September weather discussion

[ineedsnow]

therres no way thats legit 

Yeah... maybe a pilot reached out of the cockpit and smooshed a bunch of dime size stones together!

[Quincy]

I like videos showing hail, to get a real idea of what's going on. It's easy to either pick out the largest stones and/or do something like the photo above and fuse several hailstones together. Of course, picking out the largest stones and reporting those sizes is the correct procedure, but I'd like to see photos/videos of any large hailstones causing damage as they fall.

 

Also, with the video note, it's much harder to fake a hail video, especially if the scene is easily recognized as a particular area/town/etc.

[powderfreak]

And they swore to the TV station that this is how it fell from the sky.

 

I'm going to send this picture in the next time I've got 65dbz overhead

 

[powderfreak]

Last night's minimum temperature map came out from BTV... I had 37F and no visible frost on my property.  I didn't go out this morning so no idea if there was some frost locally.  Wouldn't surprise me a little up the road as the valley tightens approaching Mansfield.  That's when the valley is more around 900-1000ft instead of 750-850ft and sometimes that's the difference.  

 

Anyway, I'd say the Frost Advisories were a good call in VT with widespread mid-30s and more upper 20s/low 30s in the Adirondacks.

 

[ORH_wxman]

 

It's unfortunate that people do that these days.  You see it all the time with snowfall.  I remember back in the 80s it was easier to weed out those guys because the weather watcher network was so vetted and tightly controlled.  You rarely published numbers from someone that wasn't part of your weather watcher or NWS network.

 

After a while errant numbers are going to stand out though.

Yeah its unfortunate but it happens all the time. Fortunately though for stuff like snowfall and temperature, its easier to weed out the bad reports as we have a denser network for that versus something like a hail report where the thunderstorm is local and varies in intensity as it moves.

[tamarack]

Sounds like he gives weenie obs on the temps so that he can get his readings on the news. They don't sound very reliable when you look at other data...and the fact that the official coop is different.

 

Were both reports from the same location?  I;m guessing that the COOP observer in New Sharon, 3 miles to my SSE and 100' higher plus on a slight sidehill, bottomed out in the 38-40 range this morning.  He's often 3-5F milder than my frost pocket on clear still mornings.

 

Yeah... maybe a pilot reached out of the cockpit and smooshed a bunch of dime size stones together!

Then hooked it to a small 'chute so it wouldn't smash apart on impact. 

[ORH_wxman]

Sunday night looks pretty chilly. The cool shot trended a bit stronger on last night's Euro and the 12z models so far get us down to around +4C at 850.

[OceanStWx]

Were both reports from the same location?  I;m guessing that the COOP observer in New Sharon, 3 miles to my SSE and 100' higher plus on a slight sidehill, bottomed out in the 38-40 range this morning.  He's often 3-5F milder than my frost pocket on clear still mornings.

 

40.

[CoastalWx]

This is like apple picking weather. Definitely a little chill when the wind blows.

[OceanStWx]

This is like apple picking weather. Definitely a little chill when the wind blows.

 

Gorgeous golf day...at least from what my AWIPS display is telling me.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Gorgeous golf day...at least from what my AWIPS display is telling me.

 

Ekster must already have gotten 55 or 60 strokes in by now on the 9th hole.

[OceanStWx]

Ekster must already have gotten 55 or 60 strokes in by now on the 9th hole.

 

He's trying to fix his swing, while on mids. Not a good combo.

 

Last night's Euro did trend stronger with the next cool shot. Ensembles are actually a little cooler than the op run, at least in the north. A little more a glancing blow for SNE.

[ORH_wxman]

 

He's trying to fix his swing, while on mids. Not a good combo.

 

Last night's Euro did trend stronger with the next cool shot. Ensembles are actually a little cooler than the op run, at least in the north. A little more a glancing blow for SNE.

 

Yeah it looked not that wamrer than the current cool shot. It got us to like +3 to +4c at 850. It wouldn't shock me to see similar low temps...perhaps a bit colder for Maine as the trajectory looks pretty good there, though I haven't looked closely at MOS or anything.

[OceanStWx]

 

 

Yeah it looked not that wamrer than the current cool shot. It got us to like +3 to +4c at 850. It wouldn't shock me to see similar low temps...perhaps a bit colder for Maine as the trajectory looks pretty good there, though I haven't looked closely at MOS or anything.

 

Early peek at the MAV/MET have BML getting down to 31 (MEX was 35 last night).

[Tropopause_Fold]

pretty much a snoozer until at least the middle part of next week. probably about another day or two before i get pissed off about it.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, I guess these cool incursions are interesting  ...this one, and perhaps an even briefer one late Sunday, but it's tough to ignore the over-shadowing warm appeal in the operational guidance blends through mid month.  It may not be what some want to hear/accept/admit, but that's likely to be the dominating theme at least through the 20th.

 

'Sides, though it is Meteorological autumn, it is still summer on that other calendar that goes by solar incidence?  hello.  I think there is a subtle "read-between-the-lines" tendency for us to put the cart before the horses here.   I'm guilty of it too, as I admit that I think this winter will come on early and perhaps hard.  I could be totally off my rocker on that, but ... 

 

1) Lack of active recurving TC (so far... got to let that marinate for a while yet to be certain - duh) correlate to weaker ensuing cold season PV as shown by Florida State Dr... damn, can't recall his name

 

2) On-going 300 year super-position of solar minima and deeps declination since the damn, what's the minimum called? .. perhaps off-set by GW, but not so much so that you can't get a -40F at Tower Minn just the same.

 

3) The multi-decadal AO/EPO/NAO are negative now and falling.  

 

4) There is a tripolar SST orientation in the Atlantic -- I am less familiar with the science on how that correlates, and whether or not that is wind stress related (chicken or egg wrt the NAO), but it does correlate with the negative phase state.  (Edit: actually it looks less impressive at the moment, but still so over eastern areas. )

 

5) Neutral ENSO that is tending toward weak Nino by spring

 

...this list goes on... I just see a lot of broader scoped factors that are lending to active cold season, and have discussed this in the recent past.  Still, the governing theme over the next 2 weeks will likely be positive departures when all is said and done.   

[Brian5671]

On point 2 are you talking about the Dalton or Maunder minimum?

[Damage In Tolland]

58.2 at 1:30. Wonder if Scooter will be cooler than here today?

[ORH_wxman]

 

58.2 at 1:30. Wonder if Scooter will be cooler than here today?

 

You'll be one of the coldest spots as long as that band of clouds from NW CT over to N RI stays in place another couple hours.

[powderfreak]

 

 

You'll be one of the coldest spots as long as that band of clouds from NW CT over to N RI stays in place another couple hours.

 

 

Mount Tolland orographic debris clouds...

 

[weathafella]

Yeah, I guess these cool incursions are interesting  ...this one, and perhaps an even briefer one late Sunday, but it's tough to ignore the over-shadowing warm appeal in the operational guidance blends through mid month.  It may not be what some want to hear/accept/admit, but that's likely to be the dominating theme at least through the 20th.

 

'Sides, though it is Meteorological autumn, it is still summer on that other calendar that goes by solar incidence?  hello.  I think there is a subtle "read-between-the-lines" tendency for us to put the cart before the horses here.   I'm guilty of it too, as I admit that I think this winter will come on early and perhaps hard.  I could be totally off my rocker on that, but ... 

 

1) Lack of active recurving TC (so far... got to let that marinate for a while yet to be certain - duh) correlate to weaker ensuing cold season PV as shown by Florida State Dr... damn, can't recall his name

 

2) On-going 300 year super-position of solar minima and deeps declination since the damn, what's the minimum called? .. perhaps off-set by GW, but not so much so that you can't get a -40F at Tower Minn just the same.

 

3) The multi-decadal AO/EPO/NAO are negative now and falling.  

 

4) There is a tripolar SST orientation in the Atlantic -- I am less familiar with the science on how that correlates, and whether or not that is wind stress related (chicken or egg wrt the NAO), but it does correlate with the negative phase state.  (Edit: actually it looks less impressive at the moment, but still so over eastern areas. )

 

5) Neutral ENSO that is tending toward weak Nino by spring

 

...this list goes on... I just see a lot of broader scoped factors that are lending to active cold season, and have discussed this in the recent past.  Still, the governing theme over the next 2 weeks will likely be positive departures when all is said and done.

J/k

I like the post John,

[OceanStWx]

Mount Tolland orographic debris clouds...

 

 

Given what we know about the area, would standing lenticular be all that strange?

[ORH_wxman]

 

Mount Tolland orographic debris clouds...

 

The sun is still important this time of year...but its power is diminishing quickly. We still have an early April sun angle, and we know what happens when you stay in the clouds versus full sun in early April...it can make a big difference. But in another 6 weeks or so once we get past Columbus Day, we'll be down to a late February sun angle which is where it starts to lose its punch...esp that period backing up between roughly March 1st and Feb 10th. In the autumn that is pretty similar to Columbus Day versus Halloween.

I still remember how long the snow took to melt after the October 2011 storm going past Halloween and into early November...despite 55F temps. Usually that would melt in like 4-5 days if that was March, but it took like 9-10 days to melt...thanks to the weak early November sun angle.

[CapturedNature]

You'll be one of the coldest spots as long as that band of clouds from NW CT over to N RI stays in place another couple hours.

 

It would make for an interesting launch point for low temps tonight.  I think clouds will be an issue as the night progresses but it would make it interesting if skies remained clear.

 

Needless to say, if the clouds hold, I think I'm going to have trouble hitting my forecast high.

[joey2002]

42-44 FTL. 

 

Was a good call for the Tolland valley.  (42 here)

[Baroclinic Zone]

That hail stone is about as real as a tornado in Tolland. 

 

This is the type of post I will delete.

 

"No excessive trolling of other members"

[Typhoon Tip]

 

 

The sun is still important this time of year...but its power is diminishing quickly. We still have an early April sun angle, and we know what happens when you stay in the clouds versus full sun in early April...it can make a big difference. But in another 6 weeks or so once we get past Columbus Day, we'll be down to a late February sun angle which is where it starts to lose its punch...esp that period backing up between roughly March 1st and Feb 10th. In the autumn that is pretty similar to Columbus Day versus Halloween.

I still remember how long the snow took to melt after the October 2011 storm going past Halloween and into early November...despite 55F temps. Usually that would melt in like 4-5 days if that was March, but it took like 9-10 days to melt...thanks to the weak early November sun angle.

 

That's actually a really good point about early winters -- when if they occur.   The attack of snow during a lower sun angle might have a positive feed-back for later on.  The lower sun angle time of the year is actually Nov/Dec/early Jan ...  It might be easy to forget that because the climate off-sets, and 'tends' to bring the goods later in Jan and Feb; but if and when winter can commit earlier, it benefits...

[Brian5671]

That's actually a really good point about early winters -- when if they occur.   The attack of snow during a lower sun angle might have a positive feed-back for later on.  The lower sun angle time of the year is actually Nov/Dec/early Jan ...  It might be easy to forget that because the climate off-sets, and 'tends' to bring the goods later in Jan and Feb; but if and when winter can commit earlier, it benefits...

agree-that's why it's easy to get a light even to stick to streets in Nov and Dec with marginal temps.  The same event in Late Feb or March often melts on contact....

[weathafella]

That's actually a really good point about early winters -- when if they occur. The attack of snow during a lower sun angle might have a positive feed-back for later on. The lower sun angle time of the year is actually Nov/Dec/early Jan ... It might be easy to forget that because the climate off-sets, and 'tends' to bring the goods later in Jan and Feb; but if and when winter can commit earlier, it benefits...

agree-that's why it's easy to get a light even to stick to streets in Nov and Dec with marginal temps. The same event in Late Feb or March often melts on contact....

Light events in marginal temps tend to not stick regardless when. But low sun periods might allow temps to be 3-4 colder which makes a big difference. Intensity typically determines accumulations more than any other factor.

[Tropopause_Fold]

euro would be quite the torch next wed if it verified. might be overdone getting that tongue of +19/20C air in here at 850 but still...could be a fairly warm stretch Tue-Thu. 

 

also still has some semblance of a TC or just weak LP / remnants of P.O.S. Gabby / off the EC running N along 70W for a time. eventually gets pushed seaward SE of the BM by the advancing front but have to watch for potential S.O.S...or whatnot