CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 00z GEM ensemble is definitely colder than the GEFS. No surprise there given those charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Feeling like Fall this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 Kev there may be a fly in the ointment in favor of your cool Oct start, recurving Typhoon next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Kev there may be a fly in the ointment in favor of your cool Oct start, recurving Typhoon next weekYeah lots of signals there. We rock cold into Roctober Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Yeah lots of signals there. We rock cold into Roctober Rocking our way with zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Rocking our way with zonal flow. Yeah I don't see big cold...at least early on. That could obviously change the deeper into the month we go...but for now, its going to be transient airmasses and not really much potential for early arctic intrusions with a flat flow. That's fine with me, I don't really need frigid temps on 10/8...they might be more "interesting" after 10/15 where at least the interior can try for a snow event out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Top 10 day of the year... Not a single cloud. High of 76F off a low of 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Yeah I don't see big cold...at least early on. That could obviously change the deeper into the month we go...but for now, its going to be transient airmasses and not really much potential for early arctic intrusions with a flat flow. That's fine with me, I don't really need frigid temps on 10/8...they might be more "interesting" after 10/15 where at least the interior can try for a snow event out of it. Yeah agree. I don't see Rocktober happening early on..maybe that changes deeper into the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 Rocking our way with zonal flow. some GEFs hints at a stronger phase 5/6 MJO which would lead credence to Raleighs trough in our hood keeping us cooler but not much else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 some GEFs hints at a stronger phase 5/6 MJO which would lead credence to Raleighs trough in our hood keeping us cooler but not much else Well we probably will have some transient stuff..I mean the flow never is constantly zonal...just don't see a big change to cool at this time. Maybe this changes going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Top 10 day of the year... Not a single cloud. High of 76F off a low of 40F. Haven't seen a cloud since Monday, lol, crisp Autumn air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Possibly the best way to spice up an AFD when the weather is boring....BTV mets having some fun this afternoon... 000 FXUS61 KBTV 192043 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 443 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2013 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 356 PM EDT THURSDAY... IN HONOR OF INTERNATIONAL TALK LIKE A PIRATE DAY... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS GUNNA CONTINUE ACROSS TH` NORTH COUNTRY T`NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF TH` EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS TH` DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON TH` AFTSIDE O` TH` HIGH GUNNA CONTINUE T` MODERATE TEMPERATURES WIT OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNIN` AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOKIN` AT GENERALLY 40`S ACROSS TH` NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AN` EASTERN VERMONT...WIT 50`S IN TH` CHAMPLAIN AN` SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AS BE TH` CASE TH` PAST A PAIR NIGHTS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG GUNNA BE LIKELY IN TH` CLIMO FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY TH` WINOOSKI AN` CONNECTICUT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 356 PM EDT THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES T` DOMINATE TH` NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER FRIDEE AN` THROUGH MUCH O` FRIDEE NIGHTFALL WIT GLEAMIN`/CLEAR SKIES... SOUTHERLY WINDS AN` WARMIN` TEMPS. FRIDEE`S HIGHS BUMP UP ANOTHER WEE DEGREES INTO TH` MID T` UPPER 70S...WIT FRIDEE NIGHT LOWS IN TH` UPPER 40S ACROSS TH` DACKS AN` EASTERN VERMONT T` UPPER 50S IN TH` CHAMPLAIN N` SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. LATE FRIDEE NIGHT INTO SATTERDEE MORNIN`...UPPER TROUGH MOVIN` EASTWARD OU` O` TH` GREAT LAKES SHIFTS TOWARDS TH` NORTH COUNTRY WIT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPIN` AHEAD O` IT. PWATS SURGE T` 1-1.5" ON A MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL JET O` 30-40KTS ENHANCIN` LIFT ALONG TH` ATTENDIN` COLD FRONT. THAT SPAKE...BE HAVIN` MAINTAINED LIKELY T` LOW CATEGORICAL POPS FER TH` COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATTERDEE THROUGH SATTERDEE NIGHT. OVERALL QPF LOOKS T` BE ABOUT A HALF T` 1 INCH...AN` WIT DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS NAY WORRYIN` ABOUT ANY HYDRO ISSUES. TRICKY FORECAST THO BE TEMPS FER SATTERDEE AS TH` SLOW PROGRESSION O` TH` FRONT EASTWARD GUNNA ALLOW FER LONGER SURFACE HEATIN` ACROSS VT AS COMPARED T` NY. THINKIN` HIGHS ACROSS NY GUNNA MAINLY BE IN TH` 60S...BUT PUSH INTO TH` LOW T` MID 70S ACROSS VT. PRECIP LINGERS SATTERDEE NIGHTFALL WIT TH` FRONT PASSAGE WIT PLENTY O` CLOUD COVER MITIGATIN` COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND TH` FRONT. LOWS GUNNA BE FAIRLY CLOSE T` NORMAL...JUS` A WEE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AN` MAINLY IN TH` 50S. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 What in the sam hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 What in the sam hell? National Pirate Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 What in the sam hell? This weather pattern is just that boring, lol. I never thought about it, but its gotta get old writing AFD's during these spells when absolutely nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 National Pirate Day.aye matey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Kevin be fibbin' and telling stories of extreme weather he be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 BOX is so boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2013 Author Share Posted September 20, 2013 BOX is so boringThey don't call me Long John because I am so tall, lassie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 It's the kind of weather that is great, if you can get over the fact that it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Best sucky boring wx ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 I was wondering what was up with BDL's obs coming in at 65° last how and they dropped 5° in the past hour to 60°. That seems a bit much but that's what they recorded: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/obs/BDLobs.html Currently an unremarkable 53° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Unremarkable is definitely a good description for this weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 I was wondering what was up with BDL's obs coming in at 65° last how and they dropped 5° in the past hour to 60°. That seems a bit much but that's what they recorded: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/obs/BDLobs.html Currently an unremarkable 53° here. Sunset and decoupling...what's wrong with 5F in an hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Sunset and decoupling...what's wrong with 5F in an hour? Sunset I can understand and there were some stations that dropped 10° in that hour but BDL stayed warm and was the only station around it to drop 5° that hour. It was just odd that all the other stations at the time were around 60°, include the more urban HFD station but BDL stood out at 65°. There was nothing else to talk about so it was one of those what's up with that questions. Looks like it's 42° here now. So much for a forecasted low in the upper 40s. CEF looks like the coldest ASOS in SNE at 41°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 ... Looks like it's 42° here now. So much for a forecasted low in the upper 40s. ... Here's the last forecast posted which was updated at 0115 and was true on the hill tops but other readings around were already in the 40s and now in the low 40s: CTZ003-200800- TOLLAND CT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNION...VERNON 115 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013 .REST OF TONIGHT...CLEAR. PATCHY FOG. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Here's the last forecast posted which was updated at 0115 and was true on the hill tops but other readings around were already in the 40s and now in the low 40s: CTZ003-200800- TOLLAND CT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNION...VERNON 115 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013 .REST OF TONIGHT...CLEAR. PATCHY FOG. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 54.1 for the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Here's the last forecast posted which was updated at 0115 and was true on the hill tops but other readings around were already in the 40s and now in the low 40s: CTZ003-200800- TOLLAND CT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNION...VERNON 115 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013 .REST OF TONIGHT...CLEAR. PATCHY FOG. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. What did the point and click forecast show? The ZFP is basically a legacy product at this point generated by computer with the same old spatial resolution issues it has always had (there will be times when it doesn't properly cover the temperature range of every hilltop and valley location). Sometimes it gets manually adjusted before issuance, many times not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 The ZFP is usually the better product for precip and snowfall as it is manually manipulated.....might be different for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 43F for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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