CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Well then that changed from the last few days. I have Joe texting me that October is an all out torch lol. Looks like Sept comes in below normal at all 4 majors You guys worry way too much about October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 You guys worry way too much about October. I've always believed that Oct is the most imp month in determining the ensuing winter. I know it doesn't always work out like that..but I remember Tony from NWS Mt Holly always felt Oct was key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 I've always believed that Oct is the most imp month in determining the ensuing winter. I know it doesn't always work out like that..but I remember Tony from NWS Mt Holly always felt Oct was key. The further north you go, the less you need to go right. DC needs a good ENSO, blocking, and the rosary around your neck if you want a good winter. For us, just no AK vortex. October is also a month of change. My only concern would be if we had a stubborn vortex in AK all month and the weeklies at the end of the month had it through November. Then I would be concerned, otherwise pop open an Octoberfest and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 You guys worry way too much about October. I've always believed that Oct is the most imp month in determining the ensuing winter. I know it doesn't always work out like that..but I remember Tony from NWS Mt Holly always felt Oct was key. Kevin, why don't you get all the an and below normal Octobers and compare winters? Otherwise your statement is strictly weenie and lot science. You may be right but we know some notable exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Yes around late January there will be a mild up Probably a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 The further north you go, the less you need to go right. DC needs a good ENSO, blocking, and the rosary around your neck if you want a good winter. For us, just no AK vortex. October is also a month of change. My only concern would be if we had a stubborn vortex in AK all month and the weeklies at the end of the month had it through November. Then I would be concerned, otherwise pop open an Octoberfest and relax. Agreed...I'm almost the other way, if we get a good cold spell for October with stormy conditions, that rubber band snaps back the other way usually right when we don't want it to in Nov/Dec. Below normal in October leads to just prolonging the awful time of year when it's cold but not cold enough to snow. It's like prolonging the number of 40-48 degree days with rain...I'd almost rather just prolong our stretch of days in the 60s then flip a switch in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 You guys worry way too much about October. October is a winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 October is a winter month Ahh yes, we move back a month so that March is now a Spring month. Summer starts in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 It was pretty windy day out in the woods here in NE CT. With the rain coming tonight into tomorrow I figure I should get some work done out there. Lots of work to be done with the storms we've had since spring. Also, I got around to putting new batteries in my temperature sensor in Union so that's back online and should provide some data in that blank spot on the map. I'm uploading the data to WU and CWOP so it should show up on the Mesonet maps shortly but it's been offline for several months. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KCTSTAFF3 http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=DW8905 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 October is a winter month Seasons as seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2013 Author Share Posted September 22, 2013 I don't know what Tip was talking about because the Feb Blizz was the most violent and high impact storm I have seen since 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 I don't know what Tip was talking about because the Feb Blizz was the most violent and high impact storm I have seen since 78. Well for CT. I think he was thinking more his area, but yeah it was a high impact storm across all three states pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Well I'm not aboard the weenie express like you are. The euro ensembles still aren't anything noteworthy. happy for a glancing Oct blow, but I prefer the parade of cold and storms to start in late November so that the pattern gets established at the right time and the pack can build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Agreed...I'm almost the other way, if we get a good cold spell for October with stormy conditions, that rubber band snaps back the other way usually right when we don't want it to in Nov/Dec. Below normal in October leads to just prolonging the awful time of year when it's cold but not cold enough to snow. It's like prolonging the number of 40-48 degree days with rain...I'd almost rather just prolong our stretch of days in the 60s then flip a switch in November. exactly. I like crisp and sunny days in Oct, with the occassional warm day. When the cold and snow come in late November that is just about perfect because the inevitable thaw is less painful when a deep snowpack is established early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2013 Author Share Posted September 22, 2013 exactly. I like crisp and sunny days in Oct, with the occassional warm day. When the cold and snow come in late November that is just about perfect because the inevitable thaw is less painful when a deep snowpack is established early.hey Mahky Mahk welcome back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 hey Mahky Mahk welcome back Thanks Steve! I took a summer hiatus....but my schedule has been brutal. Posting today from Melbourne AU, on this trip have been to London, Tel Aviv, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore so far. during the summer and returning at the end of the month to full on fall, perhaps with an early cold snap pending! All too fast of an end to summer so I've been sneaking in time by the pool on this trip. Sounds like an unusually optimistic feeling about this winter... Hope you are well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 You guys worry way too much about October. It's true. If it doesn't snow in October, you've lost a whole winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Well for CT. I think he was thinking more his area, but yeah it was a high impact storm across all three states pretty much. Typical. Weather stops north of Boston... We were just crushed here. Out and out blizzard in every sense of the word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Kevin, why don't you get all the an and below normal Octobers and compare winters? Otherwise your statement is strictly weenie and lot science. You may be right but we know some notable exceptions. There is a correlation with colder Octobers to good winters here, but it is very weak. The correlation is much stronger to our south. Tony had pretty solid stats for Philly area. Up here, its more of "eh, it would be nice for October to come in cold, but its not needed"...we've seen plenty of swings in the other direction. Oct 2006, 1997, 1988, and 1980 are just a few off the top of my head that were cold and then the winter stunk. On flip side, we have Oct 2012, 2010, 2007, 1995, 1971, 1970, and 1961 that were torches and gave us a great winter. I'm probably missing a couple. if I run the entire list of warm vs cold...cold comes out better by a little, but its pretty weak. October temps for New England are pretty far down the list of things to worry about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Typical. Weather stops north of Boston... We were just crushed here. Out and out blizzard in every sense of the word. LOL well I was just speaking for the SNE area. You guys had that nice OE/CF enhancement prior to anything which was a nice delight. I still can't believe the tree damage south of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 There is a correlation with colder Octobers to good winters here, but it is very weak. The correlation is much stronger to our south. Tony had pretty solid stats for Philly area. Up here, its more of "eh, it would be nice for October to come in cold, but its not needed"...we've seen plenty of swings in the other direction. Oct 2006, 1997, 1988, and 1980 are just a few off the top of my head that were cold and then the winter stunk. On flip side, we have Oct 2012, 2010, 2007, 1995, 1971, 1970, and 1961 that were torches and gave us a great winter. I'm probably missing a couple. if I run the entire list of warm vs cold...cold comes out better by a little, but its pretty weak. October temps for New England are pretty far down the list of things to worry about here. Just spit balling you would think people wouldn't want to "waste" a good colder pattern on October. These things tend to cycle anyway, it's hard to go wall to wall during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 LOL well I was just speaking for the SNE area. You guys had that nice OE/CF enhancement prior to anything which was a nice delight. I still can't believe the tree damage south of BOS. That OE/CF snow really jumped things up a notch. I think we thought we had more time before we were eyeball deep in the event, but that early day stuff just threw us right into the fire. I think I worked 8 AM until right around midnight, slept in Gray, then woke up at 5 and came back to work at 6 AM the next day. I do miss the wind across SE SNE. Just an area primed to high winds from both directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Just spit balling you would think people wouldn't want to "waste" a good colder pattern on October. These things tend to cycle anyway, it's hard to go wall to wall during winter. Cold Oct tends to correlate slightly warmer in Dec and slightly colder in January IIRC...I think some of that correlation comes form ENSO state. El Nino likes cold Oct and warmer Dec and La Nina tends to prefer the opposite. But its all pretty weak for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 That OE/CF snow really jumped things up a notch. I think we thought we had more time before we were eyeball deep in the event, but that early day stuff just threw us right into the fire. I think I worked 8 AM until right around midnight, slept in Gray, then woke up at 5 and came back to work at 6 AM the next day. I do miss the wind across SE SNE. Just an area primed to high winds from both directions. The OE stuff tends to happen preceding some of the larger events. Similar situation happened near BVY before the Jan 2005 Blizzard. As soon as those winds tend to turn more east and southeast from 950-900mb and it's about 12F at the surface...look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 The OE stuff tends to happen preceding some of the larger events. Similar situation happened near BVY before the Jan 2005 Blizzard. As soon as those winds tend to turn more east and southeast from 950-900mb and it's about 12F at the surface...look out. I'd like to look back at that again, because it certainly was a different wind direction than we're used to leading up to big coastals. Usually we would have some type of northerly drain, or at least northeasterly paralleling the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Tropical dew point of 65 out there... grand finale of deep, deep summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 1.55 inches of rain from that last nite. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Big downpour here earlier. Steady rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 I'd like to look back at that again, because it certainly was a different wind direction than we're used to leading up to big coastals. Usually we would have some type of northerly drain, or at least northeasterly paralleling the coast. Without looking I thought you had some sort of nrly wind at the surface. East winds a few miles offshore forced up and over the front near PWM. I bet 12z GYX sounding had east winds just aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 This cold shot the next 2 days looks to be the coldest yet. mid-upper 30's for hills tonight..and we stay in the 50's tomorrow with wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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