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September weather discussion

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

lol this argument again about the ECM's amplitude in the long range.

 

Ha ha - I know he hates it.  It's unfortunately true.   Even Will mentioned it earlier in the season that the timing has been decent, but the amplitude too deep.  And the charts he just posted don't do anything to demo that one way or the other.  You have to show the "differential"  -- as in, compare the model to the verification.   And while doing so, not selectively pulling products that happen to support one's claims, as to do so is less than scientific and more at agenda.

 

Also, by pure coincidence, this last trough incursion did perform better in the 500 sigma, much to the chagrin of the discussion.  So using this go to say the Euro did awesome "again" isn't quite doing so in good faith.  

 

Lastly, the 850mb temperature layout is more cold biased than the 500mb trough depths. I was having this discussion with another Met that doesn't use this site, yesterday, and he's been all over that, too.  

 

Thus, I am wondering if the real issue in the model is the 850 sigma levels -- if that part of the troposphere is having some cool bias on-going, then it would tend to "pull" the total 500mb height(pressure level)  -- just a suggestion.  

 

It's not a giant issue.  I only brought it up ...way back in February for that matter, because there were more than just one or two phantom bombs on the extended time frames when the other models did not have the same feature, less even the transient patterns the Euro used to manufacture them.  And that really didn't go away heading into the summer.  It just manifested its self as to the discussion above.  

 

The other reason why it isn't a giant issue is ... duh duh duh dunnnn, no one should be using that facocta time range to begin with ... so it's a dumb rube-ish discussion.  Buuut, just the same, we are weather nuts and love to discuss this stuff, and seeing as the weather is SO overrun with entertaining events these days, ...what else is there to talk about.  

 

May be OT, but the mid month warm period is still there in the 40N and south latitudes, but what has gradually been introduced over the last 5 days of runs is a tendency for "buckling" the flow N of roughly 45N throughout Canada.  That could place transient +PP nodes through southeast Canada over the next 7 to 10 days, ..i.e., backdoor and N-door wedging.   

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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It's failed on as many extreme ridges as troughs. The problem is that from time to time we all post weenie d10 runs for a LOL. I've witnessed no consistent bias.

 

You know ... it's  good point, and I'd add that since New England happens to be sitting in the statistically static negative spatial node of the longer term PNAP mean, that may be why these troughs are more noticeable -- simply put, we are conditionally prone to seeing that aspect first. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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It's failed on as many extreme ridges as troughs. The problem is that from time to time we all post weenie d10 runs for a LOL. I've witnessed no consistent bias.

he has been shown over and over and explained to by many but he persists. The charts I supposedly cherry picked match up pretty well with reality. Seems like once he made an assumption he has to stick with it. Since July the Euro has gotten 5h correct more than less.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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he has been shown over and over and explained to by many but he persists. The charts I supposedly cherry picked match up pretty well with reality. Seems like once he made an assumption he has to stick with it. Since July the Euro has gotten 5h correct more than less.

 

I didn't say you cherry picked.  I said, if you are going to do a comparative analysis ...which you have not, you need to be unbiased.  

 

I don't merely "persist" Steve.   I'm right.   Too much amplitude, correct about timing.

 

I think what is really at stake here is that it's not getting AS cold as some people want it to, soon enough.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Near record cold tomorrow night...brrrr. Forecast for our first freeze with a low of 31F locally.

From BTV:

*** Near Record Lows Tomorrow Night ***

Here's something we have not had many of in recent years...record lows. A cold front will move through tonight bringing some light rain and much cooler air. Highs will only make it into the 50s tomorrow. Then high pressure will take over, skies will clear and temperatures will plummet into the mid 20s to mid 30s Monday night.

1186693_532949570110282_1317619607_n.png

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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It's coming...slowly but surely. The cold season is coming. BTV plenty aware of the fact that warm records lately have out numbered cold records by like 4:1, lol. But they have high confidence in growing season ending for many tomorrow night.

AFD:

"Blended model mean 850 mb temperatures fall slowly but steadily through the day to around 0c by early evening and with modestly gusty northwestely flow there will definitely be a fall-like chill in the air. Given these factors have leaned on the colder side of available temperature guidance showing readings climbing only some 3 to 7 degrees above overnight lows...or topping out mainly in the 50s. A few spots in the northern mountains may struggle to hit 50 while afternoon downslope flow should push some locales across southeastern Vermont into the lower 60s. Skies then gradually trend clear by Monday night as winds slowly relax and strong 1030 hpa Canadian high pressure builds into the region. With ideal radiative effects expected...widespread frosty to freezing conditions are expected in most areas away from Lake Champlain. No headlines with this package...but confidence is high that the growing season will end for many by Tuesday morning. In fact a few spots may approach record lows for the date...not a topic discussed in our area too often these days."

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Those forecast mins don't look close to record lows to me.

&& Climate... below are record low temperatures for Tuesday September 17. Locn record date kbtv 34f 1961 kmpv 29f 1948 kmss 30f 1973 k1v4 29f 1959 &&

" Record low here at BTV is 34 and we will make a run at it, but probably just fall short a degree or two."

Looks like 1V4 has a 30F forecast and record of 29F. Montpelier is forecast 31F and record is 29F. The upstate NY sites look closer like Massena is forecast to tie the record low.

Maybe they will drop another degree off tomorrow or something, but they are all within 0-2 degrees of the records with the exception of Burlington.

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NorEaster17

NorEaster17

Posted
Posted

Protect what you can. NY/VT Growing season might end in 36hrs.

National Weather Service Text Product Display

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013
 

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES THEN GRADUALLY TREND CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY RELAX AND STRONG 1030 HPA CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH IDEAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD FROSTY TO FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. NO HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE GROWING SEASON WILL END FOR MANY BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT A FEW SPOTS MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE...NOT A TOPIC DISCUSSED IN OUR AREA TOO OFTEN THESE DAYS. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE...ESP IN THE MILDER LOCATIONS.
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dendrite

dendrite

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&& Climate... below are record low temperatures for Tuesday September 17. Locn record date kbtv 34f 1961 kmpv 29f 1948 kmss 30f 1973 k1v4 29f 1959 &&

" Record low here at BTV is 34 and we will make a run at it, but probably just fall short a degree or two."

Looks like 1V4 has a 30F forecast and record of 29F. Montpelier is forecast 31F and record is 29F. The upstate NY sites look closer like Massena is forecast to tie the record low.

Maybe they will drop another degree off tomorrow or something, but they are all within 0-2 degrees of the records with the exception of Burlington.

I guess I expected colder. CON's record for 9/17 is 28F. I guess near record is a subjective term too.
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powderfreak

powderfreak

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I guess I expected colder. CON's record for 9/17 is 28F. I guess near record is a subjective term too.

Yeah I'm not sure what constitutes near record (within 3F of a record?)...I mean you say you are expecting "record cold" if you forecast to tie or break a record, but "near record" if its supposed to come within a few degrees?

And yeah, I thought records would be more like 25-28F, but it looks like its more like "near 30" degrees is around record territory.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

So I took a look at the Montpelier/MPV records and yeah they vary quite a but this time of year.

Tomorrow's record low is 25F, but Tuesday's is 29F...there's a string of 29s that seem vulnerable, then on the 24th of Sept the record is 20F and all the end of the month is low 20s so it falls off quickly.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

39F, upslope rain falling sideways, NW wind 20G30. Brutal 4-wheeler ride to the upper mountain this morning. Hat and gloves and full body rain suit...thank you Carhartts for making bomb-proof work gear.

Upslope precip keeps redeveloping over the ski resort, but I don't think it will cool enough, fast enough to see any flakes. Still looks like +1 to +3 right now at H85.

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