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September weather discussion

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
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What did the point and click forecast show? The ZFP is basically a legacy product at this point generated by computer with the same old spatial resolution issues it has always had (there will be times when it doesn't properly cover the temperature range of every hilltop and valley location). Sometimes it gets manually adjusted before issuance, many times not.

 

I'm not sure what the PnC had at 0115 but last night it had 49° for the low while we were in the low 50s.  I know it doesn't cover every location but it should cover the range of temperatures in the zone - not the extremes but the majority of the area.  Also, earlier in the night the ZFP had upper 40s and at 0115 it increased that to low 50s, just a few hours before morning and when temps were already in the mid-40s in Stafford Springs and Storrs, two of the largest population centers in Tolland County but they were in the 40s elsewhere as well.  I think someone just forgot to look at readings across the zone and it's going to hurt their verification scores.

 

The ZFP is usually the better product for precip and snowfall as it is manually manipulated.....might be different for temps.

 

Yeah, that's what I thought.  No big deal though, but it's not often you see a forecast be off by 10° 5 hours out.

 

You know it's boring if I'm pointing out stuff like this!

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I'm not sure what the PnC had at 0115 but last night it had 49° for the low while we were in the low 50s.  I know it doesn't cover every location but it should cover the range of temperatures in the zone - not the extremes but the majority of the area.  Also, earlier in the night the ZFP had upper 40s and at 0115 it increased that to low 50s, just a few hours before morning and when temps were already in the mid-40s in Stafford Springs and Storrs, two of the largest population centers in Tolland County but they were in the 40s elsewhere as well.  I think someone just forgot to look at readings across the zone and it's going to hurt their verification scores.

 

 

Yeah, that's what I thought.  No big deal though, but it's not often you see a forecast be off by 10° 5 hours out.

 

You know it's boring if I'm pointing out stuff like this!

You seem angry this morning. Enjoy the cool..it's the only cool you've got

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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You seem angry this morning. Enjoy the cool..it's the only cool you've got

Look how phase five MJO drops that trough just offshore , euro looks like one of Allans charts with MJO phase correlation. You maybe on to something with your cool call , super typhoon re-curve too, interesting stuff happening. I am almost willing to bet after the raging Pac jet breaks down we go to -EPO, holy crap if that happens. The correlation for great winters here with -EPO is much higher than PNA. rock on 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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So what are we looking at for Sunday? Just a few showers?

There's a huge swath of rain over Texas now, I'm assuming that will miss us to the south?

 

Looks like the forecast is for 1-2" across most of NY state and then diminishing as it heads eastward... though its hard to tell because BOX's southern zones are cut-off on this map from BTV.

 

Its centered on BTV but pulled from the national database...

 

575266_535221499883089_241506854_n.png

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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gfs ensembles look pretty chilly as we get into the first week of Oct. maybe someone with EC ens can comment on how they compare. 

 

gefs have a pretty stout area of + anomalies up over the DS region and some ridging out west. maybe we can get the first flakes into the GL and upslope greens/berks etc if that holds?

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Isotherm

Isotherm

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gfs ensembles look pretty chilly as we get into the first week of Oct. maybe someone with EC ens can comment on how they compare. 

 

gefs have a pretty stout area of + anomalies up over the DS region and some ridging out west. maybe we can get the first flakes into the GL and upslope greens/berks etc if that holds?

 

 

 

Yes the ECMWF ensembles have the short wave length trough early next week w/ the next major trough dumping into the West by D5-7. However, this trough is very progressive and we end up with a Gulf of Alaska deep trough, Western Ridge, West based -NAO blocking, and an Eastern trough by D 10. I see out to September 30th but given the pattern on the ECMWF, it would support a cooler than normal first week of October at this time.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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gfs ensembles look pretty chilly as we get into the first week of Oct. maybe someone with EC ens can comment on how they compare. 

 

gefs have a pretty stout area of + anomalies up over the DS region and some ridging out west. maybe we can get the first flakes into the GL and upslope greens/berks etc if that holds?

Yeah we're not surprised about this development at all. The signs have been there and it's nice to see the models picking up on it now. Might be some folks first shot at highs in the 40's and lows in upper 20's or something like that

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Yeah we're not surprised about this development at all. The signs have been there and it's nice to see the models picking up on it now. Might be some folks first shot at highs in the 40's and lows in upper 20's or something like that

i don't know. i'm just speculating. the source region doesn't look all that cold...so it's possible it's just seasonable temperatures. but for the lakes at least, maybe it becomes one of those deals where the highest peaks of the tug hill are in the 30s with some ugly mix or something. 

 

still a long way out anyway.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Me either but some sort of hybrid with the pattern evolving ???? Time will tell, Kev is scared to death of Oct snow so maybe a tropical entity will ease his fears.

 

Its hard to say what October will bring...the Euro ensembles looked a bit cooler this morning but still very zonal early in October. That leads me to believe that we will have a pretty boring pattern with intermittent cold snaps and warm spells...but not extreme in either direction. We'll see if that changes as we get closer.

As for October snow events...I'll just say these years: 2002, 2000, 1964, 1963, 1962, 1961, 1960. Repeat those years to yourself everytime you start thinking 2011, 2009, 2005, 1988, 1979.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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lol...i don't care what anyone says. i get very emotional about the weather. the day i don't, will probably be the day i'm laid to rest. 

 

I know...you jhave to laugh at those that claim they have no emotion about it. Emotion = passion and you don't just become a met because your guidance counselor said it would be a good fit for you. You do it because it's in your blood. Might be a little different for the OCM side since you do it because you have boobs.

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