CT Rain Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Parts of RI gonna have 7+". I barely have 0.4 or so. They're making up for March 2013 super-subsidence. Sucks they're doing so at 74F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Storms have been more in the way of "pulse-like" type the past few days as there has been hardly any in the way of upper wind support as vertical shear values have been pretty weak. Moderate amounts of instability thanks to high amounts of low-level moisture, and at times, some steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with very weak forcing from weak boundary to our NW and subtle s/w moving through have allowed for showers/t'storms to develop. Across RI and SE MA there has been a very weak boundary draped across that region which has really enhanced convection across that area. Across SE CT, they are further removed from any enhancement from boundaries and there just isn't a great deal of support aloft. Tomorrow though that should change, and actually even later tonight. I would expect much more activity to work through SE CT tomorrow. Amazing since I've been basically screwed from any major heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 They're making up for March 2013 super-subsidence. Sucks they're doing so at 74F.What you think fo tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Big storms in ENY forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 2, 2013 Author Share Posted September 2, 2013 Amazing since I've been basically screwed from any major heavy rains. Gotta love how convection can be. One town gets 4'' and a few miles hardly much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Eastern areas had a LLJ and higher KI values too along with some MU CAPE. into today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Gotta love how convection can be. One town gets 4'' and a few miles hardly much Yeah, about 1/3" over the 3 days. LOL. Stuff in RI looks to miss as well. Stuff by BID may make it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Had some nice booms this morning as storms fired about ten miles to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 What you think fo tonight? Not sure yet. Models at first glance aren't particularly unstable but I feel like they've done a bad job and underdone instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Not sure yet. Models at first glance aren't particularly unstable but I feel like they've done a bad job and underdone instability.I don't think any guidance had those storms Sat nite did they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 2, 2013 Author Share Posted September 2, 2013 Not sure yet. Models at first glance aren't particularly unstable but I feel like they've done a bad job and underdone instability. We'll just have to really watch how things unfold across eastern NY over these next few hours. I wouldn't really rule out some strong storms into western MA/CT but just not sure if we will have great enough support until much later on. Looks like lapse rates should continue to steepen, which if that does occur then the presence of CAA at 500mb should support a fairly unstable airmass through the night and shear should increase as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Bob gonna get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 We'll just have to really watch how things unfold across eastern NY over these next few hours. I wouldn't really rule out some strong storms into western MA/CT but just not sure if we will have great enough support until much later on. Looks like lapse rates should continue to steepen, which if that does occur then the presence of CAA at 500mb should support a fairly unstable airmass through the night and shear should increase as well.I know the mesos kept all the convection to our north Sat nite. Seems like with cooling aloft tonight and steep deep lapse rates, we could bang deep into the night like then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Bob gonna get crushedEverythings been missing to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 I don't think any guidance had those storms Sat nite did they? Not sure was sort of out of the loop on Saturday. Based on the 00z soundings it wasn't a surprise that they formed though... I went back and looked Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 SPC WRF just lights us up later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Finally breaking out of the clouds up here...summit ridge keeps poking out into the blue sky from time to time. Cloudy below us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 2, 2013 Author Share Posted September 2, 2013 I know the mesos kept all the convection to our north Sat nite. Seems like with cooling aloft tonight and steep deep lapse rates, we could bang deep into the night like then I really would not be surprised to see some big storms fire during the middle of the night which could pose a threat for hail. Winds aloft will be strengthening, especially the mid-level jet and 500mb temps will continue to cool leading to steepening lapse rates which is what you want to keep or even increase instability at night. What I think is this; 1) If we do see big storms tonight then the threat tomorrow is purely across RI/E MA as I would think this suggests the front is close. 2) If we see very little overnight, then we would have the threat be for tomorrow and including much of SNE as opposed to eastern sections. This isn't saying that if we see a few storms tonight we are cooked...it means if we see widespread storms which are strong/healthy looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 barely .20in in lynn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 SPC WRF just lights us up later today. You got a link to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 2, 2013 Author Share Posted September 2, 2013 SPC WRF just lights us up later today. Yes it does..big time which is really intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 You got a link to that? Well western areas... http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 2, 2013 Author Share Posted September 2, 2013 Well off to go work a concert in the Center...directing traffic. Be back by 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Yes it does..big time which is really intriguing. The RPM doesn't even have a drop though so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Thanks. HRRR gives ENY some good stuff. But everything magically disappears by 01z (9pm EST) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Steady RA right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Northern FF Cty has gotten crushed. 2-4 inches of rain and trees down. Monster cell and training Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Can hear rumbles at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Northern FF Cty has gotten crushed. 2-4 inches of rain and trees down. Monster cell and training I can hear and see it off to the north. Constant Thunder past 2 hrs....nothing at all here outside of some drizzle mid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 I can hear and see it off to the north. Constant Thunder past 2 hrs....nothing at all here outside of some drizzle mid morning.Redding got hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.