September 2013 Pattern and Discussion

[DCMetroWinston]

Highs in the 60s coming up, although we also had that in August this year.

[nchighcountrywx]

Triple cold fronts on the way!

[DCMetroWinston]

WXII is going with highs in the 60s, lows in 40s on Saturday.

[FallsLake]

As we head into the Fall/winter weather pattern the NAO will start having a greater impact. Currently looks like it is heading neutral to slightly negative over the next couple of weeks. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

[LithiaWx]

Should easily be the coldest night of the season to date tonight.

[jburns]

WXII is going with highs in the 60s, lows in 40s on Saturday.

NWS 55, 74.

[mackerel_sky]

Man, it's dry now! Less than .50 an inch for the month imby! It's getting dusty out there, and not much in sight for the next 10 days. Almost a complete 180 in the pattern for September as opposed to the earlier part of summer. Cool is better, but lower dewpoints, dry the ground out that much faster.

[WidreMann]

Man, it's dry now! Less than .50 an inch for the month imby! It's getting dusty out there, and not much in sight for the next 10 days. Almost a complete 180 in the pattern for September as opposed to the earlier part of summer. Cool is better, but lower dewpoints, dry the ground out that much faster.

Bad sign for the winter.

[LithiaWx]

Bad sign for the winter.

D-

[FLweather]

Normally the dryest month is Oct. So repectively it would be expected given this time of year. Considering the pattern we have been in the East even with a slight drought does not dictate what winter it shall be. Yes Im not 100% correct but you are a good distance away. Dry upon dry upon dry yes maybe a shi*y a ****ty year. But ya can't deney the fact of a stormy cool summer. All honesty reminds me of the 01-02 02-03 time frame.

 

Bad sign for the winter.

[WidreMann]

Normally the dryest month is Oct. So repectively it would be expected given this time of year. Considering the pattern we have been in the East even with a slight drought does not dictate what winter it shall be. Yes Im not 100% correct but you are a good distance away. Dry upon dry upon dry yes maybe a shi*y a ****ty year. But ya can't deney the fact of a stormy cool summer. All honesty reminds me of the 01-02 02-03 time frame.

The pattern shifted in August. I've seen this happen before. What it shifts *to* in August is relevant to winter. This year, it shifted away from cool and wet towards warmer (but not really hot) and much drier.

 

I don't know why you're talking about October.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Wasn't expecting this summer to end so incredibly dry. Don't recall anyone forecasting such an incredibly dry weather pattern. Unbelievable. Grass is dying. Ground is getting very crunchy. Don't think it's rained in a month.

[DCMetroWinston]

It really exposes how bad long range forecasting still is.

[kvegas-wx]

45 days ago i was squishing water underneath the riding lawnmower because i had to mow when wet just to get it done. Today i sucked down a bucket full of dust and the grass wont be growing back anytime soon. One other observation, in the last 10 days my fully loaded apple tree dropped every single apple before they were ripe. Also had several trees drop brown leaves to the point where they are almost bare. Never turned color. Just dropped the leaves. Very odd......

[metalicwx366]

Wasn't expecting this summer to end so incredibly dry. Don't recall anyone forecasting such an incredibly dry weather pattern. Unbelievable. Grass is dying. Ground is getting very crunchy. Don't think it's rained in a month.

Fritschy nailed it!

Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will. Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up. Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture. Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so.

[FallsLake]

Big jump in moisture last night. Went to bed with dew points in the upper 50s and woke up this moring with them in the mid 60s. Almost feels like summer again.

 

Currently getting some heavy rain showers through northern Wake county. Looks like front will pass Raleigh late this afternoon and we'll be back in the cooler air mass.

[dsaur]

Fritschy nailed it!

Come out of the basement MetalMan.  "Next 60 to 90 days wetter than normal?  That's a bust right there.  If I were to get much below normal winter rains I'd be way wetter than I am now, barely a month out from that prediction.  Less than a quarter inch in over a month is not wetter than normal, ever!  Ever, ever, lol.  Less than a quarter inch is drought, deep dark, life ending drought, not wetter than normal.  Maybe wetter than normal in the Atacama. Hell, the south pole gets more precip than I do.

  Just venting...I'm all better now   T

[Cold Rain]

Big jump in moisture last night. Went to bed with dew points in the upper 50s and woke up this moring with them in the mid 60s. Almost feels like summer again.

Currently getting some heavy rain showers through northern Wake county. Looks like front will pass Raleigh late this afternoon and we'll be back in the cooler air mass.

Awesome! Bodes well for winter.

[Tacoma]

Fritschy nailed it!

Thanks, I try to get it right once in awhile.   Really dry now.  We do need some rain.

[metalicwx366]

Come out of the basement MetalMan. "Next 60 to 90 days wetter than normal? That's a bust right there. If I were to get much below normal winter rains I'd be way wetter than I am now, barely a month out from that prediction. Less than a quarter inch in over a month is not wetter than normal, ever! Ever, ever, lol. Less than a quarter inch is drought, deep dark, life ending drought, not wetter than normal. Maybe wetter than normal in the Atacama. Hell, the south pole gets more precip than I do.

Just venting...I'm all better now T

Lol a tropical storm will give you the wetter than normal forecast at the end of the month or in October.

[dsaur]

Yeah, boy, that makes me feel better   In case you haven't noticed in the basement, the tropical season in the area where it might affect me was almost record late, and the few feeble attempts at organization are running off in all directions except for this way.  Even you, in your Ga. arm pit, have had more rain than me, even without anything tropical in many, many months.  I figure there is maybe a 5% chance anything tropical finds my yard this year.  Now that may go up if a depression can find the low road to the Caribbean, or the northern route out of the gulf, but so far I won't hold my breath on that.  My best chance of rain seems to be the sprinkler and my deep well.  Tony

[FLweather]

The way you appear you ready to call it quits on winter before it even started or you just trollin.

 

The reason why I mentioned October is... "Normally the dryest month is Oct. So repectively it would be expected given this time of year." If you aint noticed around here the fall time dry spell kicks in from Sept-Nov with October the dryest. So thats the reason the reason why I mentioned October. Even though there is a dry spell period I believe is a hiccup. Just wait.... this winter will be better the last 2-3 years. More potential in this year.

The pattern shifted in August. I've seen this happen before. What it shifts *to* in August is relevant to winter. This year, it shifted away from cool and wet towards warmer (but not really hot) and much drier.

 

I don't know why you're talking about October.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Has there ever been a more dramatic shift from extreme wetness to extreme dryness ?

[NCSNOW]

Well models have given us some hope overnight for our mini drought relief. Looks like we will see a surface low close off and ride SW to NE across the SE late weekend into early next week. Fingers crossed as I need to do some over-seeding/feeding of the lawn. Been holding back for over 2 weeks waiting on promising forecast (i.e rain) to accomplish the task. Stay Tuned. 1- 3 inch rain event over 3 day spell would be nice, no doubt those in the deep south should get a pretty good dose of H20.

[metalicwx366]

Looks like a heavy rain event coming for Sunday and Monday .

[Cold Rain]

The Euro is now on board as well. The GFS has been showing the threat off and on. Now, it, the Euro, the Ukie, and the CMC all show a SE cut-off and heavy rain threat, with plenty of tropical moisture. Confidence is increasing....

[Jon]

The way you appear you ready to call it quits on winter before it even started or you just trollin.

 

The reason why I mentioned October is... "Normally the dryest month is Oct. So repectively it would be expected given this time of year." If you aint noticed around here the fall time dry spell kicks in from Sept-Nov with October the dryest. So thats the reason the reason why I mentioned October. Even though there is a dry spell period I believe is a hiccup. Just wait.... this winter will be better the last 2-3 years. More potential in this year.

I agree. I think it will be spectacular for the NE, we'll be on the border of 33 and rain vs snowstorms but I think we'll have a lot of legit chances. Way too far out to talk about specifics though. I disagree with Widretroll's August shift = Winter pattern theory. He's seen it before, though.

[Cold Rain]

I agree. I think it will be spectacular for the NE, we'll be on the border of 33 and rain vs snowstorms but I think we'll have a lot of legit chances. Way too far out to talk about specifics though. I disagree with Widretroll's August shift = Winter pattern theory. He's seen it before, though.

I don't see any evidence one way or another at this point as to what the winter will offer. I don't think it's logical to cancel winter, based in a late summer pattern shift that may or may not be relatively temporary.

If I were making a prediction at this point, I'd go with a blend of the outcomes of the past few years, which keeps most of us mostly free of really significant winter weather events and frequent Arctic outbreaks. Persistence is hard to dislodge. I think a lot of our problems have been due to the pac jet being on fire. If evidence begins to mount that that thing can lose some steam this year, then we'll have a much higher shot at a good winter, IMO. Otherwise, we're back to marginal cold and timing issues.

[WidreMann]

I don't see any evidence one way or another at this point as to what the winter will offer. I don't think it's logical to cancel winter, based in a late summer pattern shift that may or may not be relatively temporary.

If I were making a prediction at this point, I'd go with a blend of the outcomes of the past few years, which keeps most of us mostly free of really significant winter weather events and frequent Arctic outbreaks. Persistence is hard to dislodge. I think a lot of our problems have been due to the pac jet being on fire. If evidence begins to mount that that thing can lose some steam this year, then we'll have a much higher shot at a good winter, IMO. Otherwise, we're back to marginal cold and timing issues.

On the plus side, there are some major positive anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska that have been sorely lacking in previous years. We'll see if these anomalies are a lag indicator or a lead predictor.

[NCSNOW]

Heavy Rain as the main dish and some CAD on the side make for a perfect Sept made to order forecast. Fingers crossed!

 

RAH/NWS

 

THE DEEPENING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS
PROJECTED TO INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH-NORTHERN
GULF. THIS SFC FEATURE PROJECTED TO LIFT NEWD LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...POSITIONED SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF COLUMBIA SC (EITHER A
LITTLE WEST OR LITTLE EAST) BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS SFC FLOW IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PARENT HIGH (1030MB) OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC MAY
CAUSE A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT FOR THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY MORNING.
(STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE
COOL STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS). INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OF THE
TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW...COULD SEE HEAVY/LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
SECTIONS FOE CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THIS SYSTEM
STILL EVOLVING...SO PLAN TO CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY MID 70S TO AROUND 80 SUNDAY...AND LOWER 70S
NW TO AROUND 80 SE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS INT EH 60S
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY WEDNESDAY.

SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE E-NE. EXPECT
TO EXPERIENCE LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO
TUESDAY THEN A TREND TO DRIER WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY.

MAX TEMPS TRICKY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DEPENDENT ON AREAL EXTENT
OF SHOWERS AND WHETHER A CAD EVENT EVOLVES OVER THE PIEDMONT MONDAY.
HAVE SHADED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IF A CAD DOES OCCUR MONDAY...DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT MAY HOLD IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY MID 70S TO AROUND 80
SUNDAY...AND LOWER 70S NW TO AROUND 80 SE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. MIN
TEMPS IN THE 60S SUNDAY...GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&