Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 ggem is a full blown nor'easter. that would be a nice storm in january. When? 9/23-24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 The GGEM is like a destructive kid with matches and fireworks, everything gets blown up! In all seriousness though, all models at least show this to some extent. Looks like some good surf next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 When? 9/23-24? yeah pretty much. slow moving so lingers through the 25th as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 What about the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 euro's rather boring...slows up the front enough to ruin sunday and monday...then merges the energy offshore with some sort of tropical feature so Nova Scotia gets whacked...then the southern energy escapes eastward out to sea. it's not far off from something more entertaining but not much to be excited about on that evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Hopefully front flies thru like has been progged on Sat nite so Sunday afternoon is dry and sunny..Euro up to it's shenanigans again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Hopefully front flies thru like has been progged on Sat nite so Sunday afternoon is dry and sunny..Euro up to it's shenanigans again can always tell when you have plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Hopefully front flies thru like has been progged on Sat nite so Sunday afternoon is dry and sunny..Euro up to it's shenanigans again The GFS prefers Sunday too. I think the only model speeding things up was the NAM and I'd take that with a grain of salt 84 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 can always tell when you have plans. No plans..Just travel soccer at 5:00. BOX has been pegging Sat nite as shower time in western and central areas..hope it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 No plans..Just travel soccer at 5:00. BOX has been pegging Sat nite as shower time in western and central areas..hope it holds boundary really seems to be slowing down over the last few runs. system offshore isn't going to help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 IMBY question for Sunday AM-doing charity 20 mile bikeride-any thoughts as to if this is a steady rain or hit miss showers during Sunday AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 never ending storm on the GFS...reaches the coast on monday...is still there spinning east of Hatteras a week later. Awesome. Love those long duration events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 thats a ton of rain it shows ggem is a full blown nor'easter. that would be a nice storm in january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Wow, MVY had a freeze last night. 32F. Not bad for September 18th. Logon's low the night before last was a record according to Mr Bouchard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Wow, MVY had a freeze last night. 32F. Not bad for September 18th. Logon's low the night before last was a record according to Mr Bouchard Go back a few pages. It was the first September record low at BOS in 29 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Go back a few pages. It was the first September record low at BOS in 29 years. Yes. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41062-september-weather-discussion/?p=2413759 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Fyi, NCEP didn't include the GGEM and UKMET ...citing them as westerly outliers overall. What I am seeing in all guidance is evidence of typical transition season vagaries with the latter middle and extended ranges -- more so than normal variability. The 00z Euro and the 12z version are significantly variant in sensible weather impacts. In fact, pretty much could not be more different at 100 hours comparing relevant time intervals. One has a coastal impactor, the other had a beautiful early autumn polar high settling over in preparation for a significant warm-up. Meanwhile, the GFS did kind of the opposite, with the 00z being more progressive with the eastern trough, replacing eventually with mean ridging, and the 12z showing more troughing and surface response for a bit longer. Straight up blend probably takes a flat wave and garbage close but too far S other than to excite some onshore flow for 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2013 Author Share Posted September 18, 2013 Looking forward to the mini torch that October looks to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Looking forward to the mini torch that October looks to be.Raleigh wx says Oct looks cooler than normal FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Raleigh wx says Oct looks cooler than normal FTW. We want not too cold and not too warm...just seasonal average. Seasons as seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2013 Author Share Posted September 18, 2013 Raleigh wx says Oct looks cooler than normal FTW.In NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Raleigh wx says Oct looks cooler than normal FTW. I would favor warmer then normal but just fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 The Polar vortex retros into Siberia which means cold is limited here. Maybe it's only first half of the month, but that's what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 In NC?East coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2013 Author Share Posted September 18, 2013 The Polar vortex retros into Siberia which means cold is limited here. Maybe it's only first half of the month, but that's what I see.yep and load Siberia with snow. Radarman Eric has a good sense of how the above normal SSTs in the GOA lead to a strong Pac jet because of the temperature difference between the Arctic and Pac, this leads to a West trough East Ridge with a trough off to our East for the start of October. FWIW the LR progression of this pattern leads to an ultra sweet winter pattern with a pos PNA NEG NAO predominant winter. Load Siberia in October please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Those SSTs in the NPAC could easily change so I'm not a huge believer in them driving the pattern right now. Besides the general pattern for the last few years has been for the PV to be in other parts of the globe. But yeah, looks good for the start of Siberian snow pack which perhaps means more down the road for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 Those SSTs in the NPAC could easily change so I'm not a huge believer in them driving the pattern right now. Besides the general pattern for the last few years has been for the PV to be in other parts of the globe. But yeah, looks good for the start of Siberian snow pack which perhaps means more down the road for us.He makes good points about lag effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 He makes good points about lag effects. When you have water temps so cold to begin with, the amount of energy available isn't necessarily there to really drive the pattern. IMHO, those SSTs are the result of the pattern set forth and lack of recurring TCs. It has slowly cooled some, but still relatively warm. To me, this is probably the result of a larger scale issue. Expect those temps near AK to cool further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 When you have water temps so cold to begin with, the amount of energy available isn't necessarily there to really drive the pattern. IMHO, those SSTs are the result of the pattern set forth and lack of recurring TCs. It has slowly cooled some, but still relatively warm. To me, this is probably the result of a larger scale issue. Expect those temps near AK to cool further.exactly why you see that screaming jet setting up now through the first half of October, again rolling this forward leads to good times. Those temps have to cool with the Jet south of AK, common sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 exactly why you see that screaming jet setting up now through the first half of October, again rolling this forward leads to good times. Those temps have to cool with the Jet south of AK, common sense. The pattern going forward looks fine. I don't see mega torch and we should try to build snow in Siberia. Sounds good to me as a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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