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September weather discussion


Ginx snewx

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So march is no longer a winter month but september is ?

 

It is so hard not to comment on this, but it just makes one's head explode trying to figure out why Blizz does what he does and when he does it. 

 

What I think we are seeing, is that he really is a cold-weather lover more than heat... he's tired of the heat and bored.  He switched to cold pretty early this year.  The last two years he's held onto the "yay heat" cheerleading squad through September.

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This could shape up to be a dry month especially if we don't get any tropical activity

 

 

I have had 3.76 and it's pouring as I type

 

I'd assume he's probably talking more about the overall weather pattern coming up, vs. the first 3 days of the month.  Say the month ran from September 5 through October 5 or something. It does look pretty dry overall and September is often a dry month if no tropical moisture or storms are in the general circulation.  Its an all or nothing month, and the first three days of the month prove that, lol.  You could have 4" through September 4th, but then nothing through the 20th and folks are complaining about their lawns even though you've "had 4 inches in September."

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I'd assume he's probably talking more about the overall weather pattern coming up, vs. the first 3 days of the month.  Say the month ran from September 5 through October 5 or something. It does look pretty dry overall and September is often a dry month if no tropical moisture or storms are in the general circulation.  Its an all or nothing month, and the first three days of the month prove that, lol.  You could have 4" through September 4th, but then nothing through the 20th and folks are complaining about their lawns even though you've "had 4 inches in September."

exactamundo!

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I'd assume he's probably talking more about the overall weather pattern coming up, vs. the first 3 days of the month. Say the month ran from September 5 through October 5 or something. It does look pretty dry overall and September is often a dry month if no tropical moisture or storms are in the general circulation. Its an all or nothing month, and the first three days of the month prove that, lol. You could have 4" through September 4th, but then nothing through the 20th and folks are complaining about their lawns even though you've "had 4 inches in September."

Dude you got all over Kevin because he mentioned how dry August was and you pointed to BDLs 5 inch monthly total, you do know that came in two TSTORMS. It's Sept 3 I am about normal for the entire month. Who knows what that normal is based on, and who knows what happens the rest of the month.
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Dude you got all over Kevin because he mentioned how dry August was and you pointed to BDLs 5 inch monthly total, you do know that came in two TSTORMS. It's Sept 3 I am about normal for the entire month. Who knows what that normal is based on, and who knows what happens the rest of the month.

 

Easy there Ginxy... not trying to tell you its going to be dry in your backyard, just saying how I interpreted Bryan's post.  It looks relatively dry the next two weeks and his assumption seemed right in that September can be a dry month without any tropical systems as we usually don't have many synoptic systems...its mostly just precip from FROPAs.  And August would be a good example then of how these localized heavy rainers can skew things if you guys felt August was dry overall.  I wasn't there, I can't say.  I can just go by what's reported at the various stations we all use to compare the weather from one region to the next.

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Easy there Ginxy... not trying to tell you its going to be dry in your backyard, just saying how I interpreted Bryan's post.  It looks relatively dry the next two weeks and his assumption seemed right in that September can be a dry month without any tropical systems as we usually don't have many synoptic systems...its mostly just precip from FROPAs.  And August would be a good example then of how these localized heavy rainers can skew things if you guys felt August was dry overall.  I wasn't there, I can't say.  I can just go by what's reported at the various stations we all use to compare the weather from one region to the next.

Exactly why I brought up your posts to Kevin, stats do not always tell the story.
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Easy there Ginxy... not trying to tell you its going to be dry in your backyard, just saying how I interpreted Bryan's post.  It looks relatively dry the next two weeks and his assumption seemed right in that September can be a dry month without any tropical systems as we usually don't have many synoptic systems...its mostly just precip from FROPAs.  And August would be a good example then of how these localized heavy rainers can skew things if you guys felt August was dry overall.  I wasn't there, I can't say.  I can just go by what's reported at the various stations we all use to compare the weather from one region to the next.

September does have the highest monthly precip standard deviation at BDL, so it can be a bit of a feast or famine month.

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Looks like another major cold down end of next week after the nasty torch mid week

How nasty?  What sort of highs can the region expect?  Torch to me now is upper 80s and above or roughly a +10 on highs.  It's been 2+ weeks since it's been that high.  Sitting at 57 for a low.  Feels great outside. 

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Meh to the torch. Doesn't look anything special to me.

 

The pattern next week could be rather interesting with some more potential for strong convection but it will really depend on the strength of any moisture return and whether we can get into the warm sector.  It's a nice NW flow aloft and we're moving into the time of year now where the westerlies begin to strengthen again so hopefully we can get into some good shear.  

 

The GFS and Euro actually seem to be in fairly well agreement of the pattern next week, of course with some differences regarding strength of the western ridge and such but both have generally the same look.  

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