weathafella Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I just don't want winter to shoot its load in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I just don't want winter to shoot its load in October. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 After the cold start the house was still 62F at noon so I fired up the wood stove for it's first burn of the season. 65F outside atm, + 31 degrees off our low at 7am. 72F in the living room though, I'm a shorts until Haloween kind of guy if I have the stove to come back to and ease the chill. : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 IMO the NYC low is more eye opening than the BOS one last week. ESP since it's in the woods and not in an open calm area. It usually takes them until later in Oct to get that low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 WOW..now this is about as impressive a stat as we've seen .. I'm beginning to believe NWS New York NY @NWSNewYorkNY42m The 47 degrees in #NYC this am was the coldest September low in 13 years! Last time at or below 47 was in 2000. http://ow.ly/i/3eJlU #nywx Sign me up for another 2000-2001 winter... 432" of snowfall on the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I just don't want winter to shoot its load in October. The different opinions and superstitions this time of year are pretty funny. Some are looking for deep chills and snow in October, some want it to be below normal but with no snow, others want it to be mild so as not to "use up" the cold departures right now, some bang snow cover in Siberia and Canada, others swear by October NAO/AO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 The different opinions and superstitions this time of year are pretty funny. Some are looking for deep chills and snow in October, some want it to be below normal but with no snow, others want it to be mild so as not to "use up" the cold departures right now, some bang snow cover in Siberia and Canada, others swear by October NAO/AO...Siberian snow advance index theory is a peer reviewed professional research paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Siberian snow advance index theory is a peer reviewed professional research paper. Oh I'm sure it is... I'm sure there are papers on all sorts of correlations between fall indices and the following winter pattern, too. Its still interesting how everyone has their different things they are looking at or for to clue into the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Oh I'm sure it is... I'm sure there are papers on all sorts of correlations between fall indices and the following winter pattern, too. Its still interesting how everyone has their different things they are looking at or for to clue into the upcoming winter. It's not a perfect correlation..I think the r values decrease as the sample size increased, but the SAI is probably more of a predictor..or at least has a higher correlation. Like many things on the Earth, the atmosphere responds to the changes of this feature..not just the actual value itself. IOW, a rapid build up of snowpack is probably a better predictor than the actual extent of the snowpack on October 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 its coming quickly this year, love seeing snow in the USA again, Vail this morning Yeah Colorado got a good dumping in some parts... Here's Aspen: Loveland Ski Area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 It was dead calm here barring slight movement of air but my anemometer only had some 2mph wind about 0300, that was it all night. Different story down here. It was 37° at my house but it's always a few degrees cooler down the hill from me and it was frosty across all three towns that I drive through in northern CT. No advisory though. Yeah, winds were also calm here, with a low of 37 degrees. I didn't notice much frost at our house, but I didn't really get to look closely this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 This time of year is always tough..The woods keeping the house cool with little sun hitting it. Upstairs temp is an even 60 on the thermostat and it's downright cold. Downstairs is a more bearable 66. Will not use heat till the cold shot next week after whatever TS moves thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Yeah Colorado got a good dumping in some parts... Here's Aspen: IMG_3847.jpg Loveland Ski Area: Nice my wife is in the process of driving from San Diego to Omaha NE , she is taking 70 and stopping in Vail, hopefully she sends me some good pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 This time of year is always tough..The woods keeping the house cool with little sun hitting it. Upstairs temp is an even 60 on the thermostat and it's downright cold. Downstairs is a more bearable 66. Will not use heat till the cold shot next week after whatever TS moves thru My bedroom is 72. Windows open. Heat off. Insulation dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 It's not a perfect correlation..I think the r values decrease as the sample size increased, but the SAI is probably more of a predictor..or at least has a higher correlation. Like many things on the Earth, the atmosphere responds to the changes of this feature..not just the actual value itself. IOW, a rapid build up of snowpack is probably a better predictor than the actual extent of the snowpack on October 31..71 it's the highest correlation for NE of any of the indexes and his paper specifically places more value on change rather than depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 My bedroom is 72. Windows open. Heat off. Insulation dudeAre you full sun or shaded? Huge difference in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 My bedroom is 72. Windows open. Heat off. Insulation dude Not sure how possible when yesterday we both stayed in the upper 50's and today barely tickled above 60. Do you have aluminum foil on the roof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Are you full sun or shaded? Huge difference in the fall. Yep... my condo has floor to ceiling windows and sliders on south and west facing walls, with generally open fields/lawn around so it bakes all day long in the sunshine. Really cuts down on heating bills fall/winter/spring, but the downside is on a few of the hotter summer day I tend to keep the drapes closed during max heating time of day. From now until like May there's a huge benefit to having ample sunshine on your home vs. being surrounded by trees and dense canopy right overhead. It can be like 40F outside but if you have good sunlight coming through big picture windows all afternoon, you can get your inside temperature quite high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Not sure how possible when yesterday we both stayed in the upper 50's and today barely tickled above 60. Do you have aluminum foil on the roof? Direct sunlight. That's how. Take a south-facing room with good exposure and some windows... doesn't matter what the temperature is outside, lol. I have the heat set for 60F, but the inside temperature in my place right now is 70-72 (I can post a picture of my thermostat if you don't believe it, haha). Yesterday's max/min was 50/44 and today's high was 55F, yet its a shade over 70F inside and the heat hasn't been on yet this year...that's even with the sliding doors open for a couple hours this afternoon so the dog could come and go as she pleases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Yep... my condo has floor to ceiling windows and sliders on south and west facing walls, with generally open fields/lawn around so it bakes all day long in the sunshine. Really cuts down on heating bills fall/winter/spring, but the downside is on a few of the hotter summer day I tend to keep the drapes closed during max heating time of day. From now until like May there's a huge benefit to having ample sunshine on your home vs. being surrounded by trees and dense canopy right overhead. It can be like 40F outside but if you have good sunlight coming through big picture windows all afternoon, you can get your inside temperature quite high. Yes but seeing as there are no leaves from Nov until late April the cooling effect in summer is worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 .71 it's the highest correlation for NE of any of the indexes and his paper specifically places more value on change rather than depth. Are those the more recent winters he had? I thought it went to .6 when you expand, but I think that may have been the original paper. It was discussed last year by Mallow I believe. Maybe someone can look, I can't at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Are those the more recent winters he had? I thought it went to .6 when you expand, but I think that may have been the original paper. It was discussed last year by Mallow I believe. Maybe someone can look, I can't at the moment. A question regarding something you said earlier...why is rate of change in the snow cover more important than the overal extent/depth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Yes but seeing as there are no leaves from Nov until late April the cooling effect in summer is worth it. Valid point... Glad to see your foliage is moving along down there from you picture earlier. I actually think we may be a little later than we were last year when I compare my own pictures. It's definitely running a little more dull too. Last September was below normal like this September, but the weather was perfect for foliage last year with huge diurnal swings (like 78/34 with 40+ degree swings). Last September we had 12 mornings in the 30s (this year we've had 5) and our minimum temps are averaging 3F warmer than last September, while our highs are colder than last year. Down in SNE you may have been seeing better foliage weather with more clear skies, warmer days, and cooler nights. I fell like MetHerb has seen a few days with frost in his vicinity, while up here we've had one frost. We've had a lot more clouds lately from these upper lows getting stuck in the Maritimes, so maybe SNE gets the more vibrant colors this season. Last year will be hard to beat up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 A question regarding something you said earlier...why is rate of change in the snow cover more important than the overal extent/depth?[/quotehttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCcQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nws.noaa.gov%2Fost%2Fclimate%2FSTIP%2FFY11CTBSeminars%2Fjcohen_062211.pdf&ei=Rx5CUqT5ErHK4APcj4CQAg&usg=AFQjCNF3mD20l5iWSNbxeeAf5M6a6Zt7Rw&bvm=bv.53077864,d.dmg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 A question regarding something you said earlier...why is rate of change in the snow cover more important than the overal extent/depth? Steve might have posted the paper, bit it seems the rate of change south of 60N has the best correlation. The idea is rapid surface cooling allows the cold air to plunge south and excite the polar jet. This causes what we call rosby wave excitement and a return north of warmer air into AK and the PV that may be residing there. Also, the dome of cold air over Siberia causes a vertical flux of waves into the stratosphere an allows the PV to be disturbed from the bottom up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Are you full sun or shaded? Huge difference in the fall. Yeah, my neighbors (full sun) had their windows open today while I was burning wood. Shade and lower sun angle make a huge difference. I likes my pine cathedral though so it's a trade off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Are you full sun or shaded? Huge difference in the fall.Partial shade. Basically full sun from 10AM until 3:30 or so this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Not sure how possible when yesterday we both stayed in the upper 50's and today barely tickled above 60. Do you have aluminum foil on the roof?No. Just a tight house I guess. And the front of the house faces south/southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Steve might have posted the paper, bit it seems the rate of change south of 60N has the best correlation. The idea is rapid surface cooling allows the cold air to plunge south and excite the polar jet. This causes what we call rosby wave excitement and a return north of warmer air into AK and the PV that may be residing there. Also, the dome of cold air over Siberia causes a vertical flux of waves into the stratosphere an allows the PV to be disturbed from the bottom up. That makes a surprising amount of sense, haha. Thanks and well said. Rapid, widespread cooling over a large geographical area definitely seems like it could have a larger impact on large-scale circulation, rather than a long, slow, gradual lowering in latitude of the snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2013 Author Share Posted September 25, 2013 That makes a surprising amount of sense, haha. Thanks and well said. Rapid, widespread cooling over a large geographical area definitely seems like it could have a larger impact on large-scale circulation, rather than a long, slow, gradual lowering in latitude of the snow cover.read the PDf I posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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