New England Storm Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/18/2013 at 8:00 PM, mfastx said: Awesome. Love those long duration events. Ditto, gonna get my camera ready and head for the beach if this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 As we discussed yesterday ensembles were the way to go and the showers move across progressively Sat nite into Sunday morning and no ridiculous coastal like the op runs had. More cool fall weather next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 10:35 AM, Wx Hype said: As we discussed yesterday ensembles were the way to go and the showers move across progressively Sat nite into Sunday morning and no ridiculous coastal like the op runs had. More cool fall weather next week. Boring begets boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Sneaky cold in OWD with a low of 38. Looks like a warm few days coming up with cool nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 at least there'll be some showers around on sunday to break up this stretch of weather. man...what a boring time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 1:16 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: at least there'll be some showers around on sunday to break up this stretch of weather. man...what a boring time. happy about showers breaking up beautiful weather? i mean if its going to be dull might as well embrace beautiful, showers in of themselves are boring too eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 1:21 PM, Ginxy said: happy about showers breaking up beautiful weather? i mean if its going to be dull and beautiful, showers in of themselves are boring too eh? they certainly are boring. but less so than 10 straight days of sunshine and 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 1:24 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: they certainly are boring. but less so than 10 straight days of sunshine and 70F. I hope we run right up until mid fall with boring then right into coastal season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 1:24 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: they certainly are boring. but less so than 10 straight days of sunshine and 70F. Agreed, this weather has been mind numbing. Day after day of 70s and sun is the lamest IMO. Oh look a cloud, exhilarating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 There's some warm Octobers on the analog list right now. Wouldn't be surprised if we at least start the month pretty mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 The upcoming pattern looks boring to me, but I've enjoyed the last week. I enjoy the temp step down every fall even if there is little interesting weather associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 1:52 PM, dendrite said: The upcoming pattern looks boring to me, but I've enjoyed the last week. I enjoy the temp step down every fall even if there is little interesting weather associated with it. +1 I could not agree more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 80 on Friday at CEF is 10 AN but certainly nothing to write home about. Good for the country aficionados that will be in attendance for Hunter Hayes I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 1:49 PM, ORH_wxman said: There's some warm Octobers on the analog list right now. Wouldn't be surprised if we at least start the month pretty mild.yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Storm is gone for next Mon/Tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 1:49 PM, ORH_wxman said: There's some warm Octobers on the analog list right now. Wouldn't be surprised if we at least start the month pretty mild. All the day 8 and 11 GFS ens analogs and the following winters yield this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 What October ended up with the current analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Mine and some other mets feelings are the first part of Oct thru day 15 is cooler than normal. -Nao and continued troughing should hopefully get us there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 I don't like the GGEM analog list all that much...if you take them off, we torch in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 3:38 PM, ORH_wxman said: I don't like the GGEM analog list all that much...if you take them off, we torch in October. Those are all GFS Ens and its a torcheroo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 oct through dec looks above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 3:51 PM, forkyfork said: oct through dec looks above normal Late Nov to Dec looks great for winter lovers north of NYC. October is toasty I look forward to Roger Smiths mid October hybrid bomb, looks like the pattern would support it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 3:51 PM, forkyfork said: oct through dec looks above normal based on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 decent rain on sunday with that wave forming nearby on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 little window on the GFS for some downpours/thunder sunday afternoon from around BOS down to PYM and the Cape. little surge of instability as the jet starts to crank and heights fall / temps aloft cool. wave is almost a bit winter-like in how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 3:42 PM, Ginxy said: Those are all GFS Ens and its a torcheroo I didn't see any 2001, 1996, 1984, or 1955 on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 4:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: I didn't see any 2001, 1996, 1984, or 1955 on the GEFS. This includes Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 4:50 PM, Ginxy said: This includes Canadian? Yes, the maps that say "MAN" mean they were manually created...they probably weighted the Canadian in there. Note how the two "Super GFSENSM" maps don't have those years. Not that its a big deal...even including those years you still get a warmish October composite...just less of one. I'm not sure if October will end up warm, but I think right now I would lean that way. But a strong cold snap could easily change that later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 4:38 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: little window on the GFS for some downpours/thunder sunday afternoon from around BOS down to PYM and the Cape. little surge of instability as the jet starts to crank and heights fall / temps aloft cool. wave is almost a bit winter-like in how it evolves. Keep it east. East is best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 On 9/19/2013 at 4:57 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yes, the maps that say "MAN" mean they were manually created...they probably weighted the Canadian in there. Note how the two "Super GFSENSM" maps don't have those years. Not that its a big deal...even including those years you still get a warmish October composite...just less of one. I'm not sure if October will end up warm, but I think right now I would lean that way. But a strong cold snap could easily change that later in the month. oh yea I thought the manual added years were GEF, my bad, yea give me a 10 or 12 Oct and the following winter and I will be chucking wood like a wood chuck could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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