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Severe Wx & Flood Threat Through Tuesday


weatherwiz

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Nice writeup from BOX..

 

 




***STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY***
***THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN***
***WITH HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE***

SYNOPTICALLY...SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO MAINE...COLLOCATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH AND DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE /AS DISCERNED VIA WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ENHANCING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. IN RESPONSE...COOLER AIR IS
BUILDING OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS.

LOCALLY...EVALUATING THE 12Z UPTON NEW YORK SOUNDING /OKX/ MUCAPE
VALUES ARE UP TO 2500 J/KG IN A REGION OF DECENT UNI-DIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SHEAR AT 35 KNOTS. CONSIDERING THE DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE ENHANCING
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...THERE IS THE EXPECTATION THAT COUPLED WITH
FRONTAL LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
PREVAIL. THE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ENTIRELY
PLAUSIBLE.

ALSO...DISCERNED FROM LATEST HRRR/RAP FORECAST ANALYSIS A SECONDARY
THETAE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLLOCATED WITH THE UNSTABLE AXIS OF
MUCAPE AND NOTING THE OKX SOUNDING PWAT OF 1.65...THERE IS THE
ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
AS MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN SATURATED WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN
THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING 4 TO 7 INCHES.

A BIG CAVEAT...CLOUD COVER. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. WHILE CLEARING HAS PROCEEDED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
WESTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT IS THROWING UP A
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD SHIELD OVER THOSE AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN
CLEARING. THIS MAY LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...THOUGH
CLEARING IS NOTED TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
VALLEY.
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Some great unforeseeable force just hates you guys and is engineering these disappointments.    Ha.  I'm looking at the hi res vis imagery loop of an anvil blanket spreading up over eastern sections, where/when there is any last hope of getting some action going ... and knowing that when that vil comes over head, it's CAPE dimming game over.   Yet, out on Montauk Point at the eastern end of LI they are getting unrelentingly bombed by training cells --  the whole construct of this mid day activity could not be more wrong.  Or should we say ... more right to doom all to ennui.   All these variables transpiring in perfect wrongness.  

 

That's some serious bad-ass luck 

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