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September weather discussion


Ginx snewx

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So much for the cold start to October that one person was insisting. Looks mild and boring.

 

 

Longwave pattern hasn't really supported cold for early Oct for a while...its not shocking that the guidance has warmed as we got closer. There are signs that maybe we try to flip it colder after mid-month.

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Will it storm ever again?

 

Hemispheric pattern is happy. Gotta shift that around. We'll have some weather probably in early October with random fropas and possible lows developing...it's Fall after all, but it isn't an active pattern at the moment. It does look like the NW and NCTRL states could see some cold shots during the 1st and 2nd weeks of October.

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Longwave pattern hasn't really supported cold for early Oct for a while...its not shocking that the guidance has warmed as we got closer. There are signs that maybe we try to flip it colder after mid-month.

 

Very stable pattern.  Not much you can really hope for in terms of action, but at least the wx is pleasant.

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This has to be on track for a record or close to record low ACE (Both for the Globe and Atlantic basin)

Yeah it's been a spectacular failure, particularly when compared to the initial outlooks of an "active to extremely active" season. Then we get the follow up of "well there's many factors at play etc.."

Basically tropics gon' do what tropics gon' do. I'm guessing the number of folks taking tropical forecasts seriously next year will be a bit diminished given the "oh they don't know anything, look at last year" effect.

Anyway, 57 degrees and sunny on yet another soul-crushingly boring day. At least it's comfortable though, this still beats the HHH days easily.

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Really substantial cooling in the GOA in the last week....   Not entirely unexpected I guess with the persistent LP that's been sitting there.  If it retros a bit we may see some oscillation, but it does seem that over the next couple weeks that the trend is likely toward cooler SSTs in that region, which presents a different look.  Actually the NP might start looking a bit like last year eventually.

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not sure I am buying this warm up, probably a couple of days above normal as we start Oct but the NAO wants to stay negative and signs of a positive PNA appearing.I am thinking by Oct 5 we cool down significantly.

 

 

I'd go first ten days average above normal...if I had to guess right now. I don't think it is a huge torch or anything. I just see a poor source region in this longwave pattern. So the troughs won't deliever moderate to large cold departures like they would in a better setup.

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This really has been a ridiculous dead season globally for TCs.

 

I hope the late season is active though with some PAC recurves which may help excite blocking tendencies in the EPO region.

 

Yeah lets get it active then.

 

Makes you think about the heat budget. We know the roles of hurricanes and the heat transport they have, but when there is such a lack of storms....the heat has to manifest itself somehow.

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In the age where anything has to be AGW related, I love it.

i hate AGW. i feel like both sides are going more and more extreme and more and more looney tunes. 

 

i guess if you wanted to make a connection to it (AGW and the lack of TCs) you could talk about the general tropical circulation systems being slowed or altered...i.e. maybe a shift in the walker circulation or a difference in the hadley cell. but there are conflicting papers on both of course. but...could also just be a slow season :lol:

 

i need to take a trip to someplace where there's weather happening i think. not sure where that is though. 

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i hate AGW. i feel like both sides are going more and more extreme and more and more looney tunes. 

 

i guess if you wanted to make a connection to it (AGW and the lack of TCs) you could talk about the general tropical circulation systems being slowed or altered...i.e. maybe a shift in the walker circulation or a difference in the hadley cell. but there are conflicting papers on both of course. but...could also just be a slow season :lol:

 

i need to take a trip to someplace where there's weather happening i think. not sure where that is though. 

 

What a noble concept...it could be just a slow season. Who would have thought.

 

It is boring. No denying that. I've been numb to weather since June. Worst stretch of weather I can think of in terms of action.

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