Severe Wx & Flood Threat Through Tuesday

[weatherwiz]

First off, upper level winds and mid-level winds from 500mb on up completely blow...there is no question about that, and of course those two variables alone will be a limiting factor, at least when it comes to more widespread aerial coverage of convection.  Another negative factor is computer models are deamplifying the s/w energy as it moves into New England, although some of the latest runs, especially on the GFS actually look to try and amplify it once again later in the day.  This will also affect how much convergence there is across the region as well.

 

Anyways, tomorrow looks like it will be a high Cape day, especially if we are able to get some good sunshine early on which could boost temps into the mid-80's for some locals. Combine this with dews in the upper 60's to perhaps 70F, and actually some fairly steep mid-level lapse rates and Capes could run in the 1500-3000 J/KG range with LI values in the -5C to -8C range.  

 

Despite weak winds aloft, winds at 850mb are actually decent and increase to around 25 knots late in the afternoon from the SW with winds at 700mb around 20 knots or so from the NW...this will actually yield some elevated 0-3km helicity values tomorrow.

 

Despite little vertical shear values, the presence of high cape/elevated helicity and steep lapse rates along with lower freezing levels could actually yield a threat for some hail in the strongest of cores that develop.  Some strong wind gusts would certainly be possible as well with collapsing cores.  Of course, torrential rains will be the #1 threat.

 

Might not see a great deal of coverage tomorrow but for anyone who happens to see a storm there is a shot at seeing something decent. 

[Quincy]

You could almost argue that the Northeast is under a broad "See Text" setup for the next three days, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. None of those days looks widespread or particularly impressive, but it won't take much to trigger a few strong to locally severe storms.

 

For Saturday, the storm motion looks very slow, so even if storms don't reach severe limits, there could be some localized flash/poor-drainage flooding. What really catches the eye are some good LI's that we haven't seen in a while, in conjunction with elevated CAPE and a weak shortwave passing through.

 

Sunday is the most "meh" of the next three days. While some storms are possible, I'm not sure the severe setup is impressive. 

 

Monday has better upper level and kinematic support, but instability may be lacking. If we can break out and destabilize the atmosphere a bit more than modeled, Labor Day could be interesting too.

 

It's an evolving setup, but looking upstream, a See Text outlook quickly switched to Slight Risk and now we're severe a Severe Thunderstorm Watch over the Great Lakes with numerous severe reports out of Wisconsin. While I'm not sure the setup over-performed based off guidance, SPC was downplaying it. We'll see what tomorrow brings for the Northeast.

[CoastalWx]

Could be some elevated stuff moving into western SNE later.

[Quincy]

W CT is on the fringe of 5% wind probs today and much of SNE is under a See Text for Monday per SPC including a mention of the T word.

[Damage In Tolland]

Our worries about morning convection screwing things up have happened

[CoastalWx]

Another s/w should amplify a bit this aftn, but cloud cover will be extensive in spots. I think a decent shot of shwrs/storms later, especially western and central MA/CT. Maybe pushing east very late today.

[moneypitmike]

Another s/w should amplify a bit this aftn, but cloud cover will be extensive in spots. I think a decent shot of shwrs/storms later, especially western and central MA/CT. Maybe pushing east very late today.

 

Sounds delightful.  At least it eliminates any dilemma as to whether to cut or mow.  Although at this point, there isn't a dilemma.  Need overshadows aesthetics every time.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm sure that much of this was predicated on the assumption that we wouldn't be getting b-banged by clouds ... 

 

I looked things over yesterday and thought similarly, but I had at least partial sun in mind.  This is just weird.   It's 80/72 here with slate gray skies and occasional sprintzers of small drop rain.  

[weatherwiz]

Stuff to watch for is what's developing across central New York and sliding east

[Quincy]

Stuff to watch for is what's developing across central New York and sliding east

The air-mass in southeastern NY is fairly unstable, so things could get interesting. HRRR has been consistently blowing up some storms in the mid-Hudson Valley into western Mass. later this afternoon.

[TalcottWx]

latest hrrr stormiest areas are right along the northern mass border

[weatherwiz]

The air-mass in southeastern NY is fairly unstable, so things could get interesting. HRRR has been consistently blowing up some storms in the mid-Hudson Valley into western Mass. later this afternoon.

 

Once the s/w gets closer more activity should develop.  With such weak vertical shear though storms will be pretty much pulse like but any collapsing cores could be quite fun given the degree of instability

[weatherwiz]

Despite limited vertical shear though, helicity values are elevated so that could help cores sustain themselves a bit longer

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Possibly the loudest thunder clap I've ever heard! The dog will need hours to recover. lol

[TalcottWx]

SE NH looks stormy later on

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Great, power is out.

[weatherwiz]

warning out for Franklin cty

[weatherwiz]

Great, power is out.

 

let me know if you get any hail!

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice looking bow echo about to enter W Mass

[weatherwiz]

Nice looking bow echo about to enter W Mass

 

impressive wind velocities along with 1.26'' hail flag per ENX

[moneypitmike]

Several reports of trees and wires down in Greenfield.  There was even a report of tree/wires in Shelburne.....the storm was so close to here.  We had wind here, but nothing to take down a tree or branches.  I wonder if it might have been a lightning strike.

 

I have low confidence that the NY stuff is going to amount to much.

[weatherwiz]

Several reports of trees and wires down in Greenfield.  There was even a report of tree/wires in Shelburne.....the storm was so close to here.  We had wind here, but nothing to take down a tree or branches.  I wonder if it might have been a lightning strike.

 

I have low confidence that the NY stuff is going to amount to much.

 

There is an area with several trees/wires down along with streets closed in Greenfield.  There was some rotation but it all seemed to occur as the core collapsed so probably a microburst.

[weatherwiz]

New cells developing are going up pretty quickly, Ulster cty storm went from nothing to SVR within a few minutes.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Sun back out here ..Dimly..but out. 74.5/72 FTW..Furniture stick factor of 10

[weathafella]

Warm and muggy day. Threatening looking but we'll see.

[Christina311]

Very frizzy day. And not enough sun in eastern MA to get anything here today

[weatherwiz]

Very frizzy day. And not enough sun in eastern MA to get anything here today

 

Despite the extensive cloud cover, I doubt it has really been a negative factor.  Thanks to ample low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates, the atmosphere is still quite unstable, especially out more towards central and western New England.  There is a bit of CIN though out across eastern MA which I suppose more sun would have helped to erode.  

 

Lift really isn't all that great today though and there isn't a great deal of mid/upper level support which I think is much more of a negative factor than the amount of sun today.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Power still out, peach tree destroyed. (I'll post pics for Wiz later)

7-8pm estimate for power. 900+ out in Greenfield.

Generator and transfer panel ftw.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sounds like a wet micro in Greenfield

[Damage In Tolland]

radar estimates of 6-7 inches of rain in Greenfield..Wow