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September weather discussion

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Better than the crap we had this summer. GFS tries to advect lapse rates in Wed as well, albeit more modest. We'll see. Too bad this couldn't have happened 2 months ago.

 

Edit: beat me to it.

 

I'm on the ball today, complete with graphics. I'll be interested to see the SREF severe probabilities tomorrow once it is more in range. Extrapolation looks favorable, but we know how that goes.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I can't believe I'm about to do this but, a good chunk of EML breaks off an advects with the ridge according to the Euro. Better looking set up than much of the summer.

It was funny that last week had fairly steep lapse rates during the SE CT severe... Way more impressive than anything else this year so far. September is the new June?

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

It was funny that last week had fairly steep lapse rates during the SE CT severe... Way more impressive than anything else this year so far. September is the new June?

 

Yeah, 12z OKX sounding was right around 6.5 C/km, with a good chunk of that CAPE in the hail growth zone (as you pointed out in your blog).

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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Yeah, 12z OKX sounding was right around 6.5 C/km, with a good chunk of that CAPE in the hail growth zone (as you pointed out in your blog).

 

Yup 6.8 C/km on morning sounding and I think the RUC sounding for GON around the time of the storm had 7.2 or 7.3 C/km 500-700mb. 

 

One thing that was a little odd the whole day was how much the models underdid the instability actually present. 6z models and 12z initializations had nowhere near the amount of CAPE observed at OKX. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Yup 6.8 C/km on morning sounding and I think the RUC sounding for GON around the time of the storm had 7.2 or 7.3 C/km 500-700mb. 

 

One thing that was a little odd the whole day was how much the models underdid the instability actually present. 6z models and 12z initializations had nowhere near the amount of CAPE observed at OKX. 

 

Could have something to do with how CAPE was being calculated. Low levels were a little junky, so most of that CAPE would be unseen by say SBCAPE.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

ORH

          ACTUAL           NORMAL                         RECORD

        HI   LO  AVG     HI   LO  AVG   DEPT HDD   HIGH YEAR   LOW YEAR

1      75   66   71     75   58   66     +5   0     90 1937    38 1926

2      75   69   72     74   58   66     +6   0     99 1953    38 1934

3      76   59   68     74   57   66     +2   0     96 1929    39 1941

4      75   56   66     74   57   65     +1   0     90 1953    39 1945

5      68   52   60     73   57   65     -5   5     88 1953    39 1930

6      64   49   57     73   56   65     -8   8     90 1901    38 1938

7      72   50   61     73   56   64     -3   4     90 1945    41 1942

8       M    M    M     72   56   64      M   M     91 2007    43 1990*

9       M    M    M     72   55   64      M   M     90 1915    38 1938

10       M    M    M     72   55   63      M   M     91 1931    35 1938

11       M    M    M     71   55   63      M   M     91 1983*   39 1917

12       M    M    M     71   54   63      M   M     86 1961    34 1933

13       M    M    M     71   54   62      M   M     89 1957    33 1943

14       M    M    M     70   54   62      M   M     90 1915    34 1943

15       M    M    M     70   53   62      M   M     92 1915    35 1926

16       M    M    M     70   53   61      M   M     92 1939    39 1966

17       M    M    M     69   53   61      M   M     89 1942    35 1935

18       M    M    M     69   52   61      M   M     92 1942    34 1990

19       M    M    M     69   52   60      M   M     88 1906    30 1943

20       M    M    M     68   51   60      M   M     89 1983    29 1941

21       M    M    M     68   51   59      M   M     85 1965    32 1929

22       M    M    M     67   51   59      M   M     90 1931    33 1929

23       M    M    M     67   50   59      M   M     90 1941    32 1904

24       M    M    M     67   50   58      M   M     85 2010*   32 1944

25       M    M    M     66   49   58      M   M     85 1926    31 1944

26       M    M    M     66   49   57      M   M     91 1930    28 1925

27       M    M    M     65   49   57      M   M     85 1953    30 1957

28       M    M    M     65   48   57      M   M     84 1916    27 1947

29       M    M    M     65   48   56      M   M     84 1952    28 1947

30       M    M    M     64   47   56      M   M     83 1986    28 1941

 

SEP-13 FOR BOSTON, MA (20')                         LAT=42.4N LON= 71.0W

 

                               TEMPERATURE DATA

          ACTUAL           NORMAL                         RECORD

        HI   LO  AVG     HI   LO  AVG   DEPT HDD   HIGH YEAR   LOW YEAR

1      79   70   75     77   62   70     +5   0     96 1881    50 1887

2      81   69   75     77   62   69     +6   0    100 1953    49 1967*

3      81   67   74     76   62   69     +5   0     97 1929    47 1893*

4      82   63   73     76   61   69     +4   0     94 1973*   43 1872

5      70   57   64     76   61   68     -4   1     93 1880    48 1896*

6      71   52   62     76   61   68     -6   3     94 1983    43 1888

7      79   54   67     75   60   68     -1   0    102 1881    43 1888

8       M    M    M     75   60   68      M   M     95 2007*   48 1978*

9       M    M    M     75   60   67      M   M     91 1971    45 1938

10       M    M    M     74   60   67      M   M     95 1931    41 1883

11       M    M    M     74   59   67      M   M     99 1983    40 1917

12       M    M    M     74   59   66      M   M     93 1961    43 1875

13       M    M    M     74   59   66      M   M     93 1957    45 1985*

14       M    M    M     73   58   66      M   M     92 1931*   40 1884

15       M    M    M     73   58   65      M   M     94 1915    41 1913

16       M    M    M     72   57   65      M   M     96 1939    42 1984

17       M    M    M     72   57   65      M   M     91 1915    45 1986*

18       M    M    M     72   57   64      M   M     90 1955*   43 1875

19       M    M    M     71   56   64      M   M     92 1983    42 1929

20       M    M    M     71   56   64      M   M     97 1983    42 1979*

21       M    M    M     71   56   63      M   M     94 1895    40 1929*

22       M    M    M     70   55   63      M   M     94 1895    35 1904

23       M    M    M     70   55   62      M   M     96 1895    35 1904*

24       M    M    M     70   54   62      M   M     90 1959    39 1974*

25       M    M    M     69   54   62      M   M     89 1926    38 1950

26       M    M    M     69   54   61      M   M     95 1881    34 1879

27       M    M    M     68   53   61      M   M     86 1998*   37 1947

28       M    M    M     68   53   60      M   M     90 1881*   37 1947

29       M    M    M     68   52   60      M   M     88 1952    34 1914

30       M    M    M     67   52   60      M   M     87 1986    36 1888

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Turtle

Turtle

Posted
Posted

Congrats to the Quabbin..I know how it feels when doubted

 

 

Was there a tornado touchdown this Sunday on the Quabbin Reservoir of MA? It's looking that way: http://mnoy.es/161QS1p 

GREAT photo of the waterspout!!  Will have to save that one.

 

wouldn't that be a waterspout?

Absolutely Ginxy!

 

Man that's only a couple miles from my house.  And on Sunday I wasn't seeing anything suggestive of that.  Also the radar is offline currently. 

 

:axe: :axe:

 

 

looks like a waterspout to me, no damage reports on land?

 

 

For NWS purposes it doesn't matter. If it is not a marine zone (i.e. ocean or Great Lakes) then it is considered a missed event on a tornado if it indeed touched down on the reservoir. We had the same issue twice last summer on Winnipesaukee.

Yeah, Chris...this is a miss for us.  We also missed one in Block Island Sound last summer (as I recall) that gave Block Island their first EVER tornado hit in recorded history!!!  Found about that one weeks later (uhoh...).

 

Really? That seems really silly. 

 

 

Yeah we thought so too, especially when we forecast for two of the five biggest lakes in New England.

 

But I get it, I mean if it isn't considered a marine zone, it's a land zone. And if something touches down there it's a tornado for all intents and purposes. Unfortunately there are different processes at play sometimes, where the radar is completely useless for spotting these signatures.

AFAIK, waterspouts have always been considered tornadoes when they cross on to land. 

 

That's right, Chris.  Two types of waterspouts...fair weather (from cumulus clouds over water with decent lapse rates but not that strong, then the tornadic ones which can be seen on radar.  Just your YOUR waterspout on Narragansett Bay on 7/23/08 (the day before the EF2 tornado in E NH).  Also, being that these fair wx ones are in the lower layers of the atmosphere, the one on the Quabbin on 9/1 was much too low to see on any conventional radar in our region.  Not even sure if the CASA radars in the CT valley (UMass Amherst) would see it (very limited coverage area).

 

A waterspout is a tornado..It's just over water..how many times have we seen videos of spouts moving onshore and then termed a TOR?

CORRECT!  Either process for waterspouts still have rotation, albeit weak in the fair wx case.  There is enough instability (high enough lapse rates) near the ocean's surface to develop.  Remember, too, the lack of land friction so "easier" (so to speak) to form.  Some waterspouts are "invisible" and can only see the "footprint" (spray ring or spiral ring) on the water's surface.

 

Waterspouts can certainly do damage, but the process in which they form is very different and there is sort of an upper bound to the wind speeds that can result in one versus the other.

Wouldn't want to be on the water in a boat with one of these passing over!!  40-50 mph can still do damage!

 

NWS confirmed the waterspout from Sunday

Neat

 

Here you go:

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

1213 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...WATERSPOUT CONFIRMED OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF QUABBIN RESERVOIR

ON SEPTEMBER 1 2013...

LOCATION...QUABBIN RESERVOIR IN NEW SALEM MA

DATE...SEPT. 1 2013

ESTIMATED TIME...625 PM EDT

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...APPROXIMATELY 10 YARDS

PATH LENGTH...APPROXIMATELY 0.1 MILE

BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.33N / 72.35W

ENDING LAT/LON...42.33 / 72.35W

FATALITIES...0

INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA HAS CONFIRMED A

WATERSPOUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE QUABBIN RESERVOIR

IN NEW SALEM IN FRANKLIN COUNTY MA ON SEPT. 1 2013.

A WORKER FOR THE MASSACHUSETTS DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND

RECREATION SNAPPED TWO PHOTOS OF THE STORM. THE FIRST SHOWED THE

FUNNEL CLOUD AND THE SECOND SHOWED IT EXTENDING DOWN TO THE WATER.

WHEN IT MADE CONTACT WITH THE WATER...HE OBSERVED THE WATER BEING

WHIPPED UPWARD.

THE APPROXIMATE TIME...BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY...WAS 625 PM.

HOWEVER THE WATERSPOUT WAS VERY SHORT-LIVED.

NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED AND THERE WAS NO DAMAGE.

DESPITE WINDS ALOFT NOT BEING CONDUCIVE FOR CLASSIC TORNADIC

DEVELOPMENT...THE WATERSPOUT WAS TRIGGERED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT

WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT

WEATHER.GOV/BOX.

$

FIELD

 
FYI, I have a PowerPoint show with a review of the studies on waterspout development/stages developed by Dr. Joseph Golden in Florida.  Just search them on the 'net.  He even had a pilot friend fly him near waterspouts (in his friend's Cessna) to get hand drawings of the water patterns near them!!  Really cool stuff!  I did research after the '08 waterspout/tornado off Narragansett Bay into Bristol counties of RI and MA.
 
Oh, and can't forget WINTER WATERSPOUTS, including one in January 2009 on Lake Champlain that is chronicled on the NWS BTV website.  You can get really high lapse rates with arctic airmasses over unfrozen lake waters!!
 
--Turtle 
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NorEaster17

NorEaster17

Posted
Posted

Actual Lows September 6, 2013 .

 

[DXR] DANBURY: 43°
[iJD] WILLIMANTIC: 43°
[OXC] OXFORD: 45°
[bDL] WINDSOR LOCKS: 45°
[MMK] MERIDEN: 45°
[HFD] HARTFORD: 47°
[sNC] CHESTER: 48°
[GON] GROTON: 50°
[HVN] NEW HAVEN: 51°
[bDR] BRIDGEPORT: 53°

 

Actual Lows : September 7, 2013 .

 

 [DXR] DANBURY: 44°
 [MMK] MERIDEN: 44°
 [iJD] WILLIMANTIC: 45°
 [OXC] OXFORD: 45°
 [bDL] WINDSOR LOCKS: 47°
 [GON] GROTON: 47°
 [HVN] NEW HAVEN: 48°
 [HFD] HARTFORD: 51°
 [bDR] BRIDGEPORT: 53°
 [sNC] CHESTER: 54°

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

It'll be interesting to see if/when the Euro backs off this week.  

 

D7 is still outside it's wheel-house, and smack dab in the middle of it's trough depth bias.  It'll likely be right about the timing of the break, but I have a tough time believing it will be right about the amplitude of the trough ... and consequently the magnitude of lower tropospheric cold transport, which would necessarily be over done in tandem.

 

Then, it appears that the mid-west ridge may try to reposition into the OV after next weekend.  That's been flagged for many cycles now, and could herald in a a warmer than normal week.    

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

Posted
Posted
Oh, and can't forget WINTER WATERSPOUTS, including one in January 2009 on Lake Champlain that is chronicled on the NWS BTV website.  You can get really high lapse rates with arctic airmasses over unfrozen lake waters!!
 
--Turtle 

 

 

We saw quite a few couplets in radial velocity using the DOW radar during lake-effect snow bands. There's a good chance that at least a few were waterspouts. Also, a situation with very unstable low-level lapse rates. Here's a radar image from our paper, which can be found here for more information

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00226.1.

 

post-869-0-41256500-1378586583_thumb.png

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