Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

September weather discussion

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Who is excited for another week of sunshine and beautiful weather!  Haha, boring as all lleh continues.  September may take the cake as the least interesting weather month of the year if there's no tropics.

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT SATURDAY...WELL...IF YOU ENJOYED THIS PAST
WEEK`S WEATHER THEN DO I HAVE A TREAT FOR YOU AS MOTHER NATURE
OFFERS A NEAR CARBON COPY PERFORMANCE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ACCOMPANYING MEAN ENSEMBLES ALL PAINT
A SIMILAR PICTURE IN SHOWING DEPARTING MARITIMES UPPER TROUGHING
BEING REPLACED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN
FACT...THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS LIKELY
WON`T AFFECT OUR REGION UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY...OR NEARLY A FULL WEEK
AFTER THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM. THUS WILL OFFER MAINLY CLR/SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND SLIGHTLY LARGER
THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WHICH WILL START OUT ON
THE COOL SIDE...AND THEN MODERATE BY 2-5 DEGREES EACH DAY. JUST
ANOTHER OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF WEATHER.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

The only excitement up this way will be tracking near freezing temperatures at work (as exciting as that is, lol)... could really go for a few flurries or some riming early Monday morning, lol.

 

attachicon.gifMonday.png

 

I don't mind the clear stretch. If I can get some moonless time next week I want to try some astro shots.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Long range, models are trying to retro the AK low to spike the PNA + and dig a trough in the east. GEFS and GEM ensembles seem most bullish with this, but the euro ensembles have a weak signal of it as well. We'll have to see how this goes as we head into the 1st week fo October.

Showing up in the op euro at long range now. Those ssta's will not be denied.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Who is excited for another week of sunshine and beautiful weather!  Haha, boring as all lleh continues.  September may take the cake as the least interesting weather month of the year if there's no tropics.

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 402 AM EDT SATURDAY...WELL...IF YOU ENJOYED THIS PAST

WEEK`S WEATHER THEN DO I HAVE A TREAT FOR YOU AS MOTHER NATURE

OFFERS A NEAR CARBON COPY PERFORMANCE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. LATEST

DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ACCOMPANYING MEAN ENSEMBLES ALL PAINT

A SIMILAR PICTURE IN SHOWING DEPARTING MARITIMES UPPER TROUGHING

BEING REPLACED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS

FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN

FACT...THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS LIKELY

WON`T AFFECT OUR REGION UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY...OR NEARLY A FULL WEEK

AFTER THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM. THUS WILL OFFER MAINLY CLR/SUNNY

SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND SLIGHTLY LARGER

THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WHICH WILL START OUT ON

THE COOL SIDE...AND THEN MODERATE BY 2-5 DEGREES EACH DAY. JUST

ANOTHER OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF WEATHER.

 

It's crazy how many top 10 days there have been, really since the heat broke in July.  20 ...may 30 of them?  Have to pack 30 days worth inside of 10 best days?  Kind of makes the 'top 10 day' theme obsolete.   

 

Was talking to another Met this morning and we were musing that there seems to be a kind of "event budget" in the atmosphere, where you can only have quiescence last so long and then something, somewhere, somehow has to trigger to balance the system.  Like you get too much middle latitude "ACE" built up.    

 

It's really been since Sandy that anything "exciting" has struck eastern N/A, and Sandy was just a pedestrian rainy windy day up N of the south coast.  Though we did get clocked by a couple powerful nor'easters up in SNE in the winter. 

 

About those...in deference to a kind of event frequency/budget .. those were quite local to SNE actually, and they were not quite in the top 5 in terms of hardship/impacting. In fairness, I don't think we can just look at snow totals and say, "Up!  it's a top 5," because while that may be true, what was the real "impact".

 

They were over and done with in 12 to 18 hours in a modern era of COC technologies, and snow removal.  A "blockbuster" nor'easter - imho - has to come like 1992 to make the event list.  Actually, I'd take that Halloween gig from a couple years ago as our last legit "event" before those two storms last Feb and Mar. 

 

We don't have to go as extreme as 1993, or 1978, or 1888 -- those ilk of events have a special stratospheric rank and respect.   I just don't think the two, twenty inch borderline blizzards last winter were extreme enough, or pervasively impacting enough.  I never saw 20" of snow become a non-factor faster in my life than that powder blizzard in February.  Poof...2 days and the roads were free and clear.  Come on, that doesn't count... Especially the winter on whole. Despite the lofty snow totals overall, the winter was a bit overrated.  There was bare ground in Ayer more than 50% of the time, in a year that boasted near or over record snow?!   How in F does that happen!? Jesus.  

 

Anyway, point being...we've been in quite the lull in frequency of important events, and it seems intuitive that if there were ever a climatology of such frequencies, it would tell us we are on average pushing it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It's crazy how many top 10 days there have been, really since the heat broke in July.  20 ...may 30 of them?  Have to pack 30 days worth inside of 10 best days?  Kind of makes the 'top 10 day' theme obsolete.   

 

Was talking to another Met this morning and we were musing that there seems to be a kind of "event budget" in the atmosphere, where you can only have quiescence last so long and then something, somewhere, somehow has to trigger to balance the system.  Like you get too much middle latitude "ACE" built up.    

 

It's really been since Sandy that anything "exciting" has struck eastern N/A, and Sandy was just a pedestrian rainy windy day up N of the south coast.  Though we did get clocked by a couple powerful nor'easters up in SNE in the winter. 

 

About those...in deference to a kind of event frequency/budget .. those were quite local to SNE actually, and they were not quite in the top 5 in terms of hardship/impacting. In fairness, I don't think we can just look at snow totals and say, "Up!  it's a top 5," because while that may be true, what was the real "impact".

 

They were over and done with in 12 to 18 hours in a modern era of COC technologies, and snow removal.  A "blockbuster" nor'easter - imho - has to come like 1992 to make the event list.  Actually, I'd take that Halloween gig from a couple years ago as our last legit "event" before those two storms last Feb and Mar. 

 

We don't have to go as extreme as 1993, or 1978, or 1888 -- those ilk of events have a special stratospheric rank and respect.   I just don't think the two, twenty inch borderline blizzards last winter were extreme enough, or pervasively impacting enough.  I never saw 20" of snow become a non-factor faster in my life than that powder blizzard in February.  Poof...2 days and the roads were free and clear.  Come on, that doesn't count... Especially the winter on whole. Despite the lofty snow totals overall, the winter was a bit overrated.  There was bare ground in Ayer more than 50% of the time, in a year that boasted near or over record snow?!   How in F does that happen!? Jesus.  

 

Anyway, point being...we've been in quite the lull in frequency of important events, and it seems intuitive that if there were ever a climatology of such frequencies, it would tell us we are on average pushing it. 

 

Well it is nice not to have mainstream media shoving AGW down our throats everytime a nor'easter or TC happens. Just a nice lull in the weather from what has been an active time over the last few years. Despite that, coastal SNE has had its share of storms and I think residents are enjoying any break they can get. Dec 2010 and this past Feb really crushed coastal areas. Weather has ebb and flows. It's important not to let a few years of active weather cloud judgments and cause a rush in thinking as to what caused it. Guess what, maybe that isn't the new norm quite yet? A convo for another day. Maybe the gtg.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Well it is nice not to have mainstream media shoving AGW down our throats everytime a nor'easter or TC happens. Just a nice lull in the weather from what has been an active time over the last few years. Despite that, coastal SNE has had its share of storms and I think residents are enjoying any break they can get. Dec 2010 and this past Feb really crushed coastal areas. Weather has ebb and flows. It's important not to let a few years of active weather cloud judgments and cause a rush in thinking as to what caused it. Guess what, maybe that isn't the new norm quite yet? A convo for another day. Maybe the gtg.

 

Yeah...and I'm speaking in a bit of hyperbole, too.   

 

I loved how some reputable study was just released that back-peddles the warming Earth leads to more catastrophic hurricane notion.   Ha, I banged that drum years ago.  The problem I have with AGW or GW or W or whatever the flavor of the doom of the day is ... it doesn't make a lot of mathematical sense that just because the Earth is warmer, that means bigger storms.

 

Why?  

 

People try to lead that argument with that tired and flawed logic, "A warmer environment means more energy for storms." 

 

EHHHHHHHH, WRONG!  

 

It isn't energy that drives storms, it is "potential energy;"   as in, if there are only weak thermodynamic gradients, there are weak events.  If there are steep thermodynamic gradients, there are stronger events.  That's how the physics works.  If the whole planet warms proportionally, the frequencies of big and small events doesn't change.  

 

Now, if someone can prove to us all that AGW or GW or W somehow causes a hot ocean up underneath steep ambient vertical tropical sounding, then of course.  But if the middle and upper troposphere are warm, there is no sink for heat, so the source stays capped.   That's the round about way of saying less mean buoyancy, leading to less storm dynamcis ...and that whole glassy eyed technical babble. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Long range, models are trying to retro the AK low to spike the PNA + and dig a trough in the east. GEFS and GEM ensembles seem most bullish with this, but the euro ensembles have a weak signal of it as well. We'll have to see how this goes as we head into the 1st week fo October.

A few if us have been calling for and expecting this.The potential is there for a Novemberesque first 2 weeks of Oct.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

It's really been since Sandy that anything "exciting" has struck eastern N/A, and Sandy was just a pedestrian rainy windy day up N of the south coast. Though we did get clocked by a couple powerful nor'easters up in SNE in the winter.

About those...in deference to a kind of event frequency/budget .. those were quite local to SNE actually, and they were not quite in the top 5 in terms of hardship/impacting. In fairness, I don't think we can just look at snow totals and say, "Up! it's a top 5," because while that may be true, what was the real "impact".

They were over and done with in 12 to 18 hours in a modern era of COC technologies, and snow removal. A "blockbuster" nor'easter - imho - has to come like 1992 to make the event list. Actually, I'd take that Halloween gig from a couple years ago as our last legit "event" before those two storms last Feb and Mar.

We don't have to go as extreme as 1993, or 1978, or 1888 -- those ilk of events have a special stratospheric rank and respect. I just don't think the two, twenty inch borderline blizzards last winter were extreme enough, or pervasively impacting enough. I never saw 20" of snow become a non-factor faster in my life than that powder blizzard in February. Poof...2 days and the roads were free and clear. Come on, that doesn't count... Especially the winter on whole. Despite the lofty snow totals overall, the winter was a bit overrated. There was bare ground in Ayer more than 50% of the time, in a year that boasted near or over record snow?! How in F does that happen!? Jesus.

Anyway, point being...we've been in quite the lull in frequency of important events, and it seems intuitive that if there were ever a climatology of such frequencies, it would tell us we are on average pushing it.

I don't know...those two events last winter were big impactors and I think you are selling the Feb event short.

I remember a video of Ryan walking to work through unplowed roads, and 24-36" in 24 hours is nothing to scoff at.

I think in today's age with plowing and such, that snowstorms are going to be real hard to come by that lead to multi-day impacts. I've never seen one up here no matter how much snow falls. Snow ends, you plow it, and go on with daily life.

Just about every single storm of 20"+ I've ever witnessed has become a non-factor like 12 hours after ending...even 2.5" QPF like Valentines Day 2007 and 30" dense synoptic wind-packed snow had pavement on the interstates up here within hours of the snow stopping. If you have the trucks, nothing will be like the storms of yore when roads were unplowed for a week or something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Will you call for warm weather again or any mild ups prior to May 1st?

 

It would be nice if he did. The only time he's ever gave in was in late Feb 2012 when he called for Morch. Sometimes he tries to make it seem like everyone will lose their snowpack if his is in danger. Usually he loses it and Will keeps his.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...