CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 cloud deck was well handled by the nam and some of its offspring. Even the GFS had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 that's the warmest euro run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 that's the warmest euro run yet Tolland tickling 80? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 +16 at h85 with good w flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 +16 at h85 with good w flow Some spots in NE will hit 80F+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 So was Feb 1978... Dec 1992 didn't even register on the NESIS scale, yet it was one of the most disruptive storms for interior SNE elevations...and massive coastal flooding. NESIS is just one measure. It says nothing about how disruptive the storm was in SNE....it only judges the storm as a whole for the Northeast. stop posting facts! it ruins his argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Euro has much of SE MA, RI, S CT in the 18-20C range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Even the GFS had it. cool. i hadn't looked region-wide with the GFS...its RH profiles were lower out here so i figured it probably didn't have the cloud cover across the region. the nam had a really thick layer of deep rh out here so i started looking at it closer yesterday and noticed it was basically clouding in the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 Some spots in NE will hit 80F+. Pretty much but really on schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 cool. i hadn't looked region-wide with the GFS...its RH profiles were lower out here so i figured it probably didn't have the cloud cover across the region. the nam had a really thick layer of deep rh out here so i started looking at it closer yesterday and noticed it was basically clouding in the entire region. Yeah it was just a moist layer near 4000ft...enough for me to put it in the TAF anyways...although it's VFR. GFS and NAM both moist near and above 950 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 I like the name of this new TC in the WPAC. "Tropical Storm 20W (Wutip) Warning #04..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 Looks like we cool down after the mild up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Eh, still a WP pattern so I'm not sold on any real cooldown other than transient stuff. Perhaps after mid month we see a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 The euro ensembles def start looking cooler toward the 10th...esp over the N plains. They try and retro the AK low anomalies a bit in the D12-15 range, but that is far out there. They are def on board with the warmth next week. Should be pretty nice weather as a few of the days have good subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 Pos PNA NEG NAO in the LR cards, looks to me like Oct 16- 20th is next real storm period, until then pretty dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Pretty much but really on schedule Yeah, this is nothing special either. Just typical of the seasonal transition. I am liking the warmer days since I don't have to deal with 12 u12 girls complaining about how cold it is at practice or games. Can't wait to play on these beauties next weekend. New Forekicks facility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 Yeah, this is nothing special either. Just typical of the seasonal transition. I am liking the warmer days since I don't have to deal with 12 u12 girls complaining about how cold it is at practice or games. Can't wait to play on these beauties next weekend. New Forekicks facility. FK3fields1.jpg nice but those lines are crazy confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 The euro ensembles def start looking cooler toward the 10th...esp over the N plains. They try and retro the AK low anomalies a bit in the D12-15 range, but that is far out there. They are def on board with the warmth next week. Should be pretty nice weather as a few of the days have good subsidence. GEFS has us looking even cooler around mid-October. Euro seems to put us in a more seasonable state temperature wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 the gfes lagged the euro ens mean in showing next week's warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 nice but those lines are crazy confusing I don't think they could've put any more lines in there. There's like 10 different field configuration in that one field...but does look like a really sweet facility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 the gfes lagged the euro ens mean in showing next week's warmth They (GEFS) were horrible for early October 10-14 days out. They were showing cold. The more zonal flow the Euro ensembles showed definitely won that battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 They (GEFS) were horrible for early October 10-14 days out. They were showing cold. The more zonal flow the Euro ensembles showed definitely won that battle. i don't care about not having access to them in the summer...but in the fall/winter/spring it sucks. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 They (GEFS) were horrible for early October 10-14 days out. They were showing cold. The more zonal flow the Euro ensembles showed definitely won that battle. reforecast is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 So was Feb 1978... Dec 1992 didn't even register on the NESIS scale, yet it was one of the most disruptive storms for interior SNE elevations...and massive coastal flooding. NESIS is just one measure. It says nothing about how disruptive the storm was in SNE....it only judges the storm as a whole for the Northeast. good point. what about other storms that were not snow, like the ice storms 1996 and 2010 (i probably have the years wrong). those storms impacted a good portion of the region, with some areas being without power for up to 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Yeah, this is nothing special either. Just typical of the seasonal transition. I am liking the warmer days since I don't have to deal with 12 u12 girls complaining about how cold it is at practice or games. Can't wait to play on these beauties next weekend. New Forekicks facility. FK3fields1.jpg nice looking field, is that field turf, or natural grass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 BOX likes the mild up WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND... STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDWEEK. A FEW OF THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 80S. DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PUSH TEMPS THAT WARM HOWEVER DO BELIEVE THE MID 70S IS MOST PROBABLE. ALL DEPENDS ON A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE...IF IT WILL STRENGTHEN IT MAY SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH OR NOT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 I like the name of this new TC in the WPAC. "Tropical Storm 20W (Wutip) Warning #04..." Weather Underground Tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 gfs dumps quite a bit of rain out here...even a decent amount up into BOS. regardless of track of the surface low, questionable as to whether there could be that much precip. definitely a good theta-e push rotating west and north around the system, so there is that. but looks like a small pocket of 5h vorticity enhances the mid-level wind fields and creates a very small (coverage wise) 8h-7h jet that points right into SE SNE. could be legit or could be "feedback" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 gfs dumps quite a bit of rain out here...even a decent amount up into BOS. regardless of track of the surface low, questionable as to whether there could be that much precip. definitely a good theta-e push rotating west and north around the system, so there is that. but looks like a small pocket of 5h vorticity enhances the mid-level wind fields and creates a very small (coverage wise) 8h-7h jet that points right into SE SNE. could be legit or could be "feedback" The vortmax in question does give me pause, but even the euro had an arc of QPF back from the center....like a mini deform area. I guess the question is can the srfc low get reasonably close to the BM. If it could then I think rain over SE MA is probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 The vortmax in question does give me pause, but even the euro had an arc of QPF back from the center....like a mini deform area. I guess the question is can the srfc low get reasonably close to the BM. If it could then I think rain over SE MA is probable. yeah i think some rain is a fair call...gfs looks like 1-1.5" over the Cape - i don't know...i feel like that's a bit much. i suppose the tropical feed into this airmass plus the warm processes going on in that conveyor belt could yield higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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