nzucker Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 I'd go first ten days average above normal...if I had to guess right now. I don't think it is a huge torch or anything. I just see a poor source region in this longwave pattern. So the troughs won't deliever moderate to large cold departures like they would in a better setup.The PV is over Siberia towsrds the Laptev/East Siberian Sea with a GOA low so North America doesn't have much cold air. The flow also looks zonal with compression underneath the jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 If this were winter, weenies would rejoice from the GFS. endless cold and HECS every 3 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 endless cold and HECS every 3 days? No, it brought back the coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 All I heard about last night and today was how beautiful today would be? currently 61 and cloudy, great forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 No, it brought back the coastal low. if you can call it that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 All I heard about last night and today was how beautiful today would be? currently 61 and cloudy, great forecasts Interior FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 if you can call it that Yes very weak. Not sure I buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 No, it brought back the coastal low. should we start hyping or wait for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Interior FTL. Its kind of semi-crappy in BOS today too though. Was just outside at Copley and its mostly cloudy and a bit cool out with some onshore flow. Feels like autumn...which I don't mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 Its kind of semi-crappy in BOS today too though. Was just outside at Copley and its mostly cloudy and a bit cool out with some onshore flow. Feels like autumn...which I don't mind. clouds are breaking here in SECT but nice and cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Its kind of semi-crappy in BOS today too though. Was just outside at Copley and its mostly cloudy and a bit cool out with some onshore flow. Feels like autumn...which I don't mind. Looked ok on vis along the shore, but those clouds must be coming down from the n shore. Maybe it clears out a bit of the seabreeze pushes west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 Looked ok on vis along the shore, but those clouds must be coming down from the n shore. Maybe it clears out a bit of the seabreeze pushes west a bit. cold pool? NNE winds from retro storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 clouds are breaking here in SECT but nice and cool. Ditto here. Not sure we'll make the predicted high of 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 cold has over performed since July 21, something to keep in the back of the rack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 cold pool? NNE winds from retro storm The CU developing from daytime heating was actually modeled, but some of that drier air near Dendrite should try to work down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 cold has over performed since July 21, something to keep in the back of the rack I think that won't hold up much longer. It's easier to do in Sept when climo is still warm. Now that we are continuing to keep Canada mild, those same type of cold shots probably won't produce the departures that we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 I think that won't hold up much longer. It's easier to do in Sept when climo is still warm. Now that we are continuing to keep Canada mild, those same type of cold shots probably won't produce the departures that we've had. we will see I guess, lots of folks said Sept would be mild too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Every single day the forecast starts out with more sun than clouds, and every single day we end up overcast and cloudy. MVL has had like 4 random observations of CLR skies in the past several days, every other hour has had some sort of clouds. Such a hard forecast and you know its been a thorn for the BTV forecasters...each AFD seems to be optimistic about clearing, then it doesn't happen and the result is an update to "Mostly Cloudy." .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS AND TEMPS BASED ON CRNT SATL ANDOBS. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING ACRS THENEK/NORTHERN VT ATTM...WITH SOME SHALLOW CU DEVELOPING ALONG THESPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM THE COMBINATION OF SFCHEATING...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. FEEL THE NWCYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLW AND WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT...ALONG WITHASSOCIATED MOISTURE WL HELP TO DEVELOP CLOUDS ACRSCENTRAL/NORTHERN VT TODAY. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...AS OF 1008 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO GOINGFORECAST W/ LATEST UPDATE. MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VT WILL SEECLDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THRU THE AREA FOR THE OVERNGT WITH CLRINGTOWARDS MORNING. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 106 PM EDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROMTHE NORTHEAST...EVEN INTO NORTHEAST NEW YORK. ADJUSTED SKY ANDTEMPS GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THE RESULT ISMORE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK THISAFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. Its been this way since Monday...sucks because last Saturday, it looked like this would be a beautiful week which has turned into something out of November with slate gray skies for four days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Every single day the forecast starts out with more sun than clouds, and every single day we end up overcast and cloudy. MVL has had like 4 random observations of CLR skies in the past several days, every other hour has had some sort of clouds. Such a hard forecast and you know its been a thorn for the BTV forecasters...each AFD seems to be optimistic about clearing, then it doesn't happen and the result is an update to "Mostly Cloudy." .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS AND TEMPS BASED ON CRNT SATL AND OBS. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING ACRS THE NEK/NORTHERN VT ATTM...WITH SOME SHALLOW CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM THE COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. FEEL THE NW CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLW AND WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WL HELP TO DEVELOP CLOUDS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT TODAY. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1008 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST W/ LATEST UPDATE. MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VT WILL SEE CLDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THRU THE AREA FOR THE OVERNGT WITH CLRING TOWARDS MORNING. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 106 PM EDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...EVEN INTO NORTHEAST NEW YORK. ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMPS GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THE RESULT IS MORE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. Its been this way since Monday...sucks because last Saturday, it looked like this would be a beautiful week which has turned into something out of November with slate gray skies for four days now. vis.jpg Pretty distinct sat pic of the down slope areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Keep it quiet, save the storms for winterit doesn't work that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 if you can call it thatYup barely 60 here. Great cool day FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 it doesn't work that way No it doesn't sort of like the you cannot get two storms in a week mantra that used to go around, or the super bombs clear the atmosphere so no storms will be around for a while. The heat needs to be dispersed somewhere line seems bogus to me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 euro continues to show warmth next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 what's so horrible about 80 in october? warm weather is nice no matter what month it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 what's so horrible about 80 in october? warm weather is nice no matter what month it is Don't really care either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 what's so horrible about 80 in october? warm weather is nice no matter what month it is nothing bring it on, loving the string of weather we are having, might as well have it sunny and warm and cool at night until winter comes in. great Frisbee, football, baseball, fishing, chilling outside weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 euro is pretty warm next week. +16C 850s for a time with W flow...probably 75-80+ around the region. with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 euro is pretty warm next week. +16C 850s for a time with W flow...probably 75-80+ around the region. with that. Kevin's already planning to draw the shades. What a waste of a perfectly good winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 This time of year is sort of like late April to mid May where the weather is still very pleasant, there's still a decent amount of sunlight, and weather conditions tend to be quite calm. The positives of course are that we are progressing toward rather than away from winter and the foliage season is always a pleasant sight to most, but getting progressively cooler rather than warmer is my ideal autumn. Going from cooler weather in September to maybe 80s in October is not very pleasant in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 it's never a slow progression. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.