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September weather discussion

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

Since I have the daily BDL data, I took a look at some of the hottest September days.  The odd thing that I noticed was the number of years ending in 3 that were hot.  I guess we continued that trend yesterday.  9/11 also shows up a lot too for some reason.  Go figure.

 

Any way, the highest heat index that I could find for yesterday was 103°.  Here's how that compares with some other hot September days:

 

9/2/1953 Max heat index of 110°

9/3/1973 107°

9/4/1973 107°

9/1/1961 105°

9/8/2007 105°

9/11/1983 103°

9/11/2013 103°

9/22/2013 102° (for reference)

 

Here's some dates with dp's mid-upper 70s and highs in the 90s:

 

9/3/1993 - 79°

9/6/2008 - 76°

9/3/1973, 9/6/1973, 9/16/1991, 9/6/1999, 9/9/2004 - 75°

9/5/1961, 9/1 & 2/1973, 9/4/1973 - 74°

9/22/1970, 9/10/1989, 9/8/2007 (and several others) - 73°

 

The latest I saw a high in the mid-90s with a dp's in the mid-70s is 9/22/1970.

 

Interesting.  Your data is a lot different than what weather underground has. 

 

Using that data set:

The 95/72 we put up yesterday works out to 104 HI.

9/4/73 case maxed at 96/68, which comes out to 101. 

9/3/73 looks like it also did a 95/72 briefly. 

9/1/61 has 96/70 = 103 

9/8/07 is well short, 94/67 = 98

9/11/83 has 99/62 = 101

 

-edit if I use the daily high dewpoints and temps I get the numbers you came up with, but in general the dews mixed out a bit at peak heating, moreso than yesterday at any rate.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Interesting.  Your data is a lot different than what weather underground has. 

 

Using that data set:

The 95/72 we put up yesterday works out to 104 HI.

9/4/73 case maxed at 96/68, which comes out to 101. 

9/3/73 looks like it also did a 95/72 briefly. 

9/1/61 has 96/70 = 103 

9/8/07 is well short, 94/67 = 98

9/11/83 has 99/62 = 101

 

-edit if I use the daily high dewpoints and tems I get the numbers you came up with, but in general the dews mixed out a bit at peak heating, moreso than yesterday at any rate.

Good stuff. Thanks..Hopefully Will's feelings aren't hurt and he apologizes

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Good stuff. Thanks..Hopefully Will's feelings aren't hurt and he apologizes

 

 

They were 100/70 in the '53 heatwave. That blows yesterday away. Their high was actually 101F but it wasn't recorded during the hourly ob so we don't have the dewpoint data for when it got that warm.

 

 

Yesterday was quite impressive for September for heat/humidity combo, nobody is arguing that. But no need to embellish it as unprecedented. I'm sure you won't apologize though for being wrong. :lol:

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

Interesting.  Your data is a lot different than what weather underground has. 

 

Using that data set:

The 95/72 we put up yesterday works out to 104 HI.

9/4/73 case maxed at 96/68, which comes out to 101. 

9/3/73 looks like it also did a 95/72 briefly. 

9/1/61 has 96/70 = 103 

9/8/07 is well short, 94/67 = 98

9/11/83 has 99/62 = 101

 

-edit if I use the daily high dewpoints and temps I get the numbers you came up with, but in general the dews mixed out a bit at peak heating, moreso than yesterday at any rate.

 

The data is from WU and I downloaded it back in July when we were talking about the high dp stretch.  I put it up on my Storm Monitoring site so if anyone wants to look at it, they can:

 

http://www.stormmonitoring.com/archive/

 

You are correct in that the calculations were based off the max dp but you've already re-done the calculations.  I didn't have time to pull up each day at the time.

 

FWIW, I'm not sure where you're getting a HI of 104° for yesterday.  The highest I saw in the hourlies was 103°:

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=RWR&format=CI&version=18&glossary=1 (and the previous hour)

 

The statement was that it had never been in the mid-90s with mid-70s dp's before (unprecedented) but has been in that range as late as 9/22 (1970).  The high was 93 and the dewpoint was 73.  Yesterday's highest dp during the heat of the day was 74° so it has been very close.  It's been hotter later and we've had higher dp's later, not exactly at the same time but within the same ballpark.

 

Also, that data only goes back to 1949 so I can't speak for prior dates.  I really object to terms like "it's never happened" or "hottest ever", "unprecedented", etc. because we don't don't everything.  We should say, on record or in our lifetime.  And, this is only one airport so I can't speak for other tarmacs in the SNE.  When you start throwing in all those qualifiers, it really diminishes the statement that this was unprecendeted.  To be honest, I'm more impressed with 99° in 1983 than I was with yesterday.  I'm also more impressed with multiple days with highs in the 90s and dps in the 70s that has occurred before.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

They were 100/70 in the '53 heatwave. That blows yesterday away. Their high was actually 101F but it wasn't recorded during the hourly ob so we don't have the dewpoint data for when it got that warm.

 

 

Yesterday was quite impressive for September for heat/humidity combo, nobody is arguing that. But no need to embellish it as unprecedented. I'm sure you won't apologize though for being wrong. :lol:

 

What he said.  I agree 100%.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

What he said.  I agree 100%.

 

 

I guess I"m just a stickler of claiming unprecedent and "never happened" and such because in my mind it cheapens the feeling for when we actually do get an unprecedented or truly record breaking event like a December 1989 cold outbreak or a July 1995 heatwave or a TC that somehow is worse than 1938 or a December 2006 torch (not that I really enjoyed a torch that time of year).

 

But that doesn't mean that the other events are not impressive or rare.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

The data is from WU and I downloaded it back in July when we were talking about the high dp stretch.  I put it up on my Storm Monitoring site so if anyone wants to look at it, they can:

 

http://www.stormmonitoring.com/archive/

 

You are correct in that the calculations were based off the max dp but you've already re-done the calculations.  I didn't have time to pull up each day at the time.

 

FWIW, I'm not sure where you're getting a HI of 104° for yesterday.  The highest I saw in the hourlies was 103°:

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=RWR&format=CI&version=18&glossary=1 (and the previous hour)

 

The statement was that it had never been in the mid-90s with mid-70s dp's before (unprecedented) but has been in that range as late as 9/22 (1970).  The high was 93 and the dewpoint was 73.  Yesterday's highest dp during the heat of the day was 74° so it has been very close.  It's been hotter later and we've had higher dp's later, not exactly at the same time but within the same ballpark.

 

Also, that data only goes back to 1949 so I can't speak for prior dates.  I really object to terms like "it's never happened" or "hottest ever", "unprecedented", etc. because we don't don't everything.  We should say, on record or in our lifetime.  And, this is only one airport so I can't speak for other tarmacs in the SNE.  When you start throwing in all those qualifiers, it really diminishes the statement that this was unprecendeted.  To be honest, I'm more impressed with 99° in 1983 than I was with yesterday.  I'm also more impressed with multiple days with highs in the 90s and dps in the 70s that has occurred before.

 

I just entered the 95/72 into the HPC's Heat Index Calculation applet and it spit out 104.  It's possible they rounded up. 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/heatindex.shtml

 

Agreed about how incredible 9/22/70 was.  Despite being the highest heat index we've recorded on our local weather station in 5 years of operations, the heat itself is less notable than the time of year, making that 1970 all the more impressive.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

I guess I"m just a stickler of claiming unprecedent and "never happened" and such because in my mind it cheapens the feeling for when we actually do get an unprecedented or truly record breaking event like a December 1989 cold outbreak or a July 1995 heatwave or a TC that somehow is worse than 1938 or a December 2006 torch (not that I really enjoyed a torch that time of year).

 

But that doesn't mean that the other events are not impressive or rare.

 

Sure doesn't.  I'm sensitive to it from a wx record point of view.  I've never really liked someone saying that "we've never had weather like this before" because the fact is, we really don't know if that's true or not.  Like you said, when you have something special happen, it just cheapens the real event.

 

I've always been a numbers man.  I try to let the numbers or facts speak for themselves.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

I just entered the 95/72 into the HPC's Heat Index Calculation applet and it spit out 104.  It's possible they rounded up. 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/heatindex.shtml

 

Agreed about how incredible 9/22/70 was.  Despite being the highest heat index we've recorded on our local weather station in 5 years of operations, the heat itself is less notable than the time of year, making that 1970 all the more impressive.

 

That's interesting.  WU must use the same formula that they use for the hourly roundup because it was 103 but I see what you mean.  I used the HPC's calculator too in my original post because my other calculator uses humidity.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Petty back and forth...  but yesterday was a torrid misery, period. 

 

Not taking sides, where we were in Ayer, everyone I talked to hated it and thought they were in the colon of a buffalo.   Worcester and Boston put up a +16F for the day, and did it DPs in excess of 70.  That is extreme, without discussion. 

 

That may be the last of it for this year, though.  

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Petty back and forth...  but yesterday was a torrid misery, period. 

 

Not taking sides, where we were in Ayer, everyone I talked to hated it and thought they were in the colon of a buffalo.   Worcester and Boston put up a +16F for the day, and did it DPs in excess of 70.  That is extreme, without discussion. 

 

That may be the last of it for this year, though.  

 

it's clad. no doubt. 

 

post-218-0-81468100-1379000148_thumb.jpg

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Sure doesn't. I'm sensitive to it from a wx record point of view. I've never really liked someone saying that "we've never had weather like this before" because the fact is, we really don't know if that's true or not. Like you said, when you have something special happen, it just cheapens the real event.

I've always been a numbers man. I try to let the numbers or facts speak for themselves.

Agreed. I hate the "unprecedented" comments every time something noteworthy comes along and might set a daily record for something.

Most of us are well aware of what the numbers mean, so just post the data and we can tell what's going on there.

Now if yesterday happened on October 11th....

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Petty back and forth... but yesterday was a torrid misery, period.

Not taking sides, where we were in Ayer, everyone I talked to hated it and thought they were in the colon of a buffalo. Worcester and Boston put up a +16F for the day, and did it DPs in excess of 70. That is extreme, without discussion.

That may be the last of it for this year, though.

Colon of a buffalo....that might be the best phrase I've heard in a while, lol.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

much tamer 14-16 at 850 for a day then congrats all of Maine Nh, nice recurve too.

 

 

Yeah but unfortunately, that trough is highly suspect...  

 

Also, the contouring for the Euro has the 850s closer to 17C, for D7.   Granted, nothing like yesterday, but the mid season warmth has been heavily signaled.  The Euro tends to take any "dent" or weak-ish S/W that is up over Manitoba on D7, then overly digs them by D9.  It's doing that here, again..  I don't doubt that there could be a trough there; in fact, the Euro's actually pretty good with "timing", but the amplitude is suspect here.   Prolly be a fropa with some convection during an overall above normal period.     

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Actually, it's not...  huh.  I wonder why the contours on the synoptic charts are over.... oh I see why.  heh, my bad.   

 

Actually my friend just sent me the machine numbers from the Euro:  16.4C is max on D7.   


WED 12Z 18-SEP  11.5    10.4    1024      75      27    0.00     584     563   
WED 18Z 18-SEP  21.6    12.4    1022      46      15    0.00     585     566   
THU 00Z 19-SEP  16.6    13.9    1020      73      17    0.00     584     567   
THU 06Z 19-SEP  15.8    14.4    1018      85      89    0.00     583     568   
THU 12Z 19-SEP  18.1    16.4    1016      84      76    0.00     583     569
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