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September weather discussion


Ginx snewx

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How nasty?  What sort of highs can the region expect?  Torch to me now is upper 80s and above or roughly a +10 on highs.  It's been 2+ weeks since it's been that high.  Sitting at 57 for a low.  Feels great outside. 

 

 

Meh to the torch. Doesn't look anything special to me.

 

 

I don't see a torch in the horizon.. 70's for next 5-7 days with another cool shot coming by next weekend?

 

 

No torch...some areas approach 80 today and maybe we tickle 80 a few days between the weekend and next week, but average highs for most of us are still in the mid to upper 70's, so that's nothing crazy. In the past, I remember hitting 90° plenty of times in September.

 

 

Not exactly a torch WX, more like...average.

Well Ryan..here's a few

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Not that this was the case but waterspouts can also form in cold air environs. Technically a waterspout is over any body of water, despite the NWS calling them a tornado, if they never touch land its not a tornado. Last I checked lakes are Marine environments

 

Yeah... this is right. The definition for verification purposes for NWS warnings is different. Obviously you can't issue a special marine warning if there's no maritime zone. 

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Not that this was the case but waterspouts can also form in cold air environs. Technically a waterspout is over any body of water, despite the NWS calling them a tornado, if they never touch land its not a tornado. Last I checked lakes are Marine environments

 

It's a weird quirk of the system for forecasts and verification. Lakes are land zones for a forecast, meaning they aren't subject to small crafts, gales, etc. It would be similar to a waterspout touching down on the Mississippi or Connecticut but never reaching either shore. It's a "tornado" since it is a land forecast zone.

 

You are right about terminology though. It would still be called a waterspout (even in Storm Data), but for verification it would be a missed tornado.

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Warned about what?  What's the warning for?  Mid 80s are warm.  NOT A TORCH.  If it makes it to 88-90F in a week from now, yes it will be a torch but why dwell on that when we have this glorious Fall airmass?

 I don't think anyone is dwelling on it..just warning.

 

Wx is all about looking ahead to the next challenge or big event. for me anyway

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We really test our coastal shapefiles in AWIPS. Have to make sure everyone is covered by a TOR or SMW...ha

 

you know ... now that I think about it, didn't something like that happen down in Miami a few years ago. I think I recall seeing video of a water spout, replete with connection to wall cloud/Meso and it was taking turns over a harbor and land.   But maybe my memories off ..

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Thanks for leaving this out Kevin. Meatball.

 

 

There's been signs of a brief torch...or "warmer" weather middle of next week for a few days now. I made a comment about it when I was mentioning how the Euro is showing a typical transitional pattern with autumn and summer trading punches.

 

If everything breaks right, then BDL could tickle 90F, but the most likely outcome is probably something a little more tempered since if we do warm sector we'll probably be dealing with some SW flow aloft with a dirty airmass with clouds/convection.

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This is what I mean ... Look at ALB's DP over the last several hours of CAA.  They are trying to fall, but that bouncing around up and down is probably the foliage and soil moisture combined with sun perhaps off-setting...

 

051551 SCT038 SCT180 BKN260 10                 67 49 0110G15 167
051451 FEW028 SCT120 SCT160 BKN260 10  65 51 VR05 169
051351 SCT029 SCT110 BKN150 BKN260 10   60 47 0210 165
051251 SCT027 BKN040 BKN160 OVC250 10   61 48 0311G19 160 

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LOL..you did post that today so I know you changed your ideas from yesterday..but I was just offering a few examples to Ryan's question

 

No I didn't, you were claiming day 10 and beyond when you talked about the euro op. Next week had a warm signal for a while, and it's probably 1-2 day. We will survive.

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There's been signs of a brief torch...or "warmer" weather middle of next week for a few days now. I made a comment about it when I was mentioning how the Euro is showing a typical transitional pattern with autumn and summer trading punches.

 

If everything breaks right, then BDL could tickle 90F, but the most likely outcome is probably something a little more tempered since if we do warm sector we'll probably be dealing with some SW flow aloft with a dirty airmass with clouds/convection.

 

The 11-15 day could be nice wx. It may not be cool, but it looks like HP nearby so maybe mild days and cool nights aside from any fropa.

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There's been signs of a brief torch...or "warmer" weather middle of next week for a few days now. I made a comment about it when I was mentioning how the Euro is showing a typical transitional pattern with autumn and summer trading punches.

 

If everything breaks right, then BDL could tickle 90F, but the most likely outcome is probably something a little more tempered since if we do warm sector we'll probably be dealing with some SW flow aloft with a dirty airmass with clouds/convection.

 

The Euro's been doing this since the end of July - ha ..   

 

I know what you mean though.   This may be O.T. but I still think this winter is going to mean business; whether it is end to end, or in a couple of severer intervals in-between Rossby roll-back cycling, who knows ... but it's got to get here at some point. 

 

I think this cool shot is the real seasonal turner, though.  We may get hot again, or just warm, and it could even last 6 days -- it wouldn't matter in my opinion. Once you get this kind of air mass to knock on the door, that means the new season is already talking to the real-estate broker about settling down in your neighborhood.

 

I'll tell you... one thing that i don't want to see happen as a lover of winter, is a warm period in October.  My personal findings suggest that warmth over eastern N/A tends to displace to higher latitudes and creates "false blocking" too early in the season.  You get a cool snap and an early snow out of the deal in early November, then the true canvas wipes out the block and it's tooth pulling getting winter back in here afterward.  

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It's a weird quirk of the system for forecasts and verification. Lakes are land zones for a forecast, meaning they aren't subject to small crafts, gales, etc. It would be similar to a waterspout touching down on the Mississippi or Connecticut but never reaching either shore. It's a "tornado" since it is a land forecast zone.

You are right about terminology though. It would still be called a waterspout (even in Storm Data), but for verification it would be a missed tornado.

Thanks are the Great Lakes included as Marine?
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It always is...autumn is one of the most boring seasons meteorologically speaking unless we get the rare TC that gets us...or an early snow event in late Oct/Nov.

Even a TC affecting somewhere would be exciting.  Can't remember such a boring tropical season.   And we look dry for the next few weeks without any tropical influence this year outside of a cold front or two affecting us....

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