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Severe Wx & Flood Threat Through Tuesday


weatherwiz

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Hey Wiz - I edited the titled and pinned your thread to take us through Tuesday's severe threat. 

 

haha I was just about to edit this!

 

Tuesday is actually becoming quite intriguing as the models continue to slow down the timing of the front.  If we can manage any sunshine and boost instability values Tuesday could be pretty active with at least convection.

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I'm hoping the convection in NW CT and N CT keeps lifting north into Mass. Would prefer more missing than hitting today since I was a bit of a debbie downer on today's convection chances this morning on the air. 

 

The convection keeps forming and moving right along the boundary that is in place so I would think much of the state is fine but that could change as we move towards the evening.  This is why I think flash flooding across parts of NW/N CT is pretty high today

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I'm hoping the convection in NW CT and N CT keeps lifting north into Mass. Would prefer more missing than hitting today since I was a bit of a debbie downer on today's convection chances this morning on the air. 

 

I think it will conitnue to move north. I guess maybe NW CT it lingers, but it looks like this aftn is more north. I do wonder if that thing near NYC will do anything.

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I could see SE MA and the Cape getting into it again.

 

Yeah there is a definite convergence boundary draped across that area and as the front slowly sags south and east along with waves traversing the boundary that should really make for a focal point of torrential downpours/convection across those areas.  Some spots when all said and done will be looking at several inches plus of rainfall.  

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I'm hoping the convection in NW CT and N CT keeps lifting north into Mass. Would prefer more missing than hitting today since I was a bit of a debbie downer on today's convection chances this morning on the air.

So do I, working at Woodstock fair this afternoon/evening and heavy stuff staying north now; hoping that trend remains!

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The NAM is looking pretty good for Tuesday. The forecast soundings show a combination of good instability, kinematic support, low-level veering and drier air aloft. It is the NAM, but the trend could be our friend...

54hr NAM forecast sounding for BDR:

post-533-0-20362000-1378057219_thumb.jpg

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Check out these DP obs out in Springfield !

 

011858 SCT018 BKN140 BKN250 10                        77 76 1203 112 000
011850 SCT017 BKN140 10                                     77 75 1505
011829 SCT010 BKN026 BKN140 BKN250 7 VCTS        77 77 VR02 

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Even NCEP is onto the Euro's happiness ... only weighting 10% of the Euro for it's depth continuity issues.  Although I disagree with them a little that the Euro introducing amplitude -- I have been carefully keeping track...The continuity has definitely been the other way. 

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The 18z GFS actually has gone back to the original idea of actually moving the front through quicker on Tuesday and keeping any strong/severe potential east of the CT River.  However, the 18z NAM actually shows potential for a fairly sizable severe weather event including the possibility of a few tornadoes and definitely a large hail threat. 

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The 18z GFS actually has gone back to the original idea of actually moving the front through quicker on Tuesday and keeping any strong/severe potential east of the CT River. However, the 18z NAM actually shows potential for a fairly sizable severe weather event including the possibility of a few tornadoes and definitely a large hail threat.

15z SREF and Euro like further east too, but we'll see.
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