Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Turns out the Euro was right with that cut off locked to our west late next week. Sever chances Wed/thur..then wet and humid with south flow thru day 10..if there was something tropical in there...it would have a chance to run up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Turns out the Euro was right with that cut off locked to our west late next week. Sever chances Wed/thur..then wet and humid with south flow thru day 10..if there was something tropical in there...it would have a chance to run up You can see into the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 You can see into the future? Two runs in a row..and now GFS more or less in agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Going low tonight. Will feel nice to get the first readings in the 30s of the season tonight. AFD " As this afternoon/S dewpoints have dropped into the 30s...confidence is high that most of the north country will see min temperatures in the 30s towards the early morning hours. Areas in and around Lake Champlain will remain in the 40s as the lake temperature was 73 degrees as of 10am this morning. Coldest areas look to be the adks...falling into the u20s-l30s and have kept the freeze warning for these areas. Other cold spots look to be the slv...north central Vermont and NEK." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 65/45 here Crisp and clean and no caffeine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Going low tonight. Will feel nice to get the first readings in the 30s of the season tonight. AFD " As this afternoon/S dewpoints have dropped into the 30s...confidence is high that most of the north country will see min temperatures in the 30s towards the early morning hours. Areas in and around Lake Champlain will remain in the 40s as the lake temperature was 73 degrees as of 10am this morning. Coldest areas look to be the adks...falling into the u20s-l30s and have kept the freeze warning for these areas. Other cold spots look to be the slv...north central Vermont and NEK." It certainly will feel nice. I'm hoping I join the 30s club. My PnC has 40° and I'm usually a couple below that so we'll see. My dp is still around 50 but it, along with the temp, has been dropping since noon. It should drop nicely once the death orb settles below the horizon. My bet is on SLK being the nations low tomorrow morning but we'll see. Maybe someone else will squeeze out lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Foothills forecast is upper 30s, Mts mid 30s with a frost advisory. GYX afternoon AFD thinking early decouple, some later fog. When radiation fog develops at my place, it's often absent at 5 AM and most dense about 1/2 hr after sunrise, and so would affect the minimum only slightly. Could be close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I wouldn't sweat it, if your gig is on the cold side of the fantasy lines -- really is vastly too early to start thinking along these lines... 'Sides, there is at least minimum correlation between autumn +AO and ensuing -AO winters. And certainly/mathematically since the AO shares domain space with both the EPO and NAO, these probably have some corresponding relationship. I just meant that for now it wasn't good. I would MUCH rather have a +NAO now than in December. That's why I posted it in the SEP thread instead of the Winter thread. That correlation makes sense though, but it seems the AO is mostly just neutral now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 That TOR (or whatever) pic Noyes posted kinda surprised me. Did not think the dynamics were in place there that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Hit up the shelburne falls coffee roasters on the mohawk trail instead. Our DP has fallen 12 degrees since 10AM. Visible sat shows more cloud cover right in the river valley. I wonder if it dissipates entirely and we get the usual radiational cooling ratios, or if this one is especially latitudinally driven. Think ORE may outdo CEF tonight more than normal. I usually only go to the Roasters when I'm bringing a coffee gift to someone. As a change of pace, sometimes I'll head into the village to Mocha Maya. Not really a fan of the coffee, but it's nice to spend a little time in the town. A quick escape from the hinterlands in the hills. Coldest spot in the lower 48F may come out of like SLK or HIE tonight... My bet is on West Chesterfield. 62.7/40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Still 72F here, looking at a forecast low of 41F. DP is 43, a lot lower than a few days back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Two runs in a row..and now GFS more or less in agreement GFS has wed/thur warm/humid but not beyond that, at least up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 The CFSv2 continues to have a slightly AN theme through next week, but barely. Then it shows permanent Fall Conditions around the 21st through the end of the month. It has been very consistent with this output for over a week. This is for SNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Temp's still hasnt' changed from where it was all day, but the dew's heading down. 62.5/38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 ZFP is mid-30's, p/c is 37. I'm sticking with my 45. 61.2/44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 63.1/46..So far airmass seems to be underperforming a bit..but plenty of time to dry and cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 63.1/46..So far airmass seems to be underperforming a bit..but plenty of time to dry and cool 42-44 FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 42-44 FTL.Yeah that may have been too aggressive. Lot of soil moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Yeah that may have been too aggressive. Lot of soil moisture. This weather is great. Just shut windows since it's already 69F in here..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Had my first sub-freezing dew point this afternoon at the local ASOS...31F (M01). KMVL 052054Z AUTO VRB06G15KT 10SM FEW065 16/M01 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP191 T01561006 53007 Currently 59/34 and the bottom is about to fall out as the sun just went below Mansfield's ridgeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 63.1/46..So far airmass seems to be underperforming a bit..but plenty of time to dry and cool I agree a bit. I had concerns this AM on clearing hindering good radiational cooling and advection of lower dews. 67/55 at 6pm. We'll see what 7pm shows. Can feel the crispness in the air so it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 This weather is great. Just shut windows since it's already 69F in here..lol.Yeah all the windows are closed in our house too. With lots of shade on the house now it would get way too cool tonight. Even will keep closed tomorrow . May only get to 64-65 tomorrow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 It certainly will feel nice. I'm hoping I join the 30s club. My PnC has 40° and I'm usually a couple below that so we'll see. My dp is still around 50 but it, along with the temp, has been dropping since noon. It should drop nicely once the death orb settles below the horizon. My bet is on SLK being the nations low tomorrow morning but we'll see. Maybe someone else will squeeze out lower. Yeah, we should be close to the 30s by morning... skies have cleared out and dews are dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Ahh I see BOX went with a frost advisory in GC...probably a safe move with Td's in the 38-43F range there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I don't see frost happening here, but tickling 39 would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Cute little bump in tD right at sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Yeah all the windows are closed in our house too. With lots of shade on the house now it would get way too cool tonight. Even will keep closed tomorrow . May only get to 64-65 tomorrow here You'll be warmer than me. Congrats on 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 You'll be warmer than me. Congrats on 68.Unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Turns out the Euro was right with that cut off locked to our west late next week. Sever chances Wed/thur..then wet and humid with south flow thru day 10..if there was something tropical in there...it would have a chance to run up There certainly does appear to be a shot at some strong convection next Wednesday or Thursday...and taken literally more likely Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Drop like a rock it did... Already 48F at home prior to 8pm. Wow does it feel good...wood smoke, first night of football, Yanks-Sox, and a chill in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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