September weather discussion

[ORH_wxman]

That is a torch on the Euro for the first several days of October.

 

Classic Indian Summer pattern with pretty deep troughing over the Rockies. Its pretty far out on this part, but if it develops that deep lakes cutter as advertised as we get closer, that could be a pretty good wave break in the hemispheric pattern on the ATL side. That's a deep storm that develops. Perhaps that would help shift the pattern for later in the month.

[Ginx snewx]

That is a torch on the Euro for the first several days of October.

 

Classic Indian Summer pattern with pretty deep troughing over the Rockies. Its pretty far out on this part, but if it develops that deep lakes cutter as advertised as we get closer, that could be a pretty good wave break in the hemispheric pattern on the ATL side. That's a deep storm that develops. Perhaps that would help shift the pattern for later in the month.

No rain on Sat, calm her down, LOL

[Ginx snewx]

fYI that is ten days of no rain on the Euro

[HoarfrostHubb]

October 1 will be very warm and humid

It is my school's open house. That is just how it goes

[powderfreak]

That is a torch on the Euro for the first several days of October.

Classic Indian Summer pattern with pretty deep troughing over the Rockies. Its pretty far out on this part, but if it develops that deep lakes cutter as advertised as we get closer, that could be a pretty good wave break in the hemispheric pattern on the ATL side. That's a deep storm that develops. Perhaps that would help shift the pattern for later in the month.

If the alternative is this week's weather with 5 days of clouds and stale 40s and 50s...then let's sign up for a deep ridge with sun and 80F.

It's not like we are wasting snow chances, lol. Just hope we minimize the brutal cloudy days with temps of 45-55F. I'd take a torch in October and dive right into winter in Novie if possible haha.

[forkyfork]

No it doesn't sort of like the you cannot get two storms in a week mantra that used to go around, or the super bombs clear the atmosphere so no storms will be around for a while. The heat needs to be dispersed somewhere line seems bogus to me too.

i never said any of those things. what are you trying to tell me?

[ORH_wxman]

If the alternative is this week's weather with 5 days of clouds and stale 40s and 50s...then let's sign up for a deep ridge with sun and 80F.

It's not like we are wasting snow chances, lol. Just hope we minimize the brutal cloudy days with temps of 45-55F. I'd take a torch in October and dive right into winter in Novie if possible haha.

 

Might as well build the snow pack out west >10,000 feet where it actually is useful this time of year to start building a base. Good autumn snow pattern for the high mountains out there for several days.

[Damage In Tolland]

Oh Dear God at next week.

[Damage In Tolland]

Monster cold blast behind hell next week though..At least light at end of tunnel

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles getting on board for the Indian Summer next week too. Digging that Rockies trough deeper.

[moneypitmike]

October 1 will be very warm and humid

It is my school's open house. That is just how it goes

 

Smelly students and smelly parents??

[powderfreak]

Might as well build the snow pack out west >10,000 feet where it actually is useful this time of year to start building a base. Good autumn snow pattern for the high mountains out there for several days.

Yeah agreed...been loving seeing the winter weather headlines show up on the NWS map out west with Winter Storm Warnings flying.

[Typhoon Tip]

What a noble concept...it could be just a slow season. Who would have thought.

 

It is boring. No denying that. I've been numb to weather since June. Worst stretch of weather I can think of in terms of action.

 

I wrote an op-ed about that lack of action, and a hypothetical 'events budget' a week ago and got bombarded for it. 

 

But that is because a lot of users on this site are self-centric, imby, and snow obsessing.

 

that said, I stick with it and say that the storm last February is overrated do to it's smaller scale super impact over CT, and the fact that the snow was so powdery and light that 2' did not "inundate" in the truer faith of what that means.   Some tried to argue power outages over E and S zones... whatever.  Show us a Nor'easter that didn't.  

 

I still say that we have entered into a period of quiescence since about Sandy.   ... even if conceding on the snows of last winter more (which I am reluctant to do, do to the fact that as hammered ad nauseam, there was too much bare ground exposing the snows as not having sufficient integrate moisture to fend off a some intervening 44F days.  That's how you know ...) they were local to SNE.  

 

Colorado floods that just occurred -- that's more along the scale of event in question.  

 

But it may all just be normal to have this calm period.  It was active for a while, so we get sort of ...spoiled for the excitement, so to speak.  May this calm period is really any such budget coming back to balance.   Just have to deal.  

 

Hey Scott, about that ACE...  The lack of ACE means that we are effectively capping the normal release of lower latitude integrate oceanic heat content.  I was asking Dr. Colby the other day if there are any papers that correlate lower TC activity to middle latitude storm frequency and intensity during ensuing cold season, but he did not know of any. I also am aware that Florida U put out a paper that suggested recurving TCs may play a role in the strength of the ambient polar vortex.  That would certainly plausibly equate to a -AO or +AO response, if true, and perhaps we can back into a hypothesis that way...  Point being, I am wondering what is going to happen if/when the ideas for a colder than normal mid-latitude winter comes to fruition over top a boiling subtropics.  That would mean enhanced ambient gradient and unusually high jet speeds.

 

The trouble with that for storm enthusiasts is that jet speed is a two-edged sword.  It doesn't mean automatically that you get powerful storms, because the S/W mechanics differentiating the flow inside the domain spaces of the L/W is what determines storm strength; whereby if the L/W balanced wind fields are already blasting along, your entrance regions of jet maxes are less effective.   Folks have to take Dynamics to understand fully why, but without those differences there are less inflow jet responses and thus less cyclogen.  

 

Having glassed over eyes with all that ... it doesn't mean fast flows are a death sentence to snowiness ...or storms in general.  1993-1994 was a fast flow year with the giant gyre in E/SE Canada, yet we kept getting nickle and dimed to the tune of 90someodd inches.   Contrasting, 2 years later in 1995-1996, that was a slower ambient wind year, but local jet maxes were thus more capable of producing bigger events.     

[HoarfrostHubb]

Smelly students and smelly parents??

So far this year has been non smelly

It just is always hot at open house.

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro ensembles getting on board for the Indian Summer next week too. Digging that Rockies trough deeper.

 

 

AMS:  In New England, at least one killing frost and preferably a substantial period of normally cool weather must precede this warm spell in order for it to be considered a true "Indian summer."

 

Have we had a true killing frost ?    Seriously, not to be a dick but I know we did get a few advisories for NW zones, but I am wondering if we've been through what a true killing frost means.

[Ginx snewx]

i never said any of those things. what are you trying to tell me?

Uh I never said you did Forky just making a comparison.

[Ginx snewx]

I wrote an op-ed about that lack of action, and a hypothetical 'events budget' a week ago and got bombarded for it. 

 

But that is because a lot of users on this site are self-centric, imby, and snow obsessing.

 

that said, I stick with it and say that the storm last February is overrated do to it's smaller scale super impact over CT, and the fact that the snow was so powdery and light that 2' did not "inundate" in the truer faith of what that means.   Some tried to argue power outages over E and S zones... whatever.  Show us a Nor'easter that didn't.  

 

LMAO,

   Boston experienced a storm surge of 4.2 ft (1.3 m), its fourth-highest.

 A combination of strong winds and heavy, wet snow left 700,000 customers without electricity at the height of the storm. At least 18 deaths were attributed to this storm

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=80412

[ORH_wxman]

AMS:  In New England, at least one killing frost and preferably a substantial period of normally cool weather must precede this warm spell in order for it to be considered a true "Indian summer."

 

Have we had a true killing frost ?    Seriously, not to be a dick but I know we did get a few advisories for NW zones, but I am wondering if we've been through what a true killing frost means.

 

No, we have not had a killing frost...so we'll call it "pseudo Indian Summer" to make the semantic folks happy.

[It's Always Sunny]

I think that folks like myself deserve an Indian Summer based upon how horrible this thunderstorm season has been (at least up my way). We all know you guys are going to get your winter (even if it's cold temps and no snow), so let us rejoice and enjoy it while it's here.

[weathafella]

I'm looking forward to the warmth. Always nice to revisit shorts and tee shirts one last time.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm looking forward to the warmth. Always nice to revisit shorts and tee shirts one last time.

Damn I still haven't gotten out of the habit with the warm afternoons this weekend, 70s were comfortable, cold in the morning but by noon perfect. my high today was 63, oops on the 70s

[Typhoon Tip]

LMAO,

   Boston experienced a storm surge of 4.2 ft (1.3 m), its fourth-highest.

 A combination of strong winds and heavy, wet snow left 700,000 customers without electricity at the height of the storm. At least 18 deaths were attributed to this storm

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=80412

 

Dude, ...not sure what you are trying to argue.   You're hard headed sometimes, Steve.

 

I said over and over and over again, it was a great storm.  

 

Having said that, it just did not have the same "panache" of impact that others have, and it was too local to SNE to count as the "type" natural destructive event to be fair.  It wasn't pervasively impacting enough.  Too local.   And it was also too fast.  Statistic belie things...  

[powderfreak]

No, we have not had a killing frost...so we'll call it "pseudo Indian Summer" to make the semantic folks happy.

I've hit 31F so far, so screw semantics...it'll be an Indian summer

And anyway, I think any warm up with potential for high positive departures in October following a below normal September is an Indian Summer...even if it doesn't meet he full criteria.

[Typhoon Tip]

No, we have not had a killing frost...so we'll call it "pseudo Indian Summer" to make the semantic folks happy.

 

Well, yeah ... Like I said, not trying to be disky... ha.  

 

I always thought of truer Indian Summers to be that obnoxious warm up you get after Halloween ...or perhaps warm surrounding ... Used to happen in Michigan when I was kid.  

 

But it's all kind of silly when you think about it, because when does the season change ever go about an orderly procession of expected events.   I have seen Autumns go abruptly cold and snowy and never turn back, and autumns that never caved to winter until late January, and every year seems to feature something in between.  Maybe it is just the norm now for that stochastic type of year-to-year transition behavior.  Who knows... 

[Ginx snewx]

Dude, ...not sure what you are trying to argue.   You're hard headed sometimes, Steve.

 

I said over and over and over again, it was a great storm.  

 

Having said that, it just did not have the same "panache" of impact that others have, and it was too local to SNE to count as the "type" natural destructive event to be fair.  It wasn't pervasively impacting enough.  Too local.   

Tip that storm reshaped hundreds of miles of coastline, 4th highest ever storm surge!!! 30 foot waves,, 700K without powe, did you forget about the impacts on LI? hardly local, NMA escaped the brunt but this was a beast, why am I hard headed ? because I think you are way off base with your typical noreaster claim? I bet if you were back on the coast where you grew up loving the power of Noreasters you would not be speaking from an iyby tone. Historical blizzard from LI to Maine

[Typhoon Tip]

Tip that storm reshaped hundreds of miles of coastline, 4th highest ever storm surge!!! 30 foot waves,, 700K without powe, did you forget about the impacts on LI? hardly local, NMA escaped the brunt but this was a beast, why am I hard headed ? because I think you are way off base with your typical noreaster claim? I bet if you were back on the coast where you grew up loving the power of Noreasters you would not be speaking from an iyby tone. Historical blizzard from LI to Maine

 

So what ?  You are supplying information that is NON comparative, so it's scalar and says nothing about the argument at hand.

 

Was it as a bad as a Sandy.

 

Was it as bad as the catastrophic floods in Colorado (which were even smaller in scale!).

 

Was it as bad as, 1992, 1978, 1993.  

 

Was it as big as any of these.  

 

NO NO NO and NO.  

 

Actually... we could put this debate to rest.  I believe NCEP has a significant impact events type listing and they grade global and local events accordingly. I'll try to find it.  If they grade that Feb storm in the top 20 I'd be shocked.  We'll see.

 

The other thing about this that we're kind of dancing around/not considering... It may not actually be fair to compare storms from last century to now.  The technology to recover so vastly different that snow can only go so far.  For example, some communities in the northern Prefecture Japan don't have a problem with snow whether it snows a 1,000 inches or not, because they've embedded technology in the street temperatures that maintain a temperature just above freezing at all times.

 

Gee wiz... other people are the ones saying things are unusually calm.  Not me... The whole thing started when I merely suggested there is a hypothetical events budget.  Just keep it at that.   

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm looking forward to the warmth. Always nice to revisit shorts and tee shirts one last time.

Who hasn't been wearing them since April? No one has been wearing pants or winter wear yet

[Damage In Tolland]

So what ? You are supplying information that is NON comparative, so it's scalar and says nothing about the argument at hand.

Was it as a bad as a Sandy.

Was it as bad as the catastrophic floods in Colorado (which were even smaller in scale!).

Was it as bad as, 1992, 1978, 1993.

Was it as big as any of these.

NO NO NO and NO.

Actually... we could put this debate to rest. I believe NCEP has a significant impact events type listing and they grade global and local events accordingly. I'll try to find it. If they grade that Feb storm in the top 20 I'd be shocked. We'll see.

The other thing about this that we're kind of dancing around/not considering... It may not actually be fair to compare storms from last century to now. The technology to recover so vastly different that snow can only go so far. For example, some communities in the northern Prefecture Japan don't have a problem with snow whether it snows a 1,000 inches or not, because they've embedded technology in the street temperatures that maintain a temperature just above freezing at all times.

Gee wiz... other people are the ones saying things are unusually calm. Not me... The whole thing started when I merely suggested there is a hypothetical events budget. Just keep it at that.

On this you are met clad wrong. Heh

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh, they don't include 2013 yet so taken for what it is worth.  NOAA keeps them...

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events

[Ginx snewx]

Tip your original claim was that we have not had a blockbuster since Sandy, you were dead wrong dude. Low impact , nah