Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Looks like we're seeing the beginnings of the line now in far E NY..River Valley on East looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 If 2000-2500 Cape can develop in eastern areas someone will see golf balls today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 A little nipply here in GC as the temp goes backward. Down to 68.0/62 off an early high of 70.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 A little nipply here in GC as the temp goes backward. Down to 68.0/62 off an early high of 70.1. It's fair to say that you and I are out of today's game. Not sure if we were ever in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 It's fair to say that you and I are out of today's game. Not sure if we were ever in it. Agreed--never had a horse in this race. Temp continues to drop. How's it down by you? 67.5/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Agreed--never had a horse in this race. Temp continues to drop. How's it down by you? 67.5/61 73.7/65. Lot better than the last 3 days I daresay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Nice writeup from BOX.. ***STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY******THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN******WITH HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE***SYNOPTICALLY...SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSONVALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO MAINE...COLLOCATED WITH AN AMPLIFYINGTROUGH AND DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE /AS DISCERNED VIA WATER VAPORIMAGERY/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AREENHANCING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. IN RESPONSE...COOLER AIR ISBUILDING OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS.LOCALLY...EVALUATING THE 12Z UPTON NEW YORK SOUNDING /OKX/ MUCAPEVALUES ARE UP TO 2500 J/KG IN A REGION OF DECENT UNI-DIRECTIONALSOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SHEAR AT 35 KNOTS. CONSIDERING THE DECENTMID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL UPPERLEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE ENHANCINGUPPER-LEVEL WINDS...THERE IS THE EXPECTATION THAT COUPLED WITHFRONTAL LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULDPREVAIL. THE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ENTIRELYPLAUSIBLE.ALSO...DISCERNED FROM LATEST HRRR/RAP FORECAST ANALYSIS A SECONDARYTHETAE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOWAHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLLOCATED WITH THE UNSTABLE AXIS OFMUCAPE AND NOTING THE OKX SOUNDING PWAT OF 1.65...THERE IS THEADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODINGAS MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN SATURATED WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAINTHIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING 4 TO 7 INCHES.A BIG CAVEAT...CLOUD COVER. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER ALONG THESOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. WHILE CLEARING HAS PROCEEDEDACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVERWESTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT IS THROWING UP ASUBSTANTIAL CLOUD SHIELD OVER THOSE AREAS WHICH HAVE SEENCLEARING. THIS MAY LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...THOUGHCLEARING IS NOTED TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONNECTICUTVALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Meh... not sure what to make of today. Some threat but I'm not overly excited right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 SE Long Island just getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Debris over eastern CT may be a limiting factor. I like eastern Mass. for the best shot at some isolated strong to severe storms. Maybe right into Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Meh... not sure what to make of today. Some threat but I'm not overly excited right now. What are the pros besides good mid level lapse rates in your mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Looks like LI is the winner with the last threat. I do not see anything in E areas of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 What are the pros besides good mid level lapse rates in your mind? Well there's pretty good deep layer shear and at least marginal instability. Lot of negatives out there as well but there's definitely a window for severe from say HVN/IJD through BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 surface front seems pretty far east already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Debris over eastern CT may be a limiting factor. I like eastern Mass. for the best shot at some isolated strong to severe storms. Maybe right into Boston. Hmm...where have I heard that before? Oh right...before every severe or quasi-severe threat in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 surface front seems pretty far east already.its over my dp is dropping faster than Wiz off a bar stool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 BOX seems awfully bullish over a wide area. I don't know how widespread it will be. Not the best sign that lone tstm shat the bed all by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 BOX seems awfully bullish over a wide area. I don't know how widespread it will be. Not the best sign that lone tstm shat the bed all by itself. yeah i agree. front is already half-way through SNE...and really the best moisture is pooled up along the south coast and the cape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 hrrr said it was over except for far e ct and orh eastward since earlier this morning really. latest run sent a segment right through boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 still a lot of cinh on the mesoanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 yeah i agree. front is already half-way through SNE...and really the best moisture is pooled up along the south coast and the cape...yep you might get clipped but West of SRI is toast. Big airmass change with no rain or wind here. Just a big DP drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 BOX seems awfully bullish over a wide area. I don't know how widespread it will be. Not the best sign that lone tstm shat the bed all by itself. I'd like to see a single CU at this point... before getting interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 According to dewpoints, the front is somewhere in a line torrington-springfield-athol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Would be a fitting end to the convective season, a total fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Dewpoints range still from 67-70 anywhere east of that line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 According to dewpoints, the front is somewhere in a line torrington-springfield-atholI have been outside all morning big difference in the last 1/2 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I have been outside all morning big difference in the last 1/2 hour It feels a little drier here also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Clouds are increasing more than decreasing too... take a peek at vis sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 At least I'll be able to focus on homework today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Some great unforeseeable force just hates you guys and is engineering these disappointments. Ha. I'm looking at the hi res vis imagery loop of an anvil blanket spreading up over eastern sections, where/when there is any last hope of getting some action going ... and knowing that when that vil comes over head, it's CAPE dimming game over. Yet, out on Montauk Point at the eastern end of LI they are getting unrelentingly bombed by training cells -- the whole construct of this mid day activity could not be more wrong. Or should we say ... more right to doom all to ennui. All these variables transpiring in perfect wrongness. That's some serious bad-ass luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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