Turtle Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 We saw quite a few couplets in radial velocity using the DOW radar during lake-effect snow bands. There's a good chance that at least a few were waterspouts. Also, a situation with very unstable low-level lapse rates. Here's a radar image from our paper, which can be found here for more information http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00226.1. NICE!! Those DOWs can really do a good job seeing those weak rotations. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Interesting, remains me of arctic lows, those small but intense vortexes that can develop as very cold lapse rates flow out over unfrozen seas at high latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 It'll be interesting to see if/when the Euro backs off this week. D7 is still outside it's wheel-house, and smack dab in the middle of it's trough depth bias. It'll likely be right about the timing of the break, but I have a tough time believing it will be right about the amplitude of the trough ... and consequently the magnitude of lower tropospheric cold transport, which would necessarily be over done in tandem. Then, it appears that the mid-west ridge may try to reposition into the OV after next weekend. That's been flagged for many cycles now, and could herald in a a warmer than normal week. I hope not. I'm seriously tired of summer and I hope it's gone until at least next May, but that won't happen, will it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 NICE!! Those DOWs can really do a good job seeing those weak rotations. --Turtle I was watching the video of that L. Ch. spout and you can see the water was steaming quite a bit. I wonder if that was contributing to lowered lcls, helping to draw the rotation closer to the surface. If you folks ever get a chance, I hope you can witness arctic sea smoke on near calm mornings during frigid air masses, at sun up. The sun's morning rays cut sideways through steam dogs as they dance among the surrounding steam shrouds, sometimes colliding and merging to form towering steam dogs that can go up over a 100 foot. With corpuscular type sunlight back lighting them, it's really a just a geeks wet dream to bare witness - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Are you wearing a plaid skirt or did you mean 'hilt'? 69.6/50 Gotta get those last few weeks of leg pelt growth in before long pants season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Looks cold in KBUF for us next weekend. 40's Saturday for highs lol Lake Erie temp is 71F, maybe there will be WSW flow and you'll get some lake effect convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 I was watching the video of that L. Ch. spout and you can see the water was steaming quite a bit. I wonder if that was contributing to lowered lcls, helping to draw the rotation closer to the surface. If you folks ever get a chance, I hope you can witness arctic sea smoke on near calm mornings during frigid air masses, at sun up. The sun's morning rays cut sideways through steam dogs as they dance among the surrounding steam shrouds, sometimes colliding and merging to form towering steam dogs that can go up over a 100 foot. With corpuscular type sunlight back lighting them, it's really a just a geeks wet dream to bare witness - We get the sea smoke over Lake Champlain several times a winter and its always awesome. I saw some awesome displays at first light when I was at University of Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Lake Erie temp is 71F, maybe there will be WSW flow and you'll get some lake effect convectionA few waterspouts turning into Tor's as they move into Orchard Park and directly across Ralph Wilson Stadium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 We get the sea smoke over Lake Champlain several times a winter and its always awesome. I saw some awesome displays at first light when I was at University of Vermont. For me it was Rockport Harbor, Rockport Mass up at the very eastern tip of Cape Ann. It was the winter of 1984-1985. There was a pretty good cold snap in that winter. Surreal. The sky was pure blue overhead, and the sun was about 1/2 hour after rising and was cutting through the steam as it lifted off the near calm sea surface. Much of it rose and dissipated; still, much of it organized into "pipe" structures. It's pretty amazing. I think the temp was right around 0 at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 A few waterspouts turning into Tor's as they move into Orchard Park and directly across Ralph Wilson Stadium Enjoy the hype. It's the only hype you've got... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 A bit humid out there tonight with dews near 60. Deep, deep summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 The 00Z GFS is taking the cool down seriously for Next Weekend for much of NNE/SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 The 00Z GFS has upper 20s (Higher Elevations of Southwestern NY/Northwestern) and up to the mid 30 in the lower elevations of the same locations and up into the NNE. 40s elsewhere. This is by next Saturday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Up over 4* from the overnight lof of 55.1. 59.4/56, nice breeze this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 00z GFS with quite the cold shot behind the fropa - drives the 0C 850 line almost to the PA / WVA border... must be a trough bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Heading to the Franklin County Fair today, ftl. Highs in the mid-60's ftw (though will likely be closer to 70 at the fairgrounds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 00z GFS with quite the cold shot behind the fropa - drives the 0C 850 line almost to the PA / WVA border... must be a trough bias I find it interesting that the ensembles have been very muted with these trough pushes, but did have the warm push coming this week. If you look back beyond a week ago (and I feel like this started with the first cold push last week), the signal for a trough was there..but the magnitude was missed. Of course ensembles are always more smoothed out as you go out in time..but something I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I find it interesting that the ensembles have been very muted with these trough pushes, but did have the warm push coming this week. If you look back beyond a week ago (and I feel like this started with the first cold push last week), the signal for a trough was there..but the magnitude was missed. Of course ensembles are always more smoothed out as you go out in time..but something I noticed. Lots of verifcation assessment needed as we head into the cold season.......the rose has fallen off the EC this summer. Will it regain its mojo for winter events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I find it interesting that the ensembles have been very muted with these trough pushes, but did have the warm push coming this week. If you look back beyond a week ago (and I feel like this started with the first cold push last week), the signal for a trough was there..but the magnitude was missed. Of course ensembles are always more smoothed out as you go out in time..but something I noticed. i wonder if it's related to the narrow wavelength of the trough. do you get spaghetti plots for ec ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 i wonder if it's related to the narrow wavelength of the trough. do you get spaghetti plots for ec ens? Yeah and they were quite messy...so there you go. Explains the more smoothed out look. Sometimes when I see a trough but it "looks" mild...I just take it to mean we could see a 1-2 day push of cooler air and then a mild up. Sometimes it works, sometimes not...but seems to be the case here. Some decent spread for next weekend too, but the op seems to be one of the coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 At some point the temp swings will mellow out and fall will be fall Looking forward to the first day with highs in the 50s. Maybe late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Lots of verifcation assessment needed as we head into the cold season.......the rose has fallen off the EC this summer. Will it regain its mojo for winter events? Actually this was for all ensembles. A while back I used to mention how sometimes the op runs can hint at or tell you something about the pattern coming up. They can be on the extreme side post 7-8 days out, but if they start insisting on cold or warm pushes...then perhaps they are on to something. Ensembles still are the way to go, but there are ways to gather clues about the pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Actually this was for all ensembles. A while back I used to mention how sometimes the op runs can hint at or tell you something about the pattern coming up. They can be on the extreme side post 7-8 days out, but if they start insisting on cold or warm pushes...then perhaps they are on to something. Ensembles still are the way to go, but there are ways to gather clues about the pattern coming up. Thanks. Quickly turned into a beautiful day. Sun with racing clouds. Lots of 'weak leaves' blowing off the trees. 60.7/58, gusting to 18mph; not bad a 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I find it interesting that the ensembles have been very muted with these trough pushes, but did have the warm push coming this week. If you look back beyond a week ago (and I feel like this started with the first cold push last week), the signal for a trough was there..but the magnitude was missed. Of course ensembles are always more smoothed out as you go out in time..but something I noticed. Definitely the case. When I started shifts 5 days ago, it was only a handful of Euro EPS members that had a cool look to them. By Thursday it was a much stronger signal that this cold push would be as cold or colder than earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Lots of verifcation assessment needed as we head into the cold season.......the rose has fallen off the EC this summer. Will it regain its mojo for winter events? Warm season is always difficult for the models. None of them really do convection all that well, and it can mean big downstream differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Warm season is always difficult for the models. None of them really do convection all that well, and it can mean big downstream differences. Thanks--hopefully the GFS will shine this year. I can't stay up for the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Thanks--hopefully the GFS will shine this year. I can't stay up for the EC.I suspect it will be like any other winter. The euro will win most of the battles and kick arse in the H5 scores, but the few times it loses on a storm weenies will say it isn't as good as it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I suspect it will be like any other winter. The euro will win most of the battles and kick arse in the H5 scores, but the few times it loses on a storm weenies will say it isn't as good as it used to be. It was always better back in the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Man the temp drop has been impressive this morning... MVL here has gone from 57F at 9am, to 51F at the 11am reading! Probably not getting out of the 50s today, but can't believe it's near 50F now late-morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Sky got dark, wind picked up But nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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