weathafella Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 read the PDf I posted It's a good paper but still weak scientifically due a relatively small subset of years used in his hypothesis. So it's not suprising that we all of a sudden get violators sometimes. Still, it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 37.4/36 attm Crisp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 37.4/36 attm Crisp Love it! 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Love it! 39F Same here. It's great when we start hitting the 30s regularly. Great stretch of fall weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Leaves are really coming along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Leaves are really coming along. I'm surprised at the amount of color showing in the Maples/Birch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 I'm surprised at the amount of color showing in the Maples/Birch. Yeah Rt 24 must look decent right now. Lots of maples off the highway in the more wet/bog areas....it's kind of an underrated highway in terms of color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Yeah Rt 24 must look decent right now. Lots of maples off the highway in the more wet/bog areas....it's kind of an underrated highway in terms of color. Yeah, I love the Rt 24 and I-495 stretches in the Brockton down to Freetown areas and over to Mansfield. I should grab some shots if I can. Even the Maples/Birches in my yard are changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Yeah Rt 24 must look decent right now. Lots of maples off the highway in the more wet/bog areas....it's kind of an underrated highway in terms of color. Yeah, I love the Rt 24 and I-495 stretches in the Brockton down to Freetown areas and over to Mansfield. I should grab some shots if I can. Even the Maples/Birches in my yard are changing. The weather is almost perfect for fall foliage to keep ramping up without setbacks...we like lots of sunshine and cool/crisp nights (but not hard frosts or freezes) which is exactly what we are getting right now and in the rest of the week. October is still looking fairly mild on a lot of the analog patterns...we'll have to see how that develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 The weather is almost perfect for fall foliage to keep ramping up without setbacks...we like lots of sunshine and cool/crisp nights (but not hard frosts or freezes) which is exactly what we are getting right now and in the rest of the week. October is still looking fairly mild on a lot of the analog patterns...we'll have to see how that develops. The rain should help reduce some of the dull look we had here too. Could use a little more locally, but I have to think this should be a great season for Fall colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 The rain should help reduce some of the dull look we had here too. Could use a little more locally, but I have to think this should be a great season for Fall colors. Yeah but we don't want a lot of rain...rain and humid/mild nights are bad for foliage. Maybe just enough to give the trees a drink and minimal wind too. The best conditions for foliage are a wet summer and a dry fall with a lot of sun and cool/crisp nights. We didn't really get a wet summer, but it wasn't parched either. August was a bit dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Same here. It's great when we start hitting the 30s regularly. Great stretch of fall weather! Warmer up here... only briefly dipped to 44F at 7am, but it was still 50F at 5am. We haven't seen a clear night in a little while now. That upper level low with persistent upslope flow has locked clouds up here for like 3-4 days it seems now. The weather is almost perfect for fall foliage to keep ramping up without setbacks...we like lots of sunshine and cool/crisp nights (but not hard frosts or freezes) which is exactly what we are getting right now and in the rest of the week. Its been the exact opposite up here... last September was a lot better for us for foliage weather (huge diurnal swings all month long) as we haven't been in the 30s even half the time we were last September. We keep having days like 50/44 and 59/46 with very low diurnal change under these upper level lows. The trees don't really seem to know what to do with it, haha. Each day I keep thinking that last year's foliage was world's better than this year, but we'll see when it peaks. Its looking late, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Warmer up here... only briefly dipped to 44F at 7am, but it was still 50F at 5am. We haven't seen a clear night in a little while now. That upper level low with persistent upslope flow has locked clouds up here for like 3-4 days it seems now. Its been the exact opposite up here... last September was a lot better for us for foliage weather (huge diurnal swings all month long) as we haven't been in the 30s even half the time we were last September. We keep having days like 50/44 and 59/46 with very low diurnal change under these upper level lows. The trees don't really seem to know what to do with it, haha. Each day I keep thinking that last year's foliage was world's better than this year, but we'll see when it peaks. Its looking late, too. Yeah looks like you've been getting screwed by a lot of clouds...you want sunshine too, not just the clear, crisp nights to get max foliage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 N.Maine is at/near peak, but the winds Sun-yest have pulled down a lot of leaves. About halfway there around my place, seems a tad earlier than usual. Not much sun since Saturday afternoon, and relatively small diurnal ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Nice, the GFS is trying to bring lake effect graupel showers to Michigan at D10.5. I wonder what the climatology for "modeling cold" is for these types of outlooks. It seems we usually have to get later into October for the phantom cold runs to kick in... Not sure though. Anyway, I lived in Michigan for 15 years and I recognize this type of thing. The air smells of snow, but not quite snowing.. It's jacket weather where in between low-top convective showers of sleet/graupel, rain and noodles mixed, the sun off-sets and feels warm. It's usually more of an early November thing, though not as warm in-between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Anyway, I lived in Michigan for 15 years and I recognize this type of thing. The air smells of snow, but not quite snowing.. It's jacket weather where in between low-top convective showers of sleet/graupel, rain and noodles mixed, the sun off-sets and feels warm. It's usually more of an early November thing, though not as warm in-between. We get that in October up this way pretty much every year. Probably similar to lake effect in that its upslope induced, but the brief periods of 35dbz cored showers that drop flakes, grauple, rain... you name it. It lasts for like 2-3 minutes that rolls out, sun breaks out, then another cellular shower rolls off the peaks and drops a variety of p-types. October 12th last year...so long range GFS showing that now sounds about right, especially since it usually comes to the upper Lakes first, then us second. About dead on right for that first intrusion in the first half of October. One minute its graupel, the next minute its snowing, then its raining. You have to be under the 30+ dbz yellow cores to get the frozen precip... anything less than that and its just light rain. Here's the radar from that day, as the Spine north of I-89 here was the main trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 N.Maine is at/near peak, but the winds Sun-yest have pulled down a lot of leaves. About halfway there around my place, seems a tad earlier than usual. Not much sun since Saturday afternoon, and relatively small diurnal ranges. Here's a comparison from this year to last year this way so far... This is this year, shot yesterday, 9/24th, its just not vibrant. Very subdue color changes. This is last year, shot on 9/27th: Last year's colors will be very hard to beat. It was the best foliage season I've ever seen. Not sure what happened, but this stuff was as vibrant as possible. Literally almost unbelievable. Will be hard to top the 2012 foliage season for us... When I think of peak foliage, this is what I think of...the reds last year were unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 IMG_8188_edited-1.jpg One minute its graupel, the next minute its snowing, then its raining. You have to be under the 30+ dbz yellow cores to get the frozen precip... anything less than that and its just light rain. Yeah, that's about exactly what I had in mind, and the photo of the snow balls bouncing around the car top is pretty spot on... flip back forth and that jazz. I actually remember one day where in early October one year we started out the day that way, but by 2pm, the temp managed to eek out a 50-like high, and there was better defined CB with a thunderclap. ...but that is rarer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Lookin at MPV data for last year, they had a huge stretch of like 14 out of 16 dry days with many having huge diurnal swings. That is perfect for maximizing the foliage colors. You want lots of sun and cool/crisp nights that are not cold enough to damage the leaves. This year, the data shows 4 days with no measurable precip...4!!! At this point in 2012, they had 16 days. Thats a lot of days with cloudiness and/or precip and it works against the color optimization versus a lot of days with sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Lookin at MPV data for last year, they had a huge stretch of like 14 out of 16 dry days with many having huge diurnal swings. That is perfect for maximizing the foliage colors. You want lots of sun and cool/crisp nights that are not cold enough to damage the leaves. This year, the data shows 4 days with no measurable precip...4!!! At this point in 2012, they had 16 days. Thats a lot of days with cloudiness and/or precip and it works against the color optimization versus a lot of days with sunny skies. It's unfortunate the colors are dull up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 This is this year, shot yesterday, 9/24th, its just not vibrant. Very subdue color changes. Those pics last year are insane, but the colors still looks awesome this year, especially in this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Powder it looks like the pic from last year was taken with the sun shining at a lower angle, which is helping to give the appearance of more vibrance. I wonder what they would look like with a pic from this year shot at the exact same time (or close to it). Anyway if you anxious for snow check these cams out: http://www.wyoroad.info/highway/webcameras/US26287WindRiverLake/US26287WindRiverLake.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Heading to Baxter SP/Katahdin Sat-Tues. Hope to catch some good foliage and hiking weather. At this point it's looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Down here in northern NJ we have nothing but vibrant green still with spotty to stray colors beginning to show up the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Looks like the weenie day 10 Euro is getting ready for cyclogenesis maximus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Drove Rt 2 from Greenfield to Cambridge today and it appears to be a great foliage season unfolding. Vibrant colors starting to pop. Next two weeks should be epic. Already better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Lookin at MPV data for last year, they had a huge stretch of like 14 out of 16 dry days with many having huge diurnal swings. That is perfect for maximizing the foliage colors. You want lots of sun and cool/crisp nights that are not cold enough to damage the leaves. This year, the data shows 4 days with no measurable precip...4!!! At this point in 2012, they had 16 days. Thats a lot of days with cloudiness and/or precip and it works against the color optimization versus a lot of days with sunny skies. Yeah the weather this month was completely different from last year at the same time. And I know there's always discussion about summer weather affecting leaves, but it would appear that after September 1st is the prime time for weather to affect colors. Last September was a spectacular month with various frosts and warm sunny days (but no freeze). This season we had a freeze early (31F) and then low diurnal swings after that. Only 4 dry days though sounds par for the course this year up here...especially with May/June/July setting records for precipitation along with days of precipitation. It's unfortunate the colors are dull up there. You clown I don't even know why I bother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Yeah the weather this month was completely different from last year at the same time. And I know there's always discussion about summer weather affecting leaves, but it would appear that after September 1st is the prime time for weather to affect colors. Last September was a spectacular month with various frosts and warm sunny days (but no freeze). This season we had a freeze early (31F) and then low diurnal swings after that. Only 4 dry days though sounds par for the course this year up here...especially with May/June/July setting records for precipitation along with days of precipitation. You clown I don't even know why I bother You'll get me back when I'm watching it go down the drain while the snow at the 4k picnic tables pile up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Powder it looks like the pic from last year was taken with the sun shining at a lower angle, which is helping to give the appearance of more vibrance. I wonder what they would look like with a pic from this year shot at the exact same time (or close to it). Anyway if you anxious for snow check these cams out: http://www.wyoroad.info/highway/webcameras/US26287WindRiverLake/US26287WindRiverLake.html Yeah one was from like 7am last year (trying to catch the ground fog/frost) and this years was from 10-11am. I'm sure the foliage will be great in the end, but I'm just trying to make objective observations between the years. It's interesting to me why/how one year is better than another...and it can be localized too. I think the differences in September weather like Will pointed out has a big thing to do with it. The visible satellite hasn't really changed in days...another overcast day out this way with a relatively low diurnal range. Looks like BTV might have had a nice day along with a good chunk of SNE. It's funny because like 3 days ago our forecast was for sunshine all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Down here in northern NJ we have nothing but vibrant green still with spotty to stray colors beginning to show up the past few days. Same here. Have about a month to go before the average peak. Seems like it gets later and later every year with less color. We definitely don't have anything like northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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