September 2013 Banter

[metalicwx366]

Something massive is coming this winter! Whether massive warmth, or cold, or normality, I can't say yet. Stay tuned.... T

Come on, you predicted the date the first named storm would form two years in a row. So when is the first freeze for the alligators and snakes in my backyard?

Btw mackerel_sky, I counted 32 for July.

[calculus1]

If you think about it we have had a loss of posters that used to drive the analytical threads, but mostly for reasons beyond the forum.

Robert - took his analysis to the paid market.

Raleigh - similar.

Eyewall - moved to Vermont. Whether or not Union Pines gets an inch of snow is probably off of his radar now.

Lookout - I believe I read health issues have rightly taken precedence.

Weather - Has taken complete break from AmWx since March, but it's very doubtful it had to do with poster quality.

That's a lot of firepower gone from one forum.

 

I'm betting Lookout and WeatherNC will both be back once the weather turns colder.  Buckeye won't want to manage this motley crew all by herself.  I can imagine that Robert and Allan will also stop by from time to time.

 

It has nothing to do with posting quality. Only mets that posting last winter were Briercreekwx(banned) Hckeywx or something like that, he is the one with the yellow tag(Only active in winter) Foothills(only active during potential significant events or crazy pattrns) Eyewall(Vermont) Deltadog(Winter or hurricane threats) Greensborowx( Occasionally pops in) Cheeznado and Isohume (Year round poster) just doesn't post that much in the SE.

 

HickoryWx is RaleighWx's brother.  I'm sure he'll be around once we get some snow possibilities.  I mean, snow possibilities for WNC.  I understand Waycross won't really be in the mix (pun intended).

 

By the way, Marion_NC_WX has been providing some nice analysis, Jon.  He's stepped up his game in the absence of other official met posters.

 

Oh yeah, one source of important analysis that has been missing lately is Brick.  CR, have you heard from him lately?

[jburns]

Oh yeah, one source of important analysis that has been missing lately is Brick.  CR, have you heard from him lately?

Sadly he drove his car into a bore hole. A fitting end for someone who was always bored.

[mackerel_sky]

How bout those Gamecocks ?

[mackerel_sky]

Looks dry for at least next 2 weeks! Here's my Metallica666 post of the day" the pattern dried up just in time for the winter!"

[kvegas-wx]

Wasnt Brick banned with Wilkes? I havent even seen him back during spring severe.....albeit it wasnt much of a season.

[metalicwx366]

Wasnt Brick banned with Wilkes? I havent even seen him back during spring severe.....albeit it wasnt much of a season.

No he wasn't banned.

[dsaur]

Come on, you predicted the date the first named storm would form two years in a row. So when is the first freeze for the alligators and snakes in my backyard?

Btw mackerel_sky, I counted 32 for July.

Well, I've already said I think Ga. sees a freeze in Sept this year.  Probably not you or me, lol.  Though I think we'll see some surprisingly low 850's before the month is out.  Frozen gators is a tough one.  I think you'll see some frosty gators come Nov, say by the 17th.

  Now, understand I'm trying to interpret spiker silk patterns, so I could be off some...it might be that you'll see toasty gators around the 17th.  The only archives I have to refer too are ancient Polynesian sailing texts, and they mostly deal with telling where land is by reading cloud patterns on the horizon.

  I am anxious to see the 0 line in Ga. once more, so I hope I pass the audition!  Tony

[Met1985]

Meh it's slow. Hey it's September and the pattern is pretty benign. Enjoy life and the weather. Oh bye the way a taste of fall coming in next weekend.

[Cold Rain]

I'm betting Lookout and WeatherNC will both be back once the weather turns colder. Buckeye won't want to manage this motley crew all by herself. I can imagine that Robert and Allan will also stop by from time to time.

HickoryWx is RaleighWx's brother. I'm sure he'll be around once we get some snow possibilities. I mean, snow possibilities for WNC. I understand Waycross won't really be in the mix (pun intended).

By the way, Marion_NC_WX has been providing some nice analysis, Jon. He's stepped up his game in the absence of other official met posters.

Oh yeah, one source of important analysis that has been missing lately is Brick. CR, have you heard from him lately?

I haven't heard a peep out of Brick. But that's probably because he hasn't had any weather to whine about. He seems to like summer weather and tends to post when a big event, that might screw him over, is forecast. He'll be back....good or bad, he'll be back.

[strongwxnc]

Just because some do not post does not mean they are not reading

 

Good disco..

[calculus1]

Just because some do not post does not mean they are not reading

 

Good disco..

 

Excellent point!  And thanks for checking in, sir!  Looking forward to some snow reports from Bostic this fall, because that usually means it's heading my way too.

[FallsLake]

Sun activity is very low right now. It's been some time since we've seen a spotless day. Maybe tomorrow???

 

http://spaceweather.com/

 

I think we've past maximum and now heading down. Some think the sun activity helps drive colder and warmer periods. The less sun spots the cooler the climate...

[buckeyefan1]

If you think about it we have had a loss of posters that used to drive the analytical threads, but mostly for reasons beyond the forum.

Robert - took his analysis to the paid market.

Raleigh - similar.

Eyewall - moved to Vermont. Whether or not Union Pines gets an inch of snow is probably off of his radar now.

Lookout - I believe I read health issues have rightly taken precedence.

Weather - Has taken complete break from AmWx since March, but it's very doubtful it had to do with poster quality.

That's a lot of firepower gone from one forum.

Indeed...sigh

 

I'm betting Lookout and WeatherNC will both be back once the weather turns colder.  Buckeye won't want to manage this motley crew all by herself.  I can imagine that Robert and Allan will also stop by from time to time.

 

 

HickoryWx is RaleighWx's brother.  I'm sure he'll be around once we get some snow possibilities.  I mean, snow possibilities for WNC.  I understand Waycross won't really be in the mix (pun intended).

 

By the way, Marion_NC_WX has been providing some nice analysis, Jon.  He's stepped up his game in the absence of other official met posters.

 

Oh yeah, one source of important analysis that has been missing lately is Brick.  CR, have you heard from him lately?

 I will manage because the se crew IS the best that amwx has to offer    

That's it in a nutshell.....step up your game if you want a more technical discussion. Besides....once this winter (and all of its glory) gets cranking, there will be plenty of mets that will stop by to share their knowledge. We have some of the best mets here in the se forum posting often enough, even during the slow times, and I can't wait to hear all about our frozen possibilities from their perspective  

 

Wasnt Brick banned with Wilkes? I havent even seen him back during spring severe.....albeit it wasnt much of a season.

Nope....Brick is enjoying playing basketball while he waits for the first taste of fall  

 

Just because some do not post does not mean they are not reading

 

Good disco..

Very much true. There hasn't been a lot to talk about other than the "big wet" and even during those times Robert, Mr. Bob, etc have stopped by for discussion. When things start happening this winter, there will be plenty of discussion  

[calculus1]

Insane hail storm in CO yesterday.  Drifts of 4-5 feet tall!  Check out the video at the top of the article.

 

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/weather/hail-rain-and-wind-interrupt-power-for-metro-area-customers

[FallsLake]

Remember this event? Not as much snow as we had initially thought (over a foot at RDU) but all the mixed sleet made the snow/ice stay around for a good amount of time.   

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/

 

Bored, not much more to do but look at past events..

[FLweather]

Remember this event? Not as much snow as we had initially thought (over a foot at RDU) but all the mixed sleet made the snow/ice stay around for a good amount of time.   

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/

 

Bored, not much more to do but look at past events..

 

 

That was a pretty decent year IMO. I ended up with about 10.5" from that storm with a season total of 18.5-19". Sadly since 09-10 been pretty much nothing since then.

[kvegas-wx]

Not making fun of the situation in CO, only calling out the NWS for their "biblical" rainfall forecasts which netted 7". If that is biblical then I would hate to hear what our friends in Hickory and Newton/Conover endured just a few short weeks ago. What is double a biblical rainfall?

Definitely a bad situation out there with their deeper valleys and steeper cliffs. But I didnt see the national news all over western NC when the roads were washing out. Also, did NC receive any Obama bucks for our disaster? I noticed it took him one day to approve federal disaster funds. (Eyeroll)

[jburns]

Not making fun of the situation in CO, only calling out the NWS for their "biblical" rainfall forecasts which netted 7". If that is biblical then I would hate to hear what our friends in Hickory and Newton/Conover endured just a few short weeks ago. What is double a biblical rainfall?

Definitely a bad situation out there with their deeper valleys and steeper cliffs. But I didnt see the national news all over western NC when the roads were washing out. Also, did NC receive any Obama bucks for our disaster? I noticed it took him one day to approve federal disaster funds. (Eyeroll)

 

I'm not saying you are wrong, but you have to take into consideration just how unusual this is.  Boulder, for instance, only averages around 20" of precip a year.  7" is around four months of rain for them so it was a pretty good wallop.

[WxJordan]

Not making fun of the situation in CO, only calling out the NWS for their "biblical" rainfall forecasts which netted 7". If that is biblical then I would hate to hear what our friends in Hickory and Newton/Conover endured just a few short weeks ago. What is double a biblical rainfall?

Definitely a bad situation out there with their deeper valleys and steeper cliffs. But I didnt see the national news all over western NC when the roads were washing out. Also, did NC receive any Obama bucks for our disaster? I noticed it took him one day to approve federal disaster funds. (Eyeroll)

 

I'm not saying you are wrong, but you have to take into consideration just how unusual this is.  Boulder, for instance, only averages around 20" of precip a year.  7" is around four months of rain for them so it was a pretty good wallop.

I agree. I actually called the NWS at the onset of the heavy rain to let them know.  I missed out on the heaviest rain by approximately 2-3 miles; however, we did receive 5 inches of rain. The difference is Boulder Creek runs right through down town. Most of the creeks and streams in Catawba County do not have houses nearby, resulting in overall less damage. Additionally, Boulder appears to be in a valley, which means orographic lift could have helped to cause the damaging flooding. I understand what you are saying. The 10 inches of rain in the Hickory/Newton-Conover area was some of the worst flooding I have seen; however, I believe what happened in Boulder was worse than what happened in southwestern Catawba County.

[DaculaWeather]

Got back last Saturday from Lincoln Nebraska where I was competing in the SCCA Solo National Championships.

There were 1053 of us competing for 40-50 National Championships. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it) I had a repeat of last year and finished 3rd again, just 0.249 seconds out of 2nd place (I was 0.865 back last year, so I was closer!)

 

Here's how it works. There are two separate courses setup, an east and a west course. You get three runs on each course, your fastest time from each course is added together and becomes your finishing time, and any cones that are hit add two seconds to that time. There is no practice but you can walk the course. The winner of our class (E Modified) was again Jeff Kiesel and he has now won 7 years in a row. The same car was in 2nd place driven by Jeff's dad, Mark. 

 

Starting off on the west course, I was a little tentative on my first run and was only the 4th fastest. But I did much better on the next run and was sitting in 2nd place. But my third and final run on the west course wasn't enough to stay ahead of Mark and I finished the day just 0.006 seconds out of 2nd place. 

 

The east course was a much faster and longer course with more room for errors. I came out fast though and after the first runs, had moved back into 2nd place (fastest time from the west course plus this 1st run). But on the 2nd run, Kiesel came back and pulled back ahead into 2nd place. I was able to narrow the gap on the 3rd run (their car was having troubles) but not enough to move back into 2nd. 

 

Results: http://www.daculaweather.com/stuff/2013_nationals/2013_em_results.txt

 

Here are some pictures and a couple of videos from the east course (there are two courses).

Pictures:

https://plus.google.com/photos/103393210667850829661/albums/5919914611976705265

 

Videos:

Run 2 East - 

Run 3 East - 

 

 

 

[calculus1]

 

Got back last Saturday from Lincoln Nebraska where I was competing in the SCCA Solo National Championships.

There were 1053 of us competing for 40-50 National Championships. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it) I had a repeat of last year and finished 3rd again, just 0.249 seconds out of 2nd place (I was 0.865 back last year, so I was closer!)

 

...

 

 

Pretty cool, Steve!  I loved the video!  I can tell from the pics that your camera is mounted on top.  I suppose it doesn't create too much extra drag.  It's hard to tell from the video, but what are the top speeds that you reach on that East course?  Thanks for sharing.

[DaculaWeather]

Thanks! No, the big flat nose of the car is a lot more drag than the GoPro. I've been mounting it on the underside of the bar... don't ask me why  I didn't do that for the Nationals??

I hit about 75mph on the east course, the car will only do about 78-80mph before the soft limiter kicks in (~7800 rpm), and I never got into the limiter. It's basically 0-80 in one gear. We lost a little time versus the V8 powered cars in exiting those low speed corners. They had more low end torque than we do (turbo 4), and could pull from low RPM's better. 

[dsaur]

Way to go Steve!!  3rd in the nation ain't nothing to sneeze at.  And, yeah, I think it's that camera. .006 from 1st?  It's the camera.  Get a lighter one and you're in, lol.

  How you know where to go at those speeds is amazing.  Cones up, cones down, it's like a maze, with paths going to no where.  And the only rubber marks in the turns. Why can't they just paint white lines?  T

[DaculaWeather]

That 0.006 was from 2nd Tony! The guy in first ran off and left us all. (EDIT: Jeff's run on the west course 

)

Being able to visualize the course is critical. It's not like you're looking at a road and it's perfectly clear where to go. Part of the skill is being able to "see" the course in your head so you know where to go and what to look for. While the cones may seem confusing (and some of them are), you always key on certain cones for visual aids and forget about the rest of them. Keep in mind, we only get to walk the course, we get no practice driving on it at all. Once we start running, all three runs have to be fast since you never know which one you'll have to stand on. Plus walking the course and driving the course are VERY different activities. I see a lot of people going out on their walks and planning where they want to be for each second of the run, but I can't do that. Once you're at speed in the car, everything changes and changes fast. All of that pre-planning goes out the window at that point and you're just reacting. One of the critical aspects of driving fast that I really stress to novices is the act of "looking ahead". You always have to be looking where you want to go next. If you're looking right in front of you, you will not be setup correctly for the next feature that's coming up. And looking ahead is easier said than done, it requires a lot of practice and focus to do it correctly, and the faster you go, the further ahead you have to look and think. 

 

All we generally have to run on around here is asphalt and you'll notice the surface in Lincoln is concrete. Concrete is MUCH grippier than asphalt (except when it's wet) and changes everything about how the car interacts with the surface. Based on last years experience on that surface, we came back and made changes to the car that made it a lot more stable. Now we've discovered that we have more changes to make over the winter to hopefully make it better for next year. But seat time on concrete is what I need more than anything. The closest concrete surface for us is down near Moultrie in SW GA, or over near Dothan, either way a long haul for a weekend. 

 

But you figure we're all a little bit crazy... I drove 17 hours one way to compete for about 6 minutes total, to have my fast runs total 122.245 seconds and to end 0.249 seconds out of 2nd place. Oh... and then 17 hours home.  And all for the glory and a trophy. 

[buckeyefan1]

That 0.006 was from 2nd Tony! The guy in first ran off and left us all. (EDIT: Jeff's run on the west course 

)

 

 

But you figure we're all a little bit crazy... I drove 17 hours one way to compete for about 6 minutes total, to have my fast runs total 122.245 seconds and to end 0.249 seconds out of 2nd place. Oh... and then 17 hours home.  And all for the glory and a trophy. 

Awesome Steve! Congrats!  

[GaWx]

1) Congrats, Steve! 3rd place is quite an accomplishment!

2) Folks,

Don't worry. I fully expect our Brick back this fall as it is getting close to that great time of year, when WOTY campaign mode gets going. Politicians could learn a thing or two from Brick, a master campaigner!

3) Tony, none of your moles have yet to appear in Savannah. I have Jack and Coke ala The Chairman of the Board ready for them. I get the impression they like to drink in style like Frank. Actually, I did hear a rumor that three of your moles have complained about the proofage drop of a few years back. As a result, those three apparently insist on less Coke than they used to like. I'll definitely keep that in mind.

4) For my Friday evening ice cream delight, I had what may very well have been my first ever Blizzard at Dairy Queen. No, my name isn't MetalMan lol. Hopefully, this will mean great things this winter. It was a Reese's PB cup version. I like to think that the Reese's version of it somehow will mean a huge sleetstorm this winter for many in the SE US. Keep hope alive, folks!

5) The Colorado flooding, which flooded many more locations than Boulder, was considered biblical in some ways and I even heard 1,000 year flood for some locations. I know someone who lives in Greeley, CO. She told me that she is dry only because she is high up on a hill. However, it along with a good bit of Greeley is like an island now and she thinks she's stuck there for at least a couple of weeks. It may be several months before nearby bridges are repaired!! 10"+ of rain in normally semiarid CO is far worse than the similar amounts that fell in NC.

[FallsLake]

Sun activity is very low right now. It's been some time since we've seen a spotless day. Maybe tomorrow???

 

http://spaceweather.com/

 

I think we've past maximum and now heading down. Some think the sun activity helps drive colder and warmer periods. The less sun spots the cooler the climate...

Sun activity continues (for the last week) to be very low. There are some that speculate that the coming minimum may be very low and long lasting. What kind of effect this has on climate is being debated. From Space Weather; they think we may be between a double maximum, but I think we're heading down.

 

<spaceweather.com>

"The quiet spell is a bit strange because 2013 is supposed to be a year of solar maximum, with lots of flares and sunspots. Supporting this view are data from NASA-supported observatories which show that the sun's magnetic field is poised to flip--a long-held sign that Solar Max has arrived. Nevertheless, solar activity is low.

One possible explanation is that Solar Max is double-peaked and we are in the valley between peaks. If so, solar activity could surge again in late 2013-2014. No one can say for sure, though. Researchers have been studying sunspots for more than 400 years, and we still cannot predict the behavior of the solar cycle. Continued quiet or stormy space weather? Both are possible in the weeks and months ahead. Solar flare alerts:text, voice."

[GaWx]

Sun activity continues (for the last week) to be very low. There are some that speculate that the coming minimum may be very low and long lasting. What kind of effect this has on climate is being debated. From Space Weather; they think we may be between a double maximum, but I think we're heading down.

<spaceweather.com>

"The quiet spell is a bit strange because 2013 is supposed to be a year of solar maximum, with lots of flares and sunspots. Supporting this view are data from NASA-supported observatories which show that the sun's magnetic field is poised to flip--a long-held sign that Solar Max has arrived. Nevertheless, solar activity is low.

One possible explanation is that Solar Max is double-peaked and we are in the valley between peaks. If so, solar activity could surge again in late 2013-2014. No one can say for sure, though. Researchers have been studying sunspots for more than 400 years, and we still cannot predict the behavior of the solar cycle. Continued quiet or stormy space weather? Both are possible in the weeks and months ahead. Solar flare alerts:text,voice."

I've been leaning to a max around 2014 to as late as early 2015 based on the pattern of past cycles. So, I'm leaning more toward a double max scenario as of now. However, this cycle has unusual characteristics and I'm keeping my mind open to the chance the max has already passed. I've also been posting in the "All Solar" topic of the Climate Change forum for a couple of years that I'm expecting the subsequent cycle (#25) to be even weaker than the current one based on the pattern around the early 1800's Dalton Minimum. In my opinion, there's a pretty good chance that cycle 25 will be the weakest since the Dalton minimum. As it is, cycle 24 looks to be the weakest in close to 100 years.

The big question for me (which I've discussed in that same forum) is whether or not thus will cause a significant global cooldown between now and about 2030. I'm thinking this is possible based on the cooldown of the better part of 0.5 C (1880-1910), which followed the 1875-1910 sunspot slowdown, and the fact that 1950-2000 was the most active 50 year period sunspotwise in at least 350 years and quite likely longer than that. I'm keeping my mind open to the possibility that the late 20th century sunspot activity/high sunflux was a more major contributor to global warming than many have been assuming. IF that turn out to be the case, then that would tell me there's a good chance that the current solar grand minimum would likely cause a pretty significant global cooldown over the next 20 years or so. However, if we're going to see that significant cooldown, I'd expect to see evidence of that by around 2018. If not, I'd probably then abandon my thinking about a possible significant upcoming global cooldown. The truth is that nobody really knows since the combo of the current solar grand minimum and recent very strong solar maximum hasn't occurred in 350+ years. Exciting times climowise, folks!

[CandymanColumbusGA]

I'm guilty of this.... I can't help it that pumpkin spiced things taste soooo gooooood.