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September weather discussion


Ginx snewx

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For NWS purposes it doesn't matter. If it is not a marine zone (i.e. ocean or Great Lakes) then it is considered a missed event on a tornado if it indeed touched down on the reservoir. We had the same issue twice last summer on Winnipesaukee.

 

Really? That seems really silly. 

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Really? That seems really silly. 

 

Yeah we thought so too, especially when we forecast for two of the five biggest lakes in New England.

 

But I get it, I mean if it isn't considered a marine zone, it's a land zone. And if something touches down there it's a tornado for all intents and purposes. Unfortunately there are different processes at play sometimes, where the radar is completely useless for spotting these signatures.

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Yeah we thought so too, especially when we forecast for two of the five biggest lakes in New England.

 

But I get it, I mean if it isn't considered a marine zone, it's a land zone. And if something touches down there it's a tornado for all intents and purposes. Unfortunately there are different processes at play sometimes, where the radar is completely useless for spotting these signatures.

 

Yeah good luck getting any lead time on a waterspout on a lake in middle of nowhere Maine. 

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I'd like to see this CAA kick-in and actually get the DP dump.  Still 43F DP at KBTV and the NAM MOS is bit dry busted so far.   Also appears to be too dry at other locations comparing previous machine output to actual.  I went back 3 cycles and noted a slight backing off on the scale of this brief cool-down.  But, there are all kinds of topographical advantages some inland places have that can encourage decoupling and so forth, too.  We'll see.

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For NWS purposes it doesn't matter. If it is not a marine zone (i.e. ocean or Great Lakes) then it is considered a missed event on a tornado if it indeed touched down on the reservoir. We had the same issue twice last summer on Winnipesaukee.

 

With the exception of a photograph showing a condensation funnel and waves kicked up how do they verify the touchdown for the stats?

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I'd like to see this CAA kick-in and actually get the DP dump.  Still 43F DP at KBTV and the NAM MOS is bit dry busted so far.   Also appears to be too dry at other locations comparing previous machine output to actual.  I went back 3 cycles and noted a slight backing off on the scale of this brief cool-down.  But, there are all kinds of topographical advantages some inland places have that can encourage decoupling and so forth, too.  We'll see.

Dew here is still 62..Though we did have .12 in the downpour this morning

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I'd like to see this CAA kick-in and actually get the DP dump. Still 43F DP at KBTV and the NAM MOS is bit dry busted so far. Also appears to be too dry at other locations comparing previous machine output to actual. I went back 3 cycles and noted a slight backing off on the scale of this brief cool-down. But, there are all kinds of topographical advantages some inland places have that can encourage decoupling and so forth, too. We'll see.

The dew is down to 36F at my local ASOS/MVL, one county east of BTV.

BTV has a 70F lake that's seven miles wide upwind of it.

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A waterspout is a tornado..It's just over water..how many times have we seen videos of spouts moving onshore and then termed a TOR?

 

Well yes and no. They can form in different manners that drastically affect their strength.

 

A supercell traveling over water can drop a waterspout by name, but it is very much tornadic in nature. Think RI in 2008, or the multi-vortex over LI Sound.

 

In other instances, including this example, local wind effects can lead to enhanced horizontal vorticity which can be tilted into the vertical as rapid cumulus growth occurs overhead. This is why you see so many waterspouts in Hawai'i or the Florida Keys. The air mass in place Sunday was primed for this, and reviewing the radar data there is no coherent velocity pattern to suggest rotation in the convection aloft. So I'm led to believe that this was a vorticity stretching example, and not supercellular in nature.

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Well yes and no. They can form in different manners that drastically affect their strength.

 

A supercell traveling over water can drop a waterspout by name, but it is very much tornadic in nature. Think RI in 2008, or the multi-vortex over LI Sound.

 

In other instances, including this example, local wind effects can lead to enhanced horizontal vorticity which can be tilted into the vertical as rapid cumulus growth occurs overhead. This is why you see so many waterspouts in Hawai'i or the Florida Keys. The air mass in place Sunday was primed for this, and reviewing the radar data there is no coherent velocity pattern to suggest rotation in the convection aloft. So I'm led to believe that this was a vorticity stretching example, and not supercellular in nature.

I remember seeing a youtube of one in Myrtle BEach a year or 2 ago. It moved onshore and tore up some beachfront property. There was another one in Long Island too i believe

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I remember seeing a youtube of one in Myrtle BEach a year or 2 ago. It moved onshore and tore up some beachfront property. There was another one in Long Island too i believe

 

Waterspouts can certainly do damage, but the process in which they form is very different and there is sort of an upper bound to the wind speeds that can result in one versus the other.

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Well yes and no. They can form in different manners that drastically affect their strength.

 

A supercell traveling over water can drop a waterspout by name, but it is very much tornadic in nature. Think RI in 2008, or the multi-vortex over LI Sound.

 

In other instances, including this example, local wind effects can lead to enhanced horizontal vorticity which can be tilted into the vertical as rapid cumulus growth occurs overhead. This is why you see so many waterspouts in Hawai'i or the Florida Keys. The air mass in place Sunday was primed for this, and reviewing the radar data there is no coherent velocity pattern to suggest rotation in the convection aloft. So I'm led to believe that this was a vorticity stretching example, and not supercellular in nature.

 

How'd it look up there? I don't even remember what the setup was like that day. 

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Yeah we thought so too, especially when we forecast for two of the five biggest lakes in New England.

 

But I get it, I mean if it isn't considered a marine zone, it's a land zone. And if something touches down there it's a tornado for all intents and purposes. Unfortunately there are different processes at play sometimes, where the radar is completely useless for spotting these signatures.

 

So what happens when a water spout from the ocean moves over land, then back over a bay, then back over land - haha   j/k

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The dew is down to 36F at my local ASOS/MVL, one county east of BTV.

BTV has a 70F lake that's seven miles wide upwind of it.

 

 

For NW New England this is an easy call.   I'm speaking to the frost advisory and Specials for the Rt 2 corridor down here.  

 

I have no doubt that we start advecting drier air here this afternoon, just curious how much that will be with still green foliage and recent soil moisture increases. 

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