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September weather discussion

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The Euro's been doing this since the end of July - ha ..   

 

I know what you mean though.   This may be O.T. but I still think this winter is going to mean business; whether it is end to end, or in a couple of severer intervals in-between Rossby roll-back cycling, who knows ... but it's got to get here at some point. 

 

I think this cool shot is the real seasonal turner, though.  We may get hot again, or just warm, and it could even last 6 days -- it wouldn't matter in my opinion. Once you get this kind of air mass to knock on the door, that means the new season is already talking to the real-estate broker about settling down in your neighborhood.

 

I'll tell you... one thing that i don't want to see happen as a lover of winter, is a warm period in October.  My personal findings suggest that warmth over eastern N/A tends to displace to higher latitudes and creates "false blocking" too early in the season.  You get a cool snap and an early snow out of the deal in early November, then the true canvas wipes out the block and it's tooth pulling getting winter back in here afterward.  

 

 

A warm October doesn't really bother me. I do like to feel the chill as the season progresses, but in terms of going forward, warmth in October doesn't turn me overly skeptical for winter. We've had some torch Octobers that led into great winters...most notably was probably 1995. 2007 was a funace and that led into the epic December 2007 pattern. Oct 2010 was above average, 1970 was a torch too...both had epic winters. 1968 and 1961 are two more.

 

Though on the whole I do agree I'd prefer to see a cold October as there is a weak correlation there. I guess I just am not too afraid of a weak correlation...so I assume to just let autumn play out. I'm much more terrified of a strong vortex up in the EPO/WPO region that establishes itself (for 3+ weeks) in late October/November. That is quite often the kiss of death for us.

 

 

It looks like in the medium range going into mid-September, we sort of relax the flow and lift the gradient northward...I'm guessign we end up above normal temps for that period, but perhaps not overly so.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

A warm October doesn't really bother me. I do like to feel the chill as the season progresses, but in terms of going forward, warmth in October doesn't turn me overly skeptical for winter. We've had some torch Octobers that led into great winters...most notably was probably 1995. 2007 was a funace and that led into the epic December 2007 pattern. Oct 2010 was above average, 1970 was a torch too...both had epic winters. 1968 and 1961 are two more.

 

Though on the whole I do agree I'd prefer to see a cold October as there is a weak correlation there. I guess I just am not too afraid of a weak correlation...so I assume to just let autumn play out. I'm much more terrified of a strong vortex up in the EPO/WPO region that establishes itself (for 3+ weeks) in late October/November. That is quite often the kiss of death for us.

 

 

It looks like in the medium range going into mid-September, we sort of relax the flow and lift the gradient northward...I'm guessign we end up above normal temps for that period, but perhaps not overly so.

the best decision is to avoid getting emotionally invested in the weather. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

For NW New England this is an easy call.   I'm speaking to the frost advisory and Specials for the Rt 2 corridor down here.  

 

I have no doubt that we start advecting drier air here this afternoon, just curious how much that will be with still green foliage and recent soil moisture increases. 

 

Good pick-up though... dews are now dropping up here with the three main sites (MVL/MPV/1V4) in north/central VT showing dews 35-37F and falling.  However, BTV did pick up on the delayed dew point rush...

 

ALSO...ADJUSTED

DEWPT TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND GENERALLY HIGHER DEWPTS

EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.

UPSTREAM...DEWPTS IN THE 30S GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO

THE REGION...BUT WILL TAKE TIME...AND COULD AFFECT ABILITY FOR

TEMPS TO DROP TONIGHT.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

60/36 and this temp is going no where today. 

 

Upper 50s and low 60s widespread at 1,000ft or lower... 53F at 2kft and 43F at 4kft.

 

Once the daytime cumulus dies off this evening, we should be able to plummet if winds go calm...one of those evenings where its in the 40s at like 9pm. 

 

Looking east from near my spot towards the Worcester Range...the spine's little brother that parallels it to the east. 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Having said what I just said to Will ...  I will be honest, though, that one thing that has me a little spooked that it may take a while is that the PNA is comes back into the picture as more correlated beginning in September; although, obviously it doesn't onset on a dime.  But the derived products from the GFS camp show a strong change from positive to negative with that index.  That happens while the NAO stays neutral positive... right out through Sept 20.  

 

The GFS operational is really showing more extended warm episode for mid month, and though daily determinism ...cannot confidently really exist beyond D5 utilizing that model, it does match that teleconnector spread rather well.     

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

the best decision is to avoid getting emotionally invested in the weather. 

 

LOL. I used to get concerned too when I was younger, but that last week in October towards Thanksgiving is usually the time when we "flip the script, " so I'll wait unti then. I think seeing a black hole up near AK through October would make me more worried even if we weren't torching. That vortex up there scares me more than anything on Earth. Such a horrific force. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

It's going to be a long Fall.

 

Any chance of snow tonight?  :)

 

60/36 and this temp is going no where today. 

 

Upper 50s and low 60s widespread at 1,000ft or lower... 53F at 2kft and 43F at 4kft.

 

Once the daytime cumulus dies off this evening, we should be able to plummet if winds go calm...one of those evenings where its in the 40s at like 9pm. 

 

Looking east from near my spot towards the Worcester Range...the spine's little brother that parallels it to the east. 

 

attachicon.gifphoto.JPG

 

Looks great, Scott.

 

Just made the 7-mile drive into Greenfield to get a Dunkin' Donuts coffee (sometimes you just need to).  Registered 71-72 down there.  63.4/51 here at the Pit.  Just a beautiful day.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Posted

Any chance of snow tonight? :)

Looks great, Scott.

Just made the 7-mile drive into Greenfield to get a Dunkin' Donuts coffee (sometimes you just need to). Registered 71-72 down there. 63.4/51 here at the Pit. Just a beautiful day.

that DD is a lifesaver after tearing up the Beast on a frigid winter day
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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

DD's a lifesaver at most points on any day!we have a chain of locally owned Bakers Dozen that blows DD away with coffee and pastries, not a day without an ice coffee, year round

That sounds good. I'm not a fan of DD coffee and I'm way too old to eat donuts and pastries lol.

Seasons changing. Looks like normal September wx..some warm, some cool.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

And so it begins, The warmista's have shed there wife beaters for shawls, Low 60's today, Low 40's tonight

 

LOL.  Folks should always have shawl handy.

 

That sounds good. I'm not a fan of DD coffee and I'm way too old to eat donuts and pastries lol. Seasons changing. Looks like normal September wx..some warm, some cool.

 

I love DD.  Pretty damn far to go for a cup o' joe.  But, it breaks up the day to make the trek sometimes.

 

63.6/46

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

that DD is a lifesaver after tearing up the Beast on a frigid winter day

 

Hit up the shelburne falls coffee roasters on the mohawk trail instead.

 

Our DP has fallen 12 degrees since 10AM.  Visible sat shows more cloud cover right in the river valley.  I wonder if it dissipates entirely and we get the usual radiational cooling ratios, or if this one is especially latitudinally driven.  Think ORE may outdo CEF tonight more than normal.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

tonight will be one of those nights when you can build a fire in the fireplace...and really have it seem like fall is here.

 

mav and met both 36 at ORE tonight. 38F mav at OWD too.

 

 

One of those first nights of autumn where it actually feels "cold" out and you can smell the wood burning fireplace smoke. Those are when you know the season is finally starting to turn.

 

The battle between summer trying to hold on and autumn arriving begins.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

A warm October doesn't really bother me. I do like to feel the chill as the season progresses, but in terms of going forward, warmth in October doesn't turn me overly skeptical for winter. We've had some torch Octobers that led into great winters...most notably was probably 1995. 2007 was a funace and that led into the epic December 2007 pattern. Oct 2010 was above average, 1970 was a torch too...both had epic winters. 1968 and 1961 are two more.

 

Though on the whole I do agree I'd prefer to see a cold October as there is a weak correlation there. I guess I just am not too afraid of a weak correlation...so I assume to just let autumn play out. I'm much more terrified of a strong vortex up in the EPO/WPO region that establishes itself (for 3+ weeks) in late October/November. That is quite often the kiss of death for us.

 

 

It looks like in the medium range going into mid-September, we sort of relax the flow and lift the gradient northward...I'm guessign we end up above normal temps for that period, but perhaps not overly so.

 

Right - I should qualify that;  warm Octobers don't automatically put me off, it's just something that I have seen happen before, where warm masses of air turn into WAA events at high latitudes, and then you get that false blocking.  

 

I agree also with the EPO -- I have always maintained that the EPO is the primary loading pattern for cold into N/A, where the other tele's then signal the relay S.  Get some geographically favored gyre rattling around in the NE Pacific is a bane for winter here.  

 

By the way guys, it was snowing SE of Hudson Bay this morning.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Good pick-up though... dews are now dropping up here with the three main sites (MVL/MPV/1V4) in north/central VT showing dews 35-37F and falling.  However, BTV did pick up on the delayed dew point rush...

 

ALSO...ADJUSTED

DEWPT TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND GENERALLY HIGHER DEWPTS

EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.

UPSTREAM...DEWPTS IN THE 30S GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO

THE REGION...BUT WILL TAKE TIME...AND COULD AFFECT ABILITY FOR

TEMPS TO DROP TONIGHT.

 

 

DP dump finally arriving in the Mohawk Trail region ...

 

051851 SCT075 SCT260 10                       70 39 3310 170

051751 FEW060 SCT075 SCT260 10        70 38 3414G19 170 72 60

051651 FEW050 SCT260 10                      69 43 0106G23 167

051551 SCT038 SCT180 BKN260 10         67 49 0110G15 167       

 

The question for this region is whether there is a DP spike as the sun goes down and wind settles off.  This sun is still strong and is heating the ground -- there will be a surge of radiative transfer and moisture transport from the surface to the air during decoupling.   

 

Boy is this micro-Met some nerdy ass fishing

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

DP dump finally arriving in the Mohawk Trail region ...

051851 SCT075 SCT260 10 70 39 3310 170

051751 FEW060 SCT075 SCT260 10 70 38 3414G19 170 72 60

051651 FEW050 SCT260 10 69 43 0106G23 167

051551 SCT038 SCT180 BKN260 10 67 49 0110G15 167

The question for this region is whether there is a DP spike as the sun goes down and wind settles off. This sun is still strong and is heating the ground -- there will be a surge of radiative transfer and moisture transport from the surface to the air during decoupling.

Boy is this micro-Met some nerdy ass fishing

Well I'd assume there will be a Td spike after the sun goes down...there always is, right? What's that very basic rule of thumb with good radiational cooling...like the afternoon dews can be a good indicator of overnight lows? That would put some RT 2 spots in upper 30s.

Up here, all main BTV CWA reporting stations are in the 30s for dews...most 35-38F range. Even Colchester Reef out in Lake Champlain is Td of 37F at 2-m above the warm lake. That's some dry air.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Ugh, NAO is just deadlocked.

 

I wouldn't sweat it, if your gig is on the cold side of the fantasy lines -- really is vastly too early to start thinking along these lines...   

 

'Sides, there is at least minimum correlation between autumn +AO and ensuing -AO winters.   And certainly/mathematically since the AO shares domain space with both the EPO and NAO, these probably have some corresponding relationship.   

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