrap itself up and even than it would be confined towards the center of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Big time. We'll see if that happens. What's interesting is that cold insert into the upper MW and GL is not new. 3 days ago ... when that was still out around 240 or 252 hours, the GFS was drilling the season's first LE grauple/cold rain/wet snow showers for Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Does not look all that windy on the W side unless this thing can wrap itself up and even than it would be confined towards the center of the low.Looks like a small area of 40knts+ near the Cape at the 850mb level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 I suspect the trend is paramount with this Euro run bumping West like that. GGEM and GFS have been pretty steadfast for 3 cycles; regardless of the popularity there is in bashing these models, their consistency and then having the Euro come back west at all might just be a flag here. I have no issue with eastern zones being clipped by an ocean storm early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 I suspect the trend is paramount with this Euro run bumping West like that. GGEM and GFS have been pretty steadfast for 3 cycles; regardless of the popularity there is in bashing these models, their consistency and then having the Euro come back west at all might just be a flag here. I have no issue with eastern zones being clipped by an ocean storm early next week. Agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 Wife just sent me this from Copper Mountain Co At 9712 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Wife just sent me this from Copper Mountain Co At 9712 feetI'm always amazed at how early it snows out there...then I think they are almost 4,000ft higher than MWN, lol.Just imagine living at like 700mb level in the atmosphere...looking at the H7 low and it's really the surface pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 I'm always amazed at how early it snows out there...then I think they are almost 4,000ft higher than MWN, lol. Just imagine living at like 700mb level in the atmosphere...looking at the H7 low and it's really the surface pressure. Some pretty nice obs out of Lander and Riverton WY last night. Both were under 1sm for a while and around 32f. I think there both around 5500ft. Heres a nice one from KLND... 27 Sep 12:35 am MDT 32 32 100 CALM 0.25 +SN FG VV007 29.96 24.394 0.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 I'm always amazed at how early it snows out there...then I think they are almost 4,000ft higher than MWN, lol. Just imagine living at like 700mb level in the atmosphere...looking at the H7 low and it's really the surface pressure. I will some day i hope, shes in Loveland now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 My secret plan was to expose her to the Rockies in hopes she fell in love, well last text, "its so beautiful out here, I really think I could live here no problem", boooyah, some day soon, winter in the Rockies, summer in SRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Looks like a small area of 40knts+ near the Cape at the 850mb level.I expect Tolland to lose power.btw...if those are pay images don't post them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 My secret plan was to expose her to the Rockies in hopes she fell in love, well last text, "its so beautiful out here, I really think I could live here no problem", boooyah, some day soon, winter in the Rockies, summer in SRIMy wife lived in Colo for a little while. I think she would not mind that move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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