eyewall Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Thank you guys and I am actually going to create a thread and include both enhanced and non-enhanced photos so you can the lack of lighting I had lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Amazing photos!! Wiz, the 23z HRRR looked promising, but now the 00z and 01z runs are similar to the 18/00z NAM: A broken line of showers/storms starts to develop east of the CT River tomorrow, but doesn't amount to much. Realistically, that's probably what is most likely to happen, with maybe a stray severe cell or two in eastern New England. It will largely be a nowcasting situation, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Some rain just started. Some thunder, too. Doesn't look very frightening on the radar, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 Amazing photos!! Wiz, the 23z HRRR looked promising, but now the 00z and 01z runs are similar to the 18/00z NAM: A broken line of showers/storms starts to develop east of the CT River tomorrow, but doesn't amount to much. Realistically, that's probably what is most likely to happen, with maybe a stray severe cell or two in eastern New England. It will largely be a nowcasting situation, so we'll see. The 0z WRF doesn't really develop much until after 18-19z really but does so virtually right along the CT River. The HRRR is much earlier but in the general vicinity. Will be interesting to see how things look around 8-9 AM. Looking forward to the 12z soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Holy **** at those wind velocities near UticaIt turns out the hail core is as impressive as it looked:2103 200 SYLVAN BEACH ONEIDA NY 4321 7573 PICTURE POSTED TO JILL REALES FACEBOOK PAGE VIA WKTV-TV. ESTIMATED BY PICTURE TO BE AT LEAST 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. (BGM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 It turns out the hail core is as impressive as it looked: 2103 200 SYLVAN BEACH ONEIDA NY 4321 7573 PICTURE POSTED TO JILL REALES FACEBOOK PAGE VIA WKTV-TV. ESTIMATED BY PICTURE TO BE AT LEAST 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. (BGM) There had to be something impressive in that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 How can you view RAP soundings in bufkit? Trying to download the link from EWALL and it doesn't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Good sign to see clear skies out there this morning. Dews are down though which was a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 BOX pretty amped up AS THIS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...BROAD LIFT WILLCOMBINE WITH A SW LOW-MID LVL JET APPROACHING 30-40 KT THISAFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEADOF THE FRONT. DRY AIR AND COOLING H5 TEMPS FROM THE ASSOCIATEDTROF IS EXPECTED STEEPEN LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7.0 C/KM BY THEAFTERNOON HOURS WHILE THE JET WILL PROVIDE 0-3 AND 0-6 KM SHEARVALUES OF 30 TO NEAR 40 KT RESPECTIVELY. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OFEARLY DAY SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME LOWLVL FOG/STRATUS...ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1500J/KG BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...ALL THE PIECES ARE IN PLACE FOR ASOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROMTHE CT VALLEY E. WILL JUST NEED TO MONITOR THE BREAK UP OFFOG/STRATUS AS THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT.GIVEN THE THREAT...AND RECENT TREND IN GUIDANCE...WILLCONTINUE AND EVEN EXPAND THE LIKELY P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 The HRRR did a fantastic job with the overnight convection. As soon as it hit CT it just dried up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 How can you view RAP soundings in bufkit? Trying to download the link from EWALL and it doesn't work Bob Maxon @bobmaxon2h In-house RPM is bullish on loud thunder and heavy rain late morning and early PM, best chance central and eastern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Looks like eastern areas still have potential. Front is just on the western NE doorstep, but SE CT into RI, E MA and ME still look pretty good. RAP wants to bring in 40kt bulk shear by midday and even though the winds near the surface are mainly SW (not as much veering as some earlier forecast), there should be a fair amount of instability. Limiting factors are timing, cloud-cover and lower dews. I'd venture a guess that we could see a few strong, to locally severe storms, but nothing widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 Bob Maxon @bobmaxon2h In-house RPM is bullish on loud thunder and heavy rain late morning and early PM, best chance central and eastern CT. Everything definitely favors central/eastern CT into RI and E MA today. The question just is how strong/severe the storms an become. If we are able to get rid of clouds/fog early enough, given how lapse rates are steepening with high dews and warm low-level airmass, instability values could soar quite quickly and could be underdone by the models which is what we really have to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 The HRRR did a fantastic job with the overnight convection. As soon as it hit CT it just dried up.It also did an outstanding job yesterday morning of nailing down that squall line to develop between SYR and ALB. Too bad it's not showing anything too crazy today, but still indicates an eastern SNE risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Everything definitely favors central/eastern CT into RI and E MA today. The question just is how strong/severe the storms an become. If we are able to get rid of clouds/fog early enough, given how lapse rates are steepening with high dews and warm low-level airmass, instability values could soar quite quickly and could be underdone by the models which is what we really have to watch for. It's totally clear in most of interior CT. That's not the issue..It's the timing..It's about 3-4 hours too early coming thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 It also did an outstanding job yesterday morning of nailing down that squall line to develop between SYR and ALB. Too bad it's not showing anything too crazy today, but still indicates an eastern SNE risk. yeah both the HRRR and WRF pretty much have development occurring right around Hartford and then sliding east. I think we'll see some isolated severe reports cross NE CT and northern RI and into interior SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Pretty much clear here in Boston. Most of the fog is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 It's totally clear in most of interior CT. That's not the issue..It's the timing..It's about 3-4 hours too early coming thru Socked in with low clouds/fog here but you would think that would burn off. Timing is definitely the main issue, however, if this burns off more quickly the atmosphere is primed for temperatures to rise very quickly and with high dews/steep lapse rates instability could build rapidly...right now models only have around 1000-1500 J/KG of MLcape developing but those values really could exceed 2000 J/KG with stronger heating earlier on which would be a major help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Socked in with low clouds/fog here but you would think that would burn off. Timing is definitely the main issue, however, if this burns off more quickly the atmosphere is primed for temperatures to rise very quickly and with high dews/steep lapse rates instability could build rapidly...right now models only have around 1000-1500 J/KG of MLcape developing but those values really could exceed 2000 J/KG with stronger heating earlier on which would be a major help Clear as can be here..I can see for miles and miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 5.21" of rain yesterday. Also spent most of the day without power. Socked in with fog right now. 64.3°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 Clear as can be here..I can see for miles and miles Dealing with low crap here but it seems pretty thin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 IJD flipped to FEW, still some fog though. CLR from N RI into ORH County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for southern Nassau County and Suffolk County on western Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Clear, warm and humid this morning. Lets see if the area can mistr anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 It looks like there is a weak low near NYC and CAPES are high there already. Subtle S/W too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 That cell had a monster 2.55'' hail icon on it for a scan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 It looks like there is a weak low near NYC and CAPES are high there already. Subtle S/W too. Translation for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 upton going for 60% chance of storms for me--figured I'd be too far west. AFD says the front is from HFD to HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Translation for us? I really don't know. Pros and cons for today. I still favor ern CT and RI/SE MA for anything good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 If the latest RAP is correct, there could be a very brief window for supercells today...don't think we will have enough dynamical stuff going on for a spin-up possibility but could have some big hailers if we destabilize enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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