Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Severe Wx & Flood Threat Through Tuesday


weatherwiz

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 637
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Storms have been more in the way of "pulse-like" type the past few days as there has been hardly any in the way of upper wind support as vertical shear values have been pretty weak.  Moderate amounts of instability thanks to high amounts of low-level moisture, and at times, some steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with very weak forcing from weak boundary to our NW and subtle s/w moving through have allowed for showers/t'storms to develop.  

 

Across RI and SE MA there has been a very weak boundary draped across that region which has really enhanced convection across that area.  Across SE CT, they are further removed from any enhancement from boundaries and there just isn't a great deal of support aloft. 

 

Tomorrow though that should change, and actually even later tonight.  I would expect much more activity to work through SE CT tomorrow.

Amazing since I've been basically screwed from any major heavy rains.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure yet. Models at first glance aren't particularly unstable but I feel like they've done a bad job and underdone instability.

 

We'll just have to really watch how things unfold across eastern NY over these next few hours.  I wouldn't really rule out some strong storms into western MA/CT but just not sure if we will have great enough support until much later on.  Looks like lapse rates should continue to steepen, which if that does occur then the presence of CAA at 500mb should support a fairly unstable airmass through the night and shear should increase as well.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'll just have to really watch how things unfold across eastern NY over these next few hours. I wouldn't really rule out some strong storms into western MA/CT but just not sure if we will have great enough support until much later on. Looks like lapse rates should continue to steepen, which if that does occur then the presence of CAA at 500mb should support a fairly unstable airmass through the night and shear should increase as well.

I know the mesos kept all the convection to our north Sat nite. Seems like with cooling aloft tonight and steep deep lapse rates, we could bang deep into the night like then
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know the mesos kept all the convection to our north Sat nite. Seems like with cooling aloft tonight and steep deep lapse rates, we could bang deep into the night like then

 

I really would not be surprised to see some big storms fire during the middle of the night which could pose a threat for hail.  Winds aloft will be strengthening, especially the mid-level jet and 500mb temps will continue to cool leading to steepening lapse rates which is what you want to keep or even increase instability at night.

 

What I think is this;

 

1) If we do see big storms tonight then the threat tomorrow is purely across RI/E MA as I would think this suggests the front is close.

 

2) If we see very little overnight, then we would have the threat be for tomorrow and including much of SNE as opposed to eastern sections.

 

This isn't saying that if we see a few storms tonight we are cooked...it means if we see widespread storms which are strong/healthy looking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...