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Severe Wx & Flood Threat Through Tuesday


weatherwiz

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

***STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS***
***AREAS OF CONCERN: RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***
***THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN***
***WITH HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE***

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAMPERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAJORITY OF FOCUS IS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 35 KNOTS COUPLES WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. IT IS LIKELY THE AIRMASS DISCERNED
WITH THE 12Z OKX SOUNDING IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE PRESENT COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH DEEP
AND WIDE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY PROFILE AND STRONG UNI-DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT LIKELY ONGOING BENEATH THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET AS SEEN PER LATEST HRRR/RAP
ANALYSIS.

EVEN THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAMPER THE SOUTH SHORE INCLUDING
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...THE HIGH DEWPOINT AIR...STRONG DEEP-LAYER
LIFT...AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS APPEAR TO SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUCH A TROPICAL-MARINE ENVIRONMENT.

THREATS STILL PERSIST WITH STORMS...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...
HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKING ALLOWING FOR GREATER CURVATURE WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL PROFILE. SUBSEQUENTLY...AND NO SURPRISE...RADAR IS
DISCERNING ROTATION WITHIN THE STORMS OVER THE WATERS. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS TO 100 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...WITH LIKELIES UP THROUGH THE BOSTON
CORRIDOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING INTO
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION. THREATS PLACED IN THE FORECAST.

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