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September weather discussion


Ginx snewx

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I noticed MWN recorded its first measurable of the season with 0.2" of ice/snow reported during the previous 24 hours on this morning's F-6 data.

 

Gotta love mountain weather... big changes coming over the next 24 hours, too.

 

"Mild and moist air will continue to stream in tomorrow, sending the mercury well into the 50s, and prompting intermittent fog to return. Winds will abruptly ramp up, becoming sustained at around hurricane force by afternoon, with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing."

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 This may have more impact than the July heat, which came on a bit more gradually.  This is like wall-o'-heat stuff.   Visualizing 84'ish tomorrow ... then the temp doesn't fall much tomorrow night and it's still in the mid 70s with off-shore flow at Logan.   Then we gain 7 per hour after sun-up, Wed.  Woof!

 
Boston record of 99F would be safe, but I am not certain how/why the NAM MOS thinks FIT will put up a 97, yet keeps BOS at 93 on a west wind/same air mass.  That's dubious.  Either knock back FIT or add a bunch to BOS.
 
It should be noted also that both MAV and MEX are less extreme with the heat.  
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Looking at the coop data from my town for 9/1983, after 9/11/1983 the weather looks rather pleasant.  11 of the remaining 19 days had lows in the 30s, 4 being <32°.  Kevin would even like it because there were two days with highs in the 90s and the rest of us would be happy with the lows in the 40s those days.

 

So, if it's going to be hot Wednesday ala 1983 style, hopefully the rest of the month will follow suit.

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 This may have more impact than the July heat, which came on a bit more gradually.  This is like wall-o'-heat stuff.   Visualizing 84'ish tomorrow ... then the temp doesn't fall much tomorrow night and it's still in the mid 70s with off-shore flow at Logan.   Then we gain 7 per hour after sun-up, Wed.  Woof!

 
Boston record of 99F would be safe, but I am not certain how/why the NAM MOS thinks FIT will put up a 97, yet keeps BOS at 93 on a west wind/same air mass.  That's dubious.  Either knock back FIT or add a bunch to BOS.
 
It should be noted also that both MAV and MEX are less extreme with the heat.  

 

The NAM appears to back winds around to the SE for a time across northeast Mass. MOS reflects the same thing at KBOS:

wind54.gif

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Euro has probably the warmest 850 temps I've seen all summer, especially when taking into account the real estate the +20C 850mb contour encompasses. Sept 11 sun certainly makes it perhaps a few ticks cooler than if this were to happen in July, but mid 90s would be achieved I think in favored torch spots.

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we go 90-95 wednesday to struggling to 60F on saturday?  euro has a lot of light precip on saturday with the cold pool overhead so likely a lot of cloud cover at least. it's reflected nicely in the 2-m temps which have most areas <60F all day. 

 

 

What a crappy Saturday its showing. I hope its sunnier so we get that warmer feel even with the crisp airmass.

 

Total shock going from today, to 90s in many spots back to an even colder airmass on the weekend. That back and forth pattern that has been advertised for a while now is coming to fruition. Even some hints at more warm weather next week.

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Word on the Euro! 

 

Jesus what a blow torch dragon fart day that's going to be in this depiction.  One possible saving grace is that the 700mb RH depicted below, left, being moderate may argue for some clouds in the area, and that would certainly take the edge off.   Otherwise, I don't care if it's Sept 11 or not, west wind drilling the bottom of an EML column downslope is going send the temperature well above 95

 

f48.gif

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Euro now biting harder on the Sept 15-20 positive departure pattern. 

 

Thing is ... I cannot condone THAT depiction outright, when I find that the Euro has a few specific accuracy issues I've noted in the past, wrt to the temporal boundary between the late middle and extended ranges.  To do so would be hypocritical.  However, in this case, I do see some outside--> in looking reason to extend some confidence, nonetheless.

 

For one, this run is not alone.  The GFS has been pounding this idea for day's worth of runs now.   For another, the NAO has been positive and remains that way in the means of the GEFs for the foreseable future.  It's actually never set very well will me that much troughing at all has been verifying given to that factor -- but then again, that factor is not a lone correlator.  For those that think the Pacific is less effectual on the pattern in the summer, heh.  

 

Sparing that digression ... the PNA is dropping, and the preferred correlation to that teleconnector would be an eventual declination in the western N/A heights medium.  These runs fit these larger scale mass field mode changes.   

 

Short version,  I think for a week or so we lose the repeating cool shots and go back positive more consistently.  How so depends -- 

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