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September 2013 Pattern and Discussion

wx n of atl

By wx n of atl,
in Southeastern States

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

I have to say, I'm happy to see the pleasant weather. I fear the beginnings of a fall dry period, which usually doesn't bode well for winter. Either way, I'm going to enjoy this weather.

I don’t have any climate facts to back this up but from my observations over the years it seems:

  • Cool summer equates to a warm winter
  • Cool / cold October would equate to a cold winter  
  • Cold November equates to a warm winter
  • A storm around Halloween equates to a warm winter

Not sure if this even has any merit because it’s straight from memory. Maybe some of the above could be explained by the predominate (NAO, PNA, AO) pattern at those time and then the tendency to flip to the opposite pattern when winter starts.     

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

I don’t have any climate facts to back this up but from my observations over the years it seems:

  • Cool summer equates to a warm winter
  • Cool / cold October would equate to a cold winter  
  • Cold November equates to a warm winter
  • A storm around Halloween equates to a warm winter

Not sure if this even has any merit because it’s straight from memory. Maybe some of the above could be explained by the predominate (NAO, PNA, AO) pattern at those time and then the tendency to flip to the opposite pattern when winter starts.     

 

Ah!  The ol' correlation versus causation dilemma.  We're totally going off your memory here, but if each of your four observations/recollections is correct, does the first event actually cause the second event?  Or is there some underlying explanatory variable that we're not accounting for here?  I think you're on to a good start with your idea concerning the pattern changes that can't sustain themselves for super-long periods of time.  I'm by no means a climatologist, so I'll not even pretend to gather all that data necessary to study your claim.

 

This sounds like a job for Larry!  Send out the ice cream signal!  :icecream:

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

I don’t have any climate facts to back this up but from my observations over the years it seems:

  • Cool summer equates to a warm winter
  • Cool / cold October would equate to a cold winter  
  • Cold November equates to a warm winter
  • A storm around Halloween equates to a warm winter
Not sure if this even has any merit because it’s straight from memory. Maybe some of the above could be explained by the predominate (NAO, PNA, AO) pattern at those time and then the tendency to flip to the opposite pattern when winter starts.     

Three out of four give a warm winter. Sounds about right.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Ah!  The ol' correlation versus causation dilemma.  We're totally going off your memory here, but if each of your four observations/recollections is correct, does the first event actually cause the second event?  Or is there some underlying explanatory variable that we're not accounting for here?  I think you're on to a good start with your idea concerning the pattern changes that can't sustain themselves for super-long periods of time.  I'm by no means a climatologist, so I'll not even pretend to gather all that data necessary to study your claim.

 

This sounds like a job for Larry!  Send out the ice cream signal!  :icecream:

Now that's funny.  A huge ice cream cone in the sky to call the Larry man :)  Sherlock had his deer stalker and pipe, Larry has his cone and abacus, lol.  T

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Ah!  The ol' correlation versus causation dilemma.  We're totally going off your memory here, but if each of your four observations/recollections is correct, does the first event actually cause the second event?  Or is there some underlying explanatory variable that we're not accounting for here?  I think you're on to a good start with your idea concerning the pattern changes that can't sustain themselves for super-long periods of time.  I'm by no means a climatologist, so I'll not even pretend to gather all that data necessary to study your claim.

 

This sounds like a job for Larry!  Send out the ice cream signal!  :icecream:

 

 Did I just see a giant ice cream signal? Wow! Yummy! ;) Actually, I had Breyers chocolate last night...awesome!

 

 I did actually do a small analysis of the wettest Jan.-Augusts at Atlanta since 1879, but it was a very small sample because 2013 is almost the wettest among only about three other years nearby. Those three subsequent winters at KATL averaged near normal overall for DJF temp.'s and I think also for precip. There was one cold Jan.,1976. However, S/IP at KATL for those three averaged solidly below normal. So, I have no choice but to disqualify this study due to too it being small a sample lmao.

 

 I've yet to analyze the winters following cool summers (dry or wet), but would think there's some overlap of cool and wet summers. If I decide to do a cool summer analysis per se, I'll post the results as long as they show cold and/or S/IP lol.

 

Tony,

 I just saw two moles roaming around on the southside of Savannah. What's up with that? I was wondering if they could be part of your mole stable since your moles' whereabouts are still a mystery. I approached them with some ice cream, but they ran away from me faster than Jesse Owens. That tells me they're very likely not yours since we all know yours have a big sweet tooth. I guess the real test would have been if I offered them a drink since you said they occasionally like to party lol.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

For Fri-Sun...

 

 

From Greenville:

GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD IN THE OP MODELS WITHTHE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MED RANGE. UPPER HEIGHTSWILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE H5 TROF AXIS SWINGS OVER THE EAST COASTTHROUGH SAT ENABLING A RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA FRI.POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE CHANCE RANGE AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILLBE SUSPECT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR A BIT BELOW NORMALFRI. MODERATE AND DEEP LAYERED NW/LY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE TROFAXIS AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL FORCE A CP SFC HIGH OVER THE GREATLAKES AND OFF THE ATL COAST THROUGH MON. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD MIXOF LOWER THETA/E WITH THIS FEATURE HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO FALL LIKELEVELS...U70S NON/MTNS AND L70S MTN VALLEYS SAT/SUN.
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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

From Raleigh:

COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A DRY AND MILDLY ARCTIC-TINGED AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TOSLOWLY FILTER IN FOR THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL CLEAR FRIDAY WITH NEARSEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 RANGE.A SUPERB FOOTBALL WEEKEND IS ON TAP AS THICKNESSES FALL 20 TO 25METERS BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MORNING LOWSSATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S...WITH HIGHS TOPPINGOUT (OR BOTTOMING OUT...IF YOU PREFER) IN THE MID 70S. TEMPS WILLFALL QUICKLY INTO THE SWEATER RANGE SATURDAY EVENING...AND BOTTOMOUT IN THE LOW 50S SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL MODIFY JUST ABIT UNDER STRONG INSOLATION AND WEAKENING COOL AIR ADVECTION...MAINLY 75 TO 80.
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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

From Raleigh:

COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...

OTHERWISE A DRY AND MILDLY ARCTIC-TINGED AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO

SLOWLY FILTER IN FOR THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL CLEAR FRIDAY WITH NEAR

SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 RANGE.

A SUPERB FOOTBALL WEEKEND IS ON TAP AS THICKNESSES FALL 20 TO 25

METERS BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MORNING LOWS

SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S...WITH HIGHS TOPPING

OUT (OR BOTTOMING OUT...IF YOU PREFER) IN THE MID 70S. TEMPS WILL

FALL QUICKLY INTO THE SWEATER RANGE SATURDAY EVENING...AND BOTTOM

OUT IN THE LOW 50S SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL MODIFY JUST A

BIT UNDER STRONG INSOLATION AND WEAKENING COOL AIR ADVECTION...

MAINLY 75 TO 80.

That is a description of the perfect weekend.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

 

 I've yet to analyze the winters following cool summers (dry or wet), but would think there's some overlap of cool and wet summers. If I decide to do a cool summer analysis per se, I'll post the results as long as they show cold and/or S/IP lol.

 

Tony,

 I just saw two moles roaming around on the southside of Savannah. What's up with that? I was wondering if they could be part of your mole stable since your moles' whereabouts are still a mystery. I approached them with some ice cream, but they ran away from me faster than Jesse Owens. That tells me they're very likely not yours since we all know yours have a big sweet tooth. I guess the real test would have been if I offered them a drink since you said they occasionally like to party lol.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

 

 

 I've yet to analyze the winters following cool summers (dry or wet), but would think there's some overlap of cool and wet summers. If I decide to do a cool summer analysis per se, I'll post the results as long as they show cold and/or S/IP lol.

 

Tony,

 I just saw two moles roaming around on the southside of Savannah. What's up with that? I was wondering if they could be part of your mole stable since your moles' whereabouts are still a mystery. I approached them with some ice cream, but they ran away from me faster than Jesse Owens. That tells me they're very likely not yours since we all know yours have a big sweet tooth. I guess the real test would have been if I offered them a drink since you said they occasionally (always) like to party lol.

Yes, it is important that ip be a part of any discussion of cooler than normal summers, and the winters that follow.  Cold air is like the cone...fine, and tasty, but much more potent with ice cream/ip stuffed in :)

  I fixed the above for you and I think it is a large part of the mysterious disappearance of the Moles, and any rain chances in the cursed lands.  I have received intelligence which points to an unfortunate misunderstanding whilst the Moles were totally blind blasted...they heard reports of weapons of Mole destruction mentioned on the tv machine.  Couple that with a limo, more booze, and my unfortunate decision to let them leave the underground sled testing facility...and, well..... it may never rain here again.  .02 for Sept. paints an ugly picture.  The last 6 precipitation events occurring while the sun was out.  We can't even cry over it in the cursed lands..we need to conserve the water.  I am hoping for a surprisingly cold 850 reading before the month is out, followed by a land falling hurricane...it may be my only chance for decent rain in this very dry part of the year. Tony

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 

 

 

 I've yet to analyze the winters following cool summers (dry or wet), but would think there's some overlap of cool and wet summers. If I decide to do a cool summer analysis per se, I'll post the results as long as they show cold and/or S/IP lol.

 

Tony,

 I just saw two moles roaming around on the southside of Savannah. What's up with that? I was wondering if they could be part of your mole stable since your moles' whereabouts are still a mystery. I approached them with some ice cream, but they ran away from me faster than Jesse Owens. That tells me they're very likely not yours since we all know yours have a big sweet tooth. I guess the real test would have been if I offered them a drink since you said they occasionally (always) like to party lol.

Yes, it is important that ip be a part of any discussion of cooler than normal summers, and the winters that follow.  Cold air is like the cone...fine, and tasty, but much more potent with ice cream/ip stuffed in :)

  I fixed the above for you and I think it is a large part of the mysterious disappearance of the Moles, and any rain chances in the cursed lands.  I have received intelligence which points to an unfortunate misunderstanding whilst the Moles were totally blind blasted...they heard reports of weapons of Mole destruction mentioned on the tv machine.  Couple that with a limo, more booze, and my unfortunate decision to let them leave the underground sled testing facility...and, well..... it may never rain here again.  .02 for Sept. paints an ugly picture.  The last 6 precipitation events occurring while the sun was out.  We can't even cry over it in the cursed lands..we need to conserve the water.  I am hoping for a surprisingly cold 850 reading before the month is out, followed by a land falling hurricane...it may be my only chance for decent rain in this very dry part of the year. Tony

 

 Ok, they ALWAYS like to party. Got it. I'll try to keep that straight. Keep the alcohol always available in addition to the ice cream.

 

 Weapons of Mole destruction (WMD's)..classic Tony! By the way, I just had some more delicious Breyer's chocolate ice cream that your moles could have had. Actually, when they finally decide to come here, I'm going to take them to a fabulous ice cream shop on the beach.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

There is a10 degree difference between the NAM and GFS on Saturday at 18z. GFS has us at 72, NAM at 62.

 

So it looks like you are back in the Queen City...nice.

 

The NAM is showing overcast on the total clouds field, while the GFS is mostly sunny, so that would explain the difference I think.  Suspect the NAM is on crack with the heavy clouds, but we'll see.  Looks like an awesome weekend on tap except for the folks that dig gust fronts, hailstorms, tornadoes, squall lines, hurricanes, and flooding rains.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

So it looks like you are back in the Queen City...nice.

 

The NAM is showing overcast on the total clouds field, while the GFS is mostly sunny, so that would explain the difference I think.  Suspect the NAM is on crack with the heavy clouds, but we'll see.  Looks like an awesome weekend on tap except for the folks that dig gust fronts, hailstorms, tornadoes, squall lines, hurricanes, and flooding rains.

12 NAM has a CADesh look for portions of SE NC into central SC. There would be light precip with temps struggling throu the 60s. GFS does not show this setup. Personally, for my area it will be nice no matter which is correct. 

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

12z GFS still showing a very nice cool down for this weekend. Dew points look to crash into the upper 30s acoss northern NC with actual lows in the mid-upper 40s. NWS still has my location forecasted at 51; which may still be correct if wind and cloud cover are present. But sure would like to see 40s.

First we have to get through a pathetic frontal passage with a few drops maybe?!? But they have been going between 47-53 last few days for Sunday morning here. I believe they maybe a little gun-ho on the cloud cover but  there maybe near perfect conditions radiational cooling Saturday night. If it does the 40s for you would not be out of the question. Even here there is a very high potential for lows to be in the 40-44 range depending on exactly how much dry air comes in.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

As far as I'm concerned Fall starts late Friday. RAH continues to forecast the big cool down for this weekend with the (secondary) cold front passing Friday night.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...

DRY AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION

NICELY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...

SOUNDINGS NOW INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE

FLOW WILL INITIALLY GET TRAPPED UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION NEAR

H85. A MUCH COOLER NE FLOW BELOW A STILL WARM LAYER ABOVE JUST

BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THEREFORE... INSTEAD OF A SUNNY FORECAST

INITIALLY SATURDAY... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF

STRATOCUMULUS TO DEAL WITH. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE

TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME

SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TO BECOME PARTLY

CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE

SETTLES OVER VIRGINIA LATE IN THE DAY. THE SOUTH AND WEST PORTIONS

OF OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE LAST TO SEE IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS

SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUN... WITH CONTINUED CAA.

EXPECT MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 70S... EXCEPT SOME UPPER 60S IN THE

CLOUDIER AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT. SOME OF MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE

EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SW

PIEDMONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS... WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS.

ELSEWHERE... THE SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE HIGH

PRESSURE MOVES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS

WILL ALSO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PARTICULAR AIR

MASS. LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S NORTH AND

EAST... WITH MID 50S SW.

SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED REMAIN OVER THE REGION

THROUGH THE DAY. DRIER MID LEVELS SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE

WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE MIXING WITH HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD REACH BACK

INTO THE 77-82 RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT

AND VARIABLE.

ON MONDAY...THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR

LATE MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A DRY PRE-FRONTAL

ENVIRONMENT WITH LACK OF BOTH MOISTURE... INSTABILITY AND LIFT

MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT... THERE IS ALSO A GENERAL

CONSENSUS OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRATOCUMULUS/STRATUS LATE MONDAY

NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SINCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO

TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND... THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE

RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW INTO OUR REGION TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST

AND MAY EVEN LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES AS WELL. THERE

IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COOLER/CLOUDIER FORECAST

BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE IS ONLY LOW

CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAIN AT THIS TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY... PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE

LOWER TO MID 80S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... CLOUDY TO VARIABLY

CLOUDY... COOLER. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

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